Soymeal Steals Spotlight in March 2026 WASDE

Despite a quiet March report for whole beans, soy product balance sheet changes drive pricing

By: Jacquie Holland, ASA Economist

The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is typically a non-event for commodity prices. While this month's USDA update to the soybean balance sheet seemed monotonous at first glance, revisions to the soy products' balance sheet suggested underlying price stability in the soybean complex.

Any post-WASDE price movement was likely muted by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran. Brent crude oil and WTI oil futures tumbled as much as 15% after U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright walked back a social media post proclaiming the U.S. military had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

Minor whole soybean revisions

South American supplies were a top item to watch in Tuesday's WASDE. USDA left the behemoth 2025/26 Brazilian crop unchanged at 180 MMT in the March 2026 WASDE. Brazil's harvest was 51% complete as of last Thursday, down from 61% at the same reporting period a year prior due to rain delays.

Argentina's 2025/26 harvest was reduced 0.5 MMT to 48 MMT by USDA after an acreage increase was not enough to completely offset yield concerns. While rainfall has been plentiful in other areas of the Pampas throughout the growing season, yield estimates were trimmed to accommodate scarce rainfall in the southeastern Pampas region.

Smaller Argentine and Ukrainian soybean crops clipped global ending soybean stocks by 0.2 MMT, dropping the 2025/26 balance to 125.31 MMT. The estimate was on the higher end of pre-report analyst estimates, suggesting global supplies remain plentiful despite a couple yield shortfalls.

Crush uptick favors meal over oil

Closer to home, USDA raised 2025/26 soybean imports by 5 million bushels and added the same volume to crush estimates, bringing the current marketing year crush total to 2.575 billion bushels. USDA left the season average farm price for soybeans unchanged at $10.20/bu.

While the uptick in soy crush appeared minor, the ripple effects are significant. Soymeal supplies increased by 400,000 short tons to 62.3 million short tons on the higher crush volumes. January 2026 soymeal yields hit 47.57 pounds per bushel, up slightly from December 2025 and setting a new high for January soymeal yields.

USDA expects the additional volume to be consumed entirely by domestic livestock units. The demand prospects led USDA to increase season average prices for soymeal by $5/ton to $300/ton for the 2025/26 marketing year.

The surge in domestic soymeal usage added strength to futures prices as well. The nearby May 2026 soymeal futures contract closed Tuesday's trading session $1/ton higher to $315.1/ton.

Strong processing margins in the Eastern Corn Belt have largely driven the uptick in value of soymeal in the past four months. The recent Iranian conflict and optimism for domestic biofuels policy have pushed an increasing amount of soymeal's market share over towards the soybean oil side of the soy crush margins in recent weeks, particularly in the Western Corn Belt and Upper Midwest.

Crude oil lifts soybean oil prospects

Even with a larger crush volume forecasted by USDA, soybean oil supplies were cut in the March 2026 WASDE to account for larger soymeal yields and reduced soybean oil extraction rates. USDA reduced 2025/26 soybean oil production by 20 million pounds to 29.9 billion pounds due to lower oil extraction rates at crush facilities.

USDA netted a 50-million-pound decrease in 2025/26 usage after cutting 800 million pounds of soybean oil used for biofuel production while adding 750 million pounds of food, feed and other usage to the soybean oil balance sheet. Policy uncertainty remains a key factor in the lower soybean oil usage for biodiesel, which dropped to a nine-month low of 859 million pounds in December 2025.

Even with a reduction in production, soybean oil stocks continue to grow. January 2026 stock readings approached a three-year high at 2.43 billion pounds on reduced biodiesel consumption. This dynamic led USDA to increase 2025/26 ending stocks for soybean oil to 1.782 billion pounds.

Even with the increase in ending stocks and ongoing policy uncertainty facing soybean feedstocks destined for biofuel consumption, USDA increased its season-average price for soybean oil by $0.02/lb., raising it to $0.55/lb. On Tuesday, April 2026 light crude (WTI) futures soared to peaks not seen since the 2022 Ukrainian-Russian war. Spillover strength from the energy complex due largely to geopolitical escalations in the Middle East and shipping closures on the Strait of Hormuz have fueled gains in the global edible oils complex since late February.

The trickle-down effect from the energy rally has been supportive of rising crush margins at crush plants across the Heartland. Through the week ending March 6, oil share at Illinois crush facilities currently accounts for 51.9% of the crush margin, according to USDA-AMS data. It marks the highest share for oil in the crush margin since early August 2025. The oil share of the crush margin has been trending higher since the middle of last November.

Soymeal was the star of the show in a relatively quiet March 2026 WASDE report. Following a dismal export season, soymeal and soybean oil prospects will be the soy complex's best hope for narrowing production losses as farmers seek to lock in final 2026 acreage decisions ahead of USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report.