Cleveland Fed survey: CEO inflation expectations decreased in 2025:Q4

Inflation expectations among U.S. business leaders decreased in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), which is published by the Cleveland Fed's Center for Inflation Research.

CEOs and other top executives reported in October (2025:Q4) that they expect inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index to be 3.3 percent over the next 12 months, down from 3.5 percent in July (2025:Q3). The quarterly survey gathers responses from a large representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors. The Cleveland Fed reports these survey data because business leaders' inflation expectations can influence the prices their firms charge customers, and these prices can, in turn, influence the path of inflation.

Each quarter SoFIE captures respondents' beliefs for expected CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Once per year it asks about beliefs for average CPI inflation over the next 5 years, CPI inflation over the last 12 months, perceptions of the Federal Reserve's inflation target, and the probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%.

More about SoFIE: Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations

More on inflation: The Center for Inflation Research