What Did Snowflake Stock Investors Miss Before The Run

Snowflake (SNOW) stock returned 115% in the six months to September 28, 2026. A $10,000 holding at the start of that window was worth about $21,470 at the end. The run was about revenue growth that sped up for three straight quarters, with help from Snowflake's AI products. Part of that faster revenue growth was on the record before the shares moved, so what did investors miss?

Snowflake's Contracts Sped Up First, Then Its Revenue

The first signs were an early rise in signed business and then in revenue. Snowflake gave the earliest clue on its November 20, 2024, earnings call for fiscal Q3 2025. Management said its remaining performance obligations, the value of signed contracts not yet booked as revenue, totaled $5.7 billion. Management said growth in that figure was "accelerating to 55%" from a year earlier.

Signed contracts become revenue over time. You could read contracts growing that fast as a reason to expect revenue growth to pick up later. In fiscal Q4 2025, revenue itself grew a slower 27% from a year earlier.

Revenue growth did not pick up at once. It slipped to 26% in fiscal Q1 2026, filed on May 30, 2025. It rose to 32% in fiscal Q2 2026, then dipped to 29% in fiscal Q3 2026 before rising again. Growth reached 30% in fiscal Q4 2026, which Snowflake filed on March 20, 2026.

The operating loss narrowed over the same year. It equaled 43% of revenue in fiscal Q1 2026 and 25% in fiscal Q4 2026.

The AI side was much harder to see in advance. Snowflake called itself the AI Data Cloud company in a September 29, 2025, announcement. None of those filed results include a separate AI figure. Before the run began on March 27, 2026, Snowflake's filed results already showed revenue growing faster than a year earlier.

Snowflake Stock Outran The Market As Revenue Growth Rose

Snowflake stock gained more than five times as much as the market. The S&P 500 returned 21% over the same six months. Microsoft, the best performer among three large peers, returned 43%, so the run was more than a sector-wide move.

The shares jumped more than 20% on September 3, 2026, after Snowflake's second-quarter report for fiscal 2027. Snowflake reported a third straight quarter of faster product revenue growth and raised its full-year outlook. Chief executive Sridhar Ramaswamy said AI accounted for about half of the company's outperformance.

Total revenue grew 35% from a year earlier in that quarter. That compares with 30% in fiscal Q4 2026, the newest quarter filed before the run. Product revenue makes up most of Snowflake's total, so its faster growth lifts the whole company.

The S&P 500 trades at 3.1 times its annual sales. Investors now pay 21.1 times Snowflake's annual sales, a price set after revenue growth kept speeding up.

Is Snowflake's Revenue Growth Still Speeding Up?

Yes, so far. Revenue growth has risen in each of the three quarters since fiscal Q3 2026, when it was 29%.

The operating loss is still shrinking too. Over the last twelve months it equaled 23% of revenue, against 37% a year earlier.

You will see the next revenue growth figure in Snowflake's third-quarter report for fiscal 2027. Revenue growth above 35% in that report would mean Snowflake's speed-up is still building. Growth below 35% would mean it has stopped. A fallback near 30% would mean it has run its course, leaving less support for a price of 21.1 times sales.

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