Everything Old Is New Again

Commentary by William Alan Reinsch

Published December 15, 2025

I am in the process of decluttering my office, which basically means taking a bunch of old books and studies home so my wife can nag me to get rid of them. It's very hard for me to throw away a book, and the ones being decluttered are not the kind that can be donated or even surreptitiously placed in one of the tiny libraries that inhabit several front lawns in my neighborhood. There is no room and no demand.

That does not, however, mean they do not matter. So, I looked through them to see if there were any nuggets of wisdom worth pulling out and passing on. It turns out there were, and here are some examples in no particular order:

"International trading patterns are likely to change dramatically as China increases both imports and exports. China will also acquire increasing political influence in world affairs as its economic, technological, and military strengths grow.... If China is to become a major power, it will be through developing its own capabilities throughout the economy."

Technology Transfer to China, Office of Technology Assessment, July 1987

"The United States…has been slow to recognize the changing nature of technological competition. As the nation wakes up to this new reality, it must reassess the roles played by all sectors-industry, academia, labor and government. The American economic system is based on the premise that the primary responsibility for commercialization belongs with the private sector. But success ultimately depends on a team effort."

Picking Up the Pace: The Commercial Challenge to American Innovation, Council on Competitiveness

"[This study] concludes that if the promotional policies under way in a number of foreign countries are not offset, the United States confronts the loss of technological leadership and, indeed, technological autonomy in microelectronics, a development that will have adverse ripple effects throughout our economy and for our national security."

Creating Advantage: Semiconductors and Government Industrial Policy in the 1990s, Semiconductor Industry Association and Dewey Ballantine, 1992

"During the last half century, America defined its priorities in geopolitical terms. Our preeminent goal was to contain the Soviet Union and win the Cold War. We have succeeded beyond our wildest dreams, emerging at the world's only military superpower. But we are no longer the world's only economic superpower. Indeed, in the full flush of geopolitical triumph, we are teetering over the abyss of economic decline.

The signs are everywhere: anemic productivity growth, falling real wages, a woefully inadequate educational system, and declining shares of world markets for many high-technology products. After more than a decade of faltering American economic performance, what was once considered an alarmist view has now become a mainstream opinion: our economic competitiveness-defined as our ability to produce goods and services that meet the test of international markets while our citizens enjoy a standard of living that is both rising and sustainable-is in slow but perceptible decline."

Who's Bashing Whom? Trade Conflict in High-Technology Industries, Laura D'Andrea Tyson, Institute for International Economics, November 1992

Of course, this is cherry-picking, and I could do another column or two of quotes that got everything wrong. I could also do another one with more quotes from people who were right. The point is to demonstrate that there were people back then who got it right and saw what was coming. One of my complaints about the Biden administration's trade people was their argument that previous generations did not understand trade and only they had figured things out correctly. That also is clearly Trump's view-that his predecessors, mostly Biden but also others, failed to understand and address the problems of unfair trade that he is now solving. Of course, it is ironic that while both the Trump and Biden administrations say their predecessors got it wrong, their visions of what is right are quite different.

The point of this column, though, is to show that not everybody back then was wrong. There were plenty of smart people thoughtfully attacking difficult problems and showing considerable prescience in anticipating what was coming. Our mistake was not to listen to them. Instead, we violated the basic rule of holes-when you're in one, stop digging.

William A. Reinsch is senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the Economics Program and Scholl Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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