Indigenous observations make Arctic Ocean models more accurate

Indigenous observations make Arctic Ocean models more accurate

Working with Indigenous observers on Alaska's northern coast, a research team has developed a way to improve the modeling of oceanic changes.

This work was led by the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and the findings were published in the journal Nature Communications Earth and Environment.

Claudine Hauri, a research faculty member at IARC, is leading a collaborative team to develop a regional ocean-ice model that simulates ocean currents, chemistry and organisms such as zooplankton. The effort is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Changing Ecosystem and Fisheries Initiative.

Hauri said discrepancies emerged when comparing the model's predictions with Indigenous observers' reports on weather, sea ice conditions and unusual events.

For example, in Utqiaġvik in 2019, the model predicted that sea ice would freeze up earlier than it actually did. A marine heat wave brought more severe storms, warmer conditions and a later freeze-up than predicted, according to observers.

"It has rained so much that the roads are falling apart and we may have broken a temperature record," reported observer Billy Adams on Oct. 1, 2019. "Everyone is waiting for snow. The bowhead whales are not close to Barrow yet either. Feels like many natural cycles the animals go through normally are being changed and the minds are being tested."

Such a snapshot captured the moment, the conditions and the community's experience and expectations

"These aren't just data points," Hauri said. "When an Iñupiat observer notices something about the sea ice, they're drawing on generations of knowledge about how that ice behaves, what it means for travel and hunting, and how it connects to wind, currents and animals. That's a different kind of knowing than a single measurement, and it's exactly what makes these observations so valuable."

Using models to predict how climate change will affect an area is important for planning and navigating increasingly complex issues in Alaska communities, Hauri said. Evaluating models with Indigenous observations of seasonal to long-term oceanic changes will improve them and make them more relevant to people living in the Arctic, including those setting policy, she noted.

Reliable prediction is not just an Arctic issue. Around the world, ocean climate models inform policy decisions that directly impact everything from resource management to infrastructure development. Without community input, food security, cultural activities and self-determination can be harmed, she said.

The research team set out to determine how scientists and observers can work together to develop a more comprehensive model framework that ensures that input.

Researchers partnered with the Alaska Arctic Observatory and Knowledge Hub to engage with Indigenous observers. The observers would gather information about, for example, what harvesting activities take place under specific environmental conditions during the year in Utqiaġvik.

They then layered the model data for the same period onto a seasonal calendar to create a shared understanding between the research team and the observers. The calendar brings together Indigenous observations, model output and harvesting activities. This approach served as a starting point for discussions with observers and informs how the model lines up with their experiences and where it falls short.

The interwoven seasonal calendar framework offers a template that can be implemented across locations and data, and it goes beyond collecting data and verifying results, Hauri said.

"This partnership fundamentally changed the way we conduct research. Instead of simply applying scientific questions to data, we co-developed the model framework with Indigenous observers, centering the research around community needs and priorities," said Hauri. "We are now using the comparison between observations and model data to improve and apply the model."

The team hopes this framework will be used by other researchers to improve the relevance and accuracy across rural Alaska communities and beyond.

"I think it's going to be a big thing very soon to have Indigenous input in ice [and ocean] modeling, and with all fairness to the animals that we depend on, is looking for the truth of how our populations are doing in the marine environment," Adams said.

ADDITIONAL CONTACT: Claudine Hauri, [email protected]

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