IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026: “New World Disorder” Driving Unprecedented Humanitarian Crises as Global Support Collapses

December 16, 2025 - The International Rescue Committee (IRC) today released its annual Emergency Watchlist, identifying the 20 countries most at risk of worsening humanitarian crises in 2026. The top countries on this year's list-Sudan, the occupied Palestinian territory, and South Sudan-offer stark examples of the devastating impact of what the IRC calls a "New World Disorder."

This year's Watchlist identifies a dangerous divergence: surging crises and shrinking support. Home to just 12% of the global population, Watchlist countries account for 89% of those in humanitarian need and are projected to host more than half of the world's extreme poor by 2029. 117 million people are forcibly displaced; nearly 40 million people are facing such severe hunger that urgent action is required to save lives. While crises grow, global humanitarian funding has shrunk by 50%. What remains is a humanitarian system underfunded, undercut and unprepared to meet unprecedented humanitarian crises in 2026.

This "New World Disorder" is replacing the post-WWII international system once grounded in rules and rights. Defined by intensifying geopolitical rivalries, shifting alliances, and transactional deal-making, this disorder is driving a cascade of crises and eroding global support for the world's most vulnerable. Global cooperation is unraveling;together with major aid cuts, the UN Security Council has seen a surge in vetoes, stalling responses to atrocities in Sudan, Syria, and the occupied Palestinian territory. Conflict is increasingly used as a tool for power and profit. In Sudan, warring parties and their backers are profiting from the gold trade, deepening violence and devastating civilians. Meanwhile, impunity is enabled on a dangerous scale.2025 is on track to be the deadliest year for humanitarians. Attacks on schools have risen nearly 50%, and in Gaza, hospitals, shelters, and essential infrastructure have been bombed or cut off from aid.

This emerging disorder is not just destabilizing-it is incentivizing and thereby reinforcing the trends devastating Watchlist countries. But this year's IRC Watchlist makes clear: what begins in crisis-affected states will not stay there.

David Miliband, President and CEO of the IRC, said: "What the IRC is seeing on the ground is not a tragic accident. The world is not simply failing to respond to crisis; actions and words are producing, prolonging, and rewarding it. The scale of the crisis in Sudan, ranking first on this year's Watchlist for the third year in a row and now the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded, is a signature of this disorder.

"This year's Watchlist is a testament to misery but also a warning: without urgent action from those with power to make a difference, 2026 risks becoming the most dangerous year yet. Civilians in Watchlist countries are paying the price today. The IRC stands with them to deliver practical solutions that save lives and restore hope. But the New World Disorder is here, and winds are picking up everywhere. Disorder begets disorder. The question is whether to respond with vision, an opportunity for reinvention or with further retreat."

Despite these devastating trends, the IRC insists that solutions exist and are already proving effective. In Sudan, Ethiopia and South Sudan, the IRC is delivering life-saving immunization services in areas otherwise inaccessible due to conflict. In Somaliaand Nigeria, the IRC and its partners are anticipating needs to predictable and growing climate threats.

The IRC Watchlist outlines a clear agenda for responding to today's crises and shaping a more just global system. Its recommendations include:

• Reinvigorate diplomacy. To resolve conflicts powered by war economies, all diplomatic initiatives need to include an analysis of who is profiting from violence and disrupt these illicit networks with targeted sanctions, anti-money laundering and other channels. UN member states must empower the UN to collectively address global challenges - as a first step by supporting the suspension of Security Council veto power in cases of mass atrocity.
• Protect civilians and fight impunity. States must take practical steps, individually and collectively, to promote international law, including by withholding arms sales when violations occur or are at risk of occurring. All states should support UN accountability mechanisms, like Commissions of Inquiry, gathering evidence to be shared in fora like the UN Security Council. Humanitarian access should be treated as a non-negotiable priority in conflict negotiations, preventing it from being used as a bargaining chip. And governments must renew their commitment to the 1951 Refugee Convention, defending the right to asylum and expanding safe and legal pathways-especially given that 70% of those displaced by crises are already hosted by low- and middle-income countries.
• Target the most in need, and do it better. As shrinking support dismantles cooperation on shared goals, the aid system must adapt. This means shifting from a model of limited resources spread thin to a more sustainable approach built on a broader donor base and a targeted focus on the most impactful interventions and greatest needs. At least 60% of Official Development Assistance (ODA) should go to fragile and conflict-affected states, with 30% dedicated specifically to Watchlist countries. Cash assistance, simplified malnutrition treatment, immunization and anticipatory action on climate are proven, cost-effective, transformative tools. Climate adaptation finance should follow need, increasingly concentrated in fragile and conflict-affected states. The donor base for global aid must expand: BRICS and Gulf nations should expand their increasingly important role. And institutions like the World Bank must fund local and civil society actors directly, better equipped to deliver services in conflict conditions.

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Notes to editors:

The full IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 report can be accessed here.

This year's top ten Watchlist countries are:

1. Sudan
2. Occupied Palestinian Territory
3. South Sudan
4. Ethiopia
5. Haiti
6. Myanmar
7. DRC
8. Mali
9. Burkina Faso
10. Lebanon

Other Watchlist countries, in alphