A Humbling July for Hedge Funds

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Good Morning,

Stock bears suddenly got obliterated, Wall Street bankers are betting on huge bonuses this year, US has refunded $100B in 'Liberation Day' tariffs, Anthropic will build an in-house chip design team, and most hedge funds took a big hit in July on falling AI trades.

One major hedge fund delivered double-digit gains. Unless you're living under a rock, you probably guessed which one right.

Polymarket's Polygraph newsletter is bringing global headlines with skin in the game. Subscribe for free to see what's happening in world events, with information always priced in.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks closed mixed yesterday as investors digest strong earnings while the chip re-bound cooled

  • S&P and Nasdaq broke four-day win streaks

  • Dow hit a fresh ATH

• Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a new ATH

• UK's FTSE 250 hit a new ATH

• China sold 15Y and 30Y yuan bonds in Hong Kong at record low 1.99% and 2.24% yields respectively

Earnings

• Carlyle topped Q2 earnings estimates on higher fee-related earnings and proceeds from ‌deals in Japan and US (RT)

• Sandisk beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on soaring AI memory demand but forecast lower-than-expected Q1 revenue causing shares to fall 10% (WSJ)

• Shopify smashed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on rising ecommerce market share and volume and productive AI adoption in its operations and platform (WSJ)

• Uber met Q2 earnings estimates but gave weak Q3 guidance despite revenue growth as it seeks to solidify its deliveries and robotaxis strategy amid an evolving landscape (CNBC)

• Eli Lilly issued a Q2 beat-and-raise as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro surged again (CNBC)

• Circle Beat Q2 earnings estimates but missed on revenue on slowing crypto trading activity, legislative uncertainty, and rising competition (BBG)

• Walt Disney missed Q3 revenue estimates but beat on earnings on the back of growth in streaming subscribers, price hikes, and healthy parks and cruises results (CNBC)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: DraftKings, Airbnb

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• The fact that Anthropic has been leading all year…

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• Wall Street bankers bet on huge bonuses as profits surge (WSJ)

• Iran reached an agreement with Oman on Hormuz shipping route (FT)

• US has refunded $100B in 'Liberation Day' tariffs (FT)

• US upstream O&G Q2 dealmaking dived on volatility (RT)

• Bears obliterated as Nasdaq-100 logs top 10 bullish stat of past decade (CNBC)

• Even big profits aren't enough to keep chip investors happy (WSJ)

• LevFin investors are increasingly losing everything in bankruptcies (BBG)

• European green bond sales is set to rebound to record levels (FT)

• Hedge funds take big hit in July after AI selloff (BBG)

• Asia multi-strategy hedge funds see big monthly drawdowns (RT)

• Major hedge funds were targeted by wave of cyber attacks (BBG)

• Citadel's flagship fund gained 5.9% in July after bailing out Situational (FT)

• SpaceX's $100B unlock adds pressure to falling shares (BBG)

• Anthropic will build an in-house chip design team for Claude (TC)

• OpenAI, Anthropic AI agents implicated in new security breaches (RT)

• Demis Hassabis will step down as CEO of Google Deepmind (FT)

• US banned exports of certain critical minerals (FT)

• Mamdani shuns NYC business leaders who are used to calling the shots (WSJ)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Pharma giants AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb are not in talks for a $400B merger

• $30B-listed Italian lender Banco BPM may consider a merger with the Italian unit of French lender Credit Agricole after failing to strike a deal with peer BMPS

• Brazilian steelmaker CSN is seeking $2.9B for its ‌cement unit

• $2.8B-listed French retailers operations automation firm Vusion is exploring a sale

• Swiss PE firm Partners Group is nearing a deal to acquire French beauty group Aroma-Zone from Eurazeo for $2.3B

• UK industrial heat treatment specialist Bodycote Plc received takeover bids worth $2.2B from CVC and Veritas Capital

• French oil firm Maurel & Prom agreed to acquire the Colombian and Ecuadorean oil operations from Canada's Gran Tierra Energy for $1.33B, including ​debt.

