Doha Strikes Highlight Clashing Visions of the Middle East

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian

Published September 24, 2025

The split screen of Israeli strikes on Doha targeting Hamas leaders in Qatari-mediated ceasefire discussions illustrates the stark contrast in regional approaches to shaping the Middle East's emerging order. The Gulf-the region's center of gravity-prioritizes de-escalation and conflict mediation, while Israel-the region's preeminent military power-seeks to "change the face of the Middle East" through muscular military interventions. Barring strong U.S. leadership that forges a shared path forward, these clashing visions portend a chaotic Middle East with global reverberations.

The September 9 attack marked a watershed for the region: the first time Israel unleashed air strikes on a Gulf capital, killing a Qatari security officer alongside five Hamas members. The Israeli strikes sparked global and regional outrage, prompting leaders from the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to hold an emergency summit in Doha. The resulting communiqué strongly condemned the attack on a "neutral venue for mediation," highlighting Qatar's mediating role and the violation of international mediation and peacemaking principles. Just hours before the Israeli strikes, Qatari officials met with one of the Israeli hostages' families, desperate to bring their loved one home.

The Middle East is at a "hinge moment," and the Doha strikes occurred against the backdrop of a tectonic shift in the Middle East where the prevailing U.S.-dominated order is vanishing. With the United States increasingly viewed as distracted and unreliable, regional actors instead are vying to shape the contours of a new Middle East. They are leveraging their respective instruments of power-whether military, economic, or diplomatic-to create a new regional order that advantages their interests.

Qatar has sought to influence the region's trajectory via its diplomatic prowess backed by its extraordinary wealth. With mediation enshrined in its constitution as a core element of its foreign policy, Qatar has played a key mediating role in several conflicts, including Gaza, interceding between Israel and Hamas over multiple rounds of negotiations. Its efforts were central to earlier hostage release and ceasefire deals in November 2023 and again in January 2025.

More broadly, Gulf countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, look to establish themselves as "middle power" mediators, de-escalating conflicts ranging from Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan, and beyond. They want to shape the contours of an emerging order in the region that replaces decades of conflict with stability and economic growth. Their focus on mediation stems from a deeper existential imperative to calm regional tensions in order to have space to diversify their economies and prepare for a post-oil Middle East.

By contrast, reeling from the trauma of October 7, with the most Jews killed in a single day since the Holocaust, Israel has pursued an aggressive military policy designed to ensure that Israel will never again suffer a similar attack. Israeli military actions since October 7 include strikes on at least five countries across the region, de facto buffer zones in Syria and Lebanon, and vows to hit Hamas operatives "wherever they are." Some Israeli interventions have produced important gains quietly applauded by some in the region. In this view, the decimation of Hezbollah was a key driver in the collapse of Syria's Assad regime, which in turn contributed to Iran's dramatic weakening, all of which lessened the longstanding threat to regional stability posed by Iran and its proxies.

But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exploited Israel's kinetic focus to undertake increasingly brazen attacks such as the Doha strikes-at times putting him at odds with his defense and intelligence leadership. Doubling down on Israel projecting its military might, he recently promoted a controversial vision of Israel as a "super Sparta." Yet, Israel has proven unable to translate its military gains into enduring strategic wins by pivoting to diplomacy. Instead, its expanding military actions have drawn mounting criticism that Israel is acting with impunity and flouting international law.

Israel's provocative behavior, in turn, is leading to a greater convergence among Arab and Muslim powers, increasingly drawn together by their joint enmity toward Israel. Gulf Cooperation Council countries-at one time bitterly divided-have drawn closer together, with an agreement to enhance joint security measures. The emergency summit's tableau of Saudi Arabia's presumptive leader, Gulf sheikhs, and the Iranian president alongside the leaders of Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, among others, highlights a remarkable shift in regional dynamics within the past five years. Israel has now replaced Iran as the region's perceived preeminent threat. To further emphasize the point, two days later, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the only Muslim majority nuclear powers, announced a mutual defense pact.

On its current trajectory, the region is headed toward deepening instability as neither Israel nor the Gulf can translate their vision into a viable end state. The Gulf's efforts at de-escalation and economic diversification will remain stymied by Israel's ongoing kinetic actions, while Israel's military strategy is unlikely to lead to its establishment as the region's undisputed power. Instead, the region likely will descend further into chaos-a Hobbesian Middle East without guardrails. That instability will not remain contained; it will threaten global interests, with its reverberations undermining international peace and security.

Yet, there is another option. The United States remains an indispensable player in the drama unfolding in the Middle East. No other actor exerts the requisite power and influence over the region's key stakeholders to compel them toward peace and stability. At the outset of the second Trump administration, President Trump's Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff-channeling his yet-to-be-inaugurated boss-was widely credited with playing a key role in achieving the January 2025 ceasefire, a testament to Trump's influence over Netanyahu.

Elsewhere in the region, the administration has also exerted important influence over the Lebanese government, which took the unprecedented decision to disarm Hezbollah. While Hezbollah's disarmament is far from complete, Trump Special Envoy Tom Barrack has played an important role in pushing the agreement forward via shuttle diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon. Barrack has also played a critical role in negotiating between Israel and Syria, with a security agreement between the countries potentially in the offing.

With regional powers competing to define a new order in the Middle East, the region is poised between deepening conflict and the distant prospect of peace. Trump administration diplomacy with Lebanon and Syria underscores its potential to play a central role in de-escalating regional tensions and helping to usher the region toward an era of peace and stability. Five years after the Abraham Accords-arguably one of Trump's most significant accomplishments-the administration can once again use diplomacy to catalyze regional transformation. It can exercise its significant leverage on Israel to demand that it refrain from further military escalation and move toward a permanent Gaza ceasefire, while exhorting Gulf partners to redouble diplomatic efforts toward a more stable and prosperous Middle East. Taken together, these moves could help ensure the region's hinge moment leads to peace.

Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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