India: Coffee Annual

FAS Mumbai forecasts India's MY 2026/27 coffee production (Oct/Sep) at 6.14 million 60-kilgoram (kg) bags. Yields, particularly for Arabica, are expected to come under pressure due to excessive rainfall in January and February followed by an extended dry spell during the critical flowering and fruiting stage. Farmgate prices for Arabica and Robusta have declined by 16 percent and 11 percent respectively since October. Despite this change, prices remain at a premium to other origins, though further moderation is expected. The decline in prices is being driven by expectations of higher output in key producing countries and elevated domestic stock levels. Domestic consumption is projected to rise to 1.58 million 60-kg bags, supported by strong demand for soluble coffee. Exports are forecast to increase to 6.2 million 60-kg bags, supported by a higher exportable surplus and the recent implementation of free trade agreements, which are expected to enhance value-added coffee exports.