Electricity generation from solar could exceed coal in ERCOT for the first time in 2026

In-brief analysis

In our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that annual electric power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass that from coal for the first time in 2026 within the electricity grid that covers most of Texas. Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2026 in the electricity grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) compared with 60 BkWh for coal.

Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth. Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44% of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar's share of the generation mix has increased from 4% to 12% in those years, while coal's share has decreased from 19% to 13%.

As ERCOT increasingly meets rising demand with renewable energy sources, we expect approximately 40% of total solar capacity additions in the United States in 2026, or 14 BkWh, to occur in Texas. Among the projects expected to come online in Texas this year is the combination solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) project Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS. At 837 megawatts (MW), we expect it is the largest solar photovoltaic project that will come online in 2026. Meanwhile, there are currently no plans to build new coal plants in ERCOT, according to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory report based on Form EIA-860M.

Although we expect solar generation to exceed coal generation on an annual basis for the first time in 2026, solar exceeded coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 BkWh exceeding coal's 4.16 BkWh. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year. In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar. We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.

In 2027, we forecast annual solar generation of 99 BkWh in ERCOT compared with 66 BkWh of annual coal generation. According to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, 11.8 BkWh of additional solar capacity is expected to come online in 2027. Meanwhile, electricity demand continues to rise in ERCOT due to increased large loads from cryptocurrency mining, data center buildout, rising industrial activity, and refining, production, and processing activities associated with oil and gas.

Principal contributor: Jonathan Church

Tags: generation, forecasts/projections, coal, electricity, STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook), solar