You can’t print barrels: EIR holds $100 Brent forecast

CALGARY, Alberta (Sept. 15, 2026) - Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report maintaining its $100/bbl Brent forecast for the remainder of 2026 and 2027 despite a significant reduction in expected oil-demand growth.

EIR reduced its 2027 oil-demand growth forecast from 2.5 MMbbl/d to 0.5 MMbbl/d Y/Y, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining constrained through year-end 2027 and Russian refinery capacity remaining impaired. Even with weaker demand expectations, EIR says low crude and product inventories and constrained supply continue to support its Brent price outlook. The report estimates oil-demand contraction of 1.4 MMbbl/d in 2026 as elevated product prices and limited global refining capacity weigh on consumption.

The supply cushion also remains limited. EIR holds Strait of Hormuz flows at 8.0 MMbbl/d through year-end 2026 and just under 10 MMbbl/d across 2027, compared with a 20 MMbbl/d prewar baseline. At the same time, Chinese crude imports rose to 8.45 MMbbl/d in July, up 22% month over month, and EIR expects China to continue narrowing the gap with its 11.5 MMbbl/d prewar import level. Outside China, EIR says oil-market buffers are nearly exhausted and Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are on pace to end by October, increasing the market's exposure to additional outages.

"You can't print barrels. Even with a weak demand outlook, the market is still dealing with constrained crude supply, low inventories and limited refining capacity. That's why we continue to see Brent at $100 per barrel through the remainder of 2026 and 2027," said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.

Key takeaways:

• EIR maintains its $100/bbl Brent forecast for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, with crude and product inventories remaining low and major supply constraints lacking a clear near-term resolution.
• EIR lowered its 2027 oil-demand growth forecast from 2.5 MMbbl/d to 0.5 MMbbl/d Y/Y and estimates demand will contract by 1.4 MMbbl/d in 2026, assuming extended disruptions.
• EIR holds Strait of Hormuz flows at 8.0 MMbbl/d through year-end 2026, rising to just under 10 MMbbl/d across 2027 versus a 20 MMbbl/d prewar baseline. Rerouting capacity is expected to rise from 4.0 MMbbl/d today to 6.4 MMbbl/d next year.
• Chinese crude imports reached 8.45 MMbbl/d in July, up 22% M/M but still 24% below year-ago levels; EIR expects the shortfall versus the 11.5 MMbbl/d prewar level to narrow to 0.5 MMbbl/d in 4Q26.
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are on pace to end by October, and EIR says additional outages in 2027 could leave demand destruction as the primary mechanism for balancing near-term markets.

EIR's analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.

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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.