• Media conglomerate Hearst struck a deal to acquire Disney's 50% stake ​in TV and content business A+E Global Media for $1.2B‌ cash to take full ownership

• Bain Capital will acquire global boba tea chain Gong cha from TA Associates for $635M

• Allianz Global Investors agreed to buy the asset management unit of Singapore's United Overseas Bank for $433M

• Lifestyle retail company Spencer Spirit Holdings is in advanced talks to acquire teen retailer Hot Topic from Sycamore Partners for $350M

• Beedie Capital, the investment firm of Canadian real estate billionaire Ryan Beedie, acquired half of tech investment firm Vistara Growth and committed $125M to a new

• Shareholder

• SJ Holdings launched a take-private offer for Korean golf tech firm Golfzon at a ~$210M valuation but is facing pushback from minority shareholder Terton Capital

• Appleby, the offshore law firm at the center of the 'Paradise Papers' leak, is exploring selling a stake to PE

VC

• Google DeepMind chief scientist Jeff Dean and another AI exec are leaving to start their own company, with backing from Google

• UK fintech Revolut CEO Nik Storonsky is in talks for a new pay deal that would boost his ownership if it hits a $500B valuation

• Chinese optical connectivity firm Adtek Technology is close to raising $300M in a pre-IPO round from Singapore SWF Temasek, Morgan Stanley's PE arm, and Asian investment firm CPE

• HappyRobot, an enterprise AI platform, raised a $150M Series C at a $1.2B valuation led by Prysm Capital and Eurazeo

• Decade, an AI-driven personal wealth management startup, raised an $85M seed round from Benchmark, Diffusion, Greenoaks, Atlantico, and Norte Ventures

• Enigma, a robotics control software startup, raised $71M in a seed round led by Index Ventures and Ribbit Capital

• Convex, a backend platform for reliability at scale, raised $57M Series B led by Insight Partners with participation from Etna Labs, a16z, and Spark Capital

• Yellow Card, a global stablecoin infrastructure provider, raised a $40M strategic funding round from SC Ventures, Sony Ventures, Polychain Capital, Blockchain Capital, and others

• Maximum, an AI-native operating system for banks, raised a $30M seed round led by CRV

• Endeavor Optical Networks, an orbital optical networking startup, raised a $10.75M seed round co-led by General Catalyst and a16z

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Evoken, the Chinese startup behind AI design agent Lovart, is considering a Hong Kong IPO amid funding talks for a $3B valuation

• Canadian data center supplier Celestica is looking to raise $3B in a share sale at a 15% discount

• TPG and Temasek-backed Indian hospital operator Manipal Health jumped 10% in its trading debut after raising $960M in India's second-largest IPO this year

• Goldman Sachs-backed immunology-focused biotech Attovia Therapeutics jumped 25% in its trading debut after raising $290M for a $905M market cap in an upsized IPO

• Activist DGB Investments built a stake in $620M-listed furniture firm Ethan Allen Interiors and is pushing to replace the entire board

• SoftBank-backed technology supply chain and financing platform OfBusiness, is considering reviving plans for an $800M India IPO

• Mitsubishi UBE Cement, a unit of Mitsubishi Materials and chemicals firm UBE, is planning a Japan IPO this year

Debt

• Banks led by Morgan Stanley plan to offload $15B of debt tied to a Google-backed Texas data center leased to Anthropic

• Ares is leading a $2.2B private credit loan to help finance pharmacy benefits manager MedImpact's planned purchase of Puerto Rico-based healthcare services company Medical Card System

• Vietnam's Techcombank is seeking a $1B loan

• Kazakhstan is seeking to raise $500M in a panda bond sale

• A group led by BC Partners' credit arm is looking to back Saudi's LIV Golf after PIF pulled funding

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Dutch bikemaker Accell filed for insolvency four years after KKR's $2B LBO

• Bondholder including Arini Capital and Silver Point are set to take over Strategic Value Partners-backed struggling wood-paneling company backed Pfleiderer despite raising fresh debt just eight months ago

Funds / Secondaries

• Apollo raised over $12B for its eleventh flagship PE fund

• Singapore SWF GIC is looking to offload $1B worth of PE LP stakes in EQT, TPG Asia, and KKR

• Chinese VC Monolith Management is seeking to raise $500M for a new fund focused on Chinese AI

• Asset manager Janus Henderson and affiliates Victory Park Capital and Privacore Capital raised $1350M for its latest private ABF fund

• VC secondaries firm Revenant Ventures raised $78.5M for its debut fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Binance says RedotPay diverted users in $470M lawsuit

• Putin signed a law officially regulating crypto in Russia

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• WSJ published a profile on the major investors who backed Situational Awareness before it blew up.

• Ted Seides published a concise but insightful piece on the anatomy of a blow-up. In other words, what every hedge fund blow up has in common.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.