Market Briefs | January 9, 2026

Rice
The rice market had rough year, having lost 31.9% of its value during 2025. Nearby futures made an eight-year low on a front-month basis in late December. However, it is possible this market is finally establishing a bottom, with March futures closing above previous resistance at $10. World supplies have been burdensome, and competition from Asia made it difficult to sell the large 2024 crop, with carryover stocks ballooning over the past two years. The market is beginning to question the size of the 2026 crop, though, given the current situation and outlook for rice, and that could bolster prices. Rice farmers will receive the largest per-acre payment from USDA's bridge program - $132.89 per acre.

Corn
March corn futures continue to drift sideways, extending a range-bound pattern that has persisted for nearly four months. With little fresh fundamental news ahead of Monday's USDA January Crop Production and December Stocks reports, the market appears content to wait for direction. Current trade expectations point to a modest decline in U.S. corn yields of roughly two bushels per acre to an estimated, yet still record, 184 bpa. Production could fall by approximately 200 million bushels as a result of late-season dryness in portions of the Corn Belt. From a technical perspective, the broader trend remains upward, though prices are testing key support zones. A failure to hold support could invite downside pressure, though that is not our base-case expectation. Near-term support for March corn is seen around $4.35, with resistance in the $4.50 to $4.55 range. Looking ahead into early 2026, corn prices are expected to remain largely rangebound unless USDA data or demand trends force a repricing.

Soybeans
The soybean complex continues to struggle, with futures resuming their decline after only a brief bounce late in December. The selloff intensified into the new year, breaking short-term technical support levels. Despite the continued weakness, there are signs the market may be nearing exhaustion. Open interest has collapsed sharply, a technical signal often associated with large speculative liquidation rather than the start of a new downtrend. Importantly, March soybean futures have continued to hold the $10.35 to $10.40 support zone. Given the magnitude and speed of the recent decline, this is viewed as a year-end speculator washout rather than a continuation of December's bearish momentum. While fundamental challenges remain, including demand uncertainty, technical conditions suggest downside risk may be becoming more limited in the near term.

Wheat
Wheat markets reacted midweek to rising concerns about Plains weather, as record high temperatures and expanding dryness pressured crop conditions. Several state-level good-to-excellent ratings declined, and drought coverage across winter wheat areas has now expanded to roughly 40%. Chicago March wheat continues to respect major technical support near $5.04. Although prices briefly slipped below this level late last week, futures rebounded to close above support, preserving the broader structure. Kansas City wheat remains comparatively stronger, with major support established at $5.03 on December 17 and prices holding well above that level. Weather developments will remain a key driver for wheat markets in the weeks ahead.

Cotton
Cotton futures remain under heavy pressure from weak demand. The trade deal with China did not include cotton, and they remain mostly out of the U.S. cotton market. Vietnam has led purchases, but without demand from China, the market remains near contract lows. Crude oil prices under $60 a barrel result in cheaper competition from synthetics, which could also limit demand for cotton. March futures made a new two-month high on Tuesday at 65.76 cents, but the market turned lower by the close. USDA announced last week that farmers who planted cotton in 2025 will be eligible for payments of $117.35 per acre. We are still six weeks away from our first estimates for the 2026 crop, but after three years of economic losses on cotton acres, farmers are likely to look for other options.

Cattle
After a record-breaking year, live and feeder cattle futures prices trended mostly sideways for the last few weeks of 2025. However, futures began 2026 with a bang, posting sharp gains and breaking through key chart resistance suggesting that another leg up is possible. Reports of new New World Screwworm cases in northern Mexico provided support, especially since it will likely mean that the ban on cattle imports from Mexico will remain in place.

Hogs
Lean hog futures have displayed bearish chart action in recent days, breaking out of the sharp uptrend that began in November. The December USDA inventory report showed larger-than-expected supplies of hogs on Dec. 1, suggesting ample supplies and further price pressure in the first quarter of 2026. However, supplies are projected to decline into the spring and summer months.