UOB sees new phases for global economy as AI becomes key driver of growth

BANGKOK, 10 February 2026 - UOB Thailand says the global economy in 2026 is entering a new phase of growth led increasingly by the real-world deployment of artificial intelligence (AI), even as the recovery in the United States remains uneven and growth patterns become more fragmented.

In its start-of-year investment outlook, the Bank said sentiment has improved from 2025, supported by resilient corporate earnings, easing monetary conditions and faster technology adoption. However, these gains mask deeper shifts beneath the surface. AI is moving from experimentation to practical application across industries, emerging as a key driver of productivity, investment flows and earnings growth, even as broader economic momentum becomes less uniform.

Mr Abel Lim, Head of Deposit and Wealth Management at UOB Thailand said, "AI is no longer a supporting theme; it is becoming a core engine of growth. As the recovery remains uneven, investors should focus on quality, diversification and resilience instead of chasing short-term momentum."

UOB noted that the US economy is expected to continue expanding but along divergent paths. AI-related industries and higher-income consumers remain the primary drivers of growth, while traditional sectors and lower-income groups continue to face pressure, reinforcing a K-shaped recovery. This divergence increases volatility and reduces the effectiveness of broad, market-wide investment strategies.

At the same time, AI development is shifting decisively into real-world revenue generating applications. Investment is increasingly focused on areas such as automation, robotics, intelligent connectivity systems and next-generation vehicles. While the US remains the innovation leader, China's policy support for AI and related industries is accelerating regional investment opportunities across the region, particularly for companies with clear commercial applications.

China, UOB added, continues to anchor global diversification strategies. The country remains a key hub for electric vehicles (EV), advanced manufacturing, and communications, with leading firms increasingly generating revenue from overseas markets. This growing international presence helps to balance domestic headwinds and strengthens the country's long-term growth resilience.

Thailand's economic outlook for 2026 reflects a combination of sectoral strength and structural challenges. Services, led by tourism, are expected to remain the main growth, while manufacturing faces mounting pressure to modernise and shift towards New S-Curve industries such as electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductors and AI-related technologies.

Exports may soften following front-loaded shipments ahead of expected tariff changes, while the economy remains sensitive to trade uncertainty, deflationary pressures, natural-disaster risk, and post-election political developments. Nonetheless, household consumption, government spending, and tourism are expected to continue supporting growth, with a potential policy rate cut by the Bank of Thailand in the first quarter providing additional momentum.

To navigate market volatility in months ahead, UOB recommends a more balanced investment approach. This includes broadening exposure across regions and asset classes, focusing on companies with proven, real-world technologies, and building resilient income streams through high-quality fixed income instruments and dividend-paying equities to help cushion uncertainties.