Can Avis Budget Stock Fall 50%

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Shares of Avis Budget (CAR) have lost 33.1% since July 30, 2026, trailing a 4.4% gain for the S&P 500, and the company has not reported results since. A further 50% drop would not be new for the stock. The shares closed at $101.74 on October 28, 85.8% below their highest close of the past year, $713.97 on April 21, 2026. The shares fell 50% or more, high to low, in 5 of the 15 market shocks it has traded through since 2007. How far did the shares fall against the market in those shocks, and how long did they take to come back?

How Hard Have Market Shocks Hit Avis Budget Stock?

Avis Budget shares have historically fallen far harder than the broader market. During the deepest of the 15 shocks, the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the stock lost 97% of its value while the S&P 500 fell 53%. Across all 15 shocks, the shares fell 43% on average, compared with a 15.8% decline for the index. The company has also suffered heavy losses when the market fell far less. During the 2014-2016 oil price slump, Avis Budget gave up 64% while the S&P 500 fell 6.8%.

The wait for the stock to recover was often long. From the low of each shock, the median wait for the shares to regain their high was 11.2 months, and 7 of the 15 recovery periods lasted longer than a year. The longest wait came after the summer 2007 credit crunch and lasted 68.9 months, though the shares did return to their high in all 15 shocks.

Avis Budget's Margins Shrank As Its Debt Grew

Avis Budget recorded an operating margin of 4.8% over the four quarters to June 2026, down from 29.2% in the four quarters to June 2022. The company also posted a net loss of $636 million over those latest four quarters.

The company is also carrying far more debt than it used to. Avis Budget held $29.1 billion in debt at the end of June 2026, up from $17.1 billion five years earlier. By the October 28 close, that debt represented 811% of the company's market value, compared with 19.4% for the S&P 500.

Where Is Avis Budget Under Pressure Now?

Travel demand fell short of management's plan, which had expected growth from World Cup activity and a stronger summer for travel, and management chose to operate a smaller fleet. During the July 29, 2026 call, management said the Americas fleet ended the second quarter 5% smaller than a year earlier, and that overseas visitors to the U.S. were down 8% in the quarter. The international business faced more strain than the Americas segment. Excluding exchange rate effects, international revenue fell 2.5% from a year earlier. Profit in that segment fell 11% based on management's adjusted EBITDA measure, and management expected competition there to stay tougher in the third quarter.

Vehicle recalls are adding to the company's costs. Management said new recalls in April 2026 left a total of about 18,000 vehicles grounded. Recalls had cost Avis Budget more than $50 million so far in 2026, and management expected the second half to bring slightly over half that amount.

Avis Budget's debt is also likely to cost more to refinance. Management said new borrowing would probably cost 1 to 1.25 percentage points more than its existing debt. Management plans to cut its net corporate leverage ratio by at least one full turn of adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026. It expects $650 million from a Pentwater settlement and plans to use part to retire $350 million of notes due in 2027. As of the July call, that settlement still needed court approval. Avis Budget's leverage ratio stood at 7.4 times on the July call, and it is the measure to watch when the company reports in November 2026.

How To Act On CAR?

Now you know Avis Budget better. Our purpose is to inform you so you can decide for yourself, and acting on one stock, in either direction, carries its own risk.

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