Un Announces Overshooting 1.5°C Is Inevitable. What Comes Next

A decade ago, global powers came together to create a shared climate goal: the Paris Agreement. Through this process, countries agreed to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures to avoid the worst risks and potential impacts of climate change.

But earlier this month, the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) announced sobering news : Crossing the 1.5°C threshold, and exceeding it, is imminent - and it's likely to occur within the next few years.

Climate scientists have long been sounding alarms about this inevitability, and the UNEP has officially confirmed that it is unavoidable. We are now faced with the question: What comes next?

We have no choice but to meet this moment, and we're choosing to meet it with action . Entering a post-1.5°C world may be inevitable, but how high temperatures peak, how quickly they decline, and how well we prepare communities most at risk depends on our choices today.

Overshoot, Peak, and Decline

1.5°C (or 2.7°F) above pre-industrial temperatures may seem like a small amount of warming But if a human experienced the same, we'd call it a fever, and our planet's fever is rising.

The symptoms are obvious: We're currently experiencing the worst wildfire season to ever strike Oregon; catastrophic flash floods hit Nepal in August, triggered by the collapse of a melting glacier; and July was the hottest month ever recorded in US history. Extreme climate events are only expected to increase in frequency and intensity as temperatures rise. Every fraction of temperature increase will result in more severe risks and impacts, with some scientists predicting warming may climb up to 2.5°C or higher above pre-industrial levels (that big of a fever-spike in humans might warrant a trip to the ER).

This is known as the overshoot. In this context, overshoot describes the scenario where temps rise beyond 1.5°C, peak, and then come back down. The scale of climate damage our communities experience is directly linked to just how far we overshoot.

The news is undeniably bleak, but overshooting 1.5°C must be viewed as racing past a glaring warning sign, not passing the point of no return. Reaching (and limiting) a peak of warming is now critical - there is a significant difference between a world where temps reach at 1.8°C and one that reaches 2.5°C. The lower our peak temperature is, the more possible a decline back to 1.5°C or lower becomes.

Currently, we aren't doing enough to limit the potential scope of a peak: Policies to cut climate pollution must accelerate to keep maximum warming as low as possible, while work to make our communities resilient to the climate impacts we can no longer avoid is prioritized.

A Call to Climate Action

Crossing 1.5°C is a call to climate action. Both here in Oregon and globally, that means continuing to transition away from fossil fuels, accelerating renewable energy, building a more resilient electric grid, making our homes more efficient, expanding clean transportation and holding major polluters accountable for their role in climate change. We still have power over just how hot our future becomes.

Join OEC in pushing for the solutions Oregon needs. Sign up for OEC's Grassroots Action mailing list for opportunities to take action and protect Oregon's communities from climate extremes.