Economic and Market Report: Global and EU auto industry – Full year 2025

ACEA's Economic and Market Report provides data on vehicle sales, production, and trade in Europe and globally.

The EU's economic outlook is better than previously expected, as growth exceeded earlier projections in the first nine months of the year, with GDP rising by 1.5% in 2025 and expected to maintain a similar pace in 2026 and 2027. Headline inflation in the EU is also set to hover around the European Central Bank (ECB)'s 2% target in 2026. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East pose a clear downside risk to these macroeconomic projections.

Global car markets showed positive trends in 2025, though growth varied across regions. Worldwide registrations rose 3.5% to 77.6 million units, driven by a 5.5% increase in China, supported by scrappage incentives and new energy vehicle policies. North America recorded modest growth of 1%, reflecting an uncertain and volatile economic environment. After a subdued start to the year, Europe recorded an increase in its overall registrations of 1.4%.

The EU's car production landscape remained highly concentrated, with Germany producing 21% of cars sold in the EU, followed by Spain, Czechia, France, and Slovakia. Together, EU-based manufacturers supplied 73% of the market. Meanwhile, cars made in China now account for 7% of EU sales, underscoring the increasing competitiveness of Chinese brands and the expanding role of imports in the region.

Global car production grew by 4.2% to 78.7 million. Asia continued to dominate, accounting for 62.1% of total output, while the EU contributed 14.6%.European production remained relatively stable, hindered by persistently high energy costs and the impact of tariffs. In contrast, China's output soared by 10.4% on the back of strong policy support and expanding export volumes. Despite the challenges, EU-made cars continue to retain strong international demand, with over one-third sold outside the bloc. The United Kingdom, United States, and Türkiye remained leading destinations, while sales of EU-made cars in China continued to decline amid intensifying local competition.

Trade performance in the EU car sector faced significant headwinds. Imports fell by 3.2% and exports by 6.2%, adding further pressure to the trade surplus, which now stands at €76 billion. The imbalance with China was particularly stark: EU exports plunged by 43% whilst Chinese imports continued to rise - surpassing 1 million units for the first time. Amid these challenges, Türkiye stood out with export values rising by 27.9%, whereas exports to the United States declined by 21.4% as a direct effect of tariffs put in place last year.

Europe's commercial vehicle market faced a tough year in 2025, with registrations falling across several major markets, a clear sign of the complex industrial landscape. Except for buses (+7.5%), van and truck registrations declined by 8.8% and 6.2%, respectively. The downturn reflects both a normalisation toward long-term trends and ongoing challenges in fleet renewal and the transition to zero-emission powertrains.

Commercial vehicle production showed clear regional differences in 2025. Global van production grew by 2%, while Europe recorded a 3.6% decline, driven mainly by a 6.5% drop in the EU and a staggering 70.2% contraction in the UK. Conversely, truck production in the EU declined slightly by 0.8%, while bus production recorded a solid rebound of 8.9%.

Segment trade balances diverged notably. The van sector's trade surplus halved, the truck trade surplus narrowed by 9.5%, and the bus segment's trade deficit reached €2.9 billion.

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This information was presumed to be correct at the time of publication. However, ACEA is not responsible for any inconsistencies or errors in the data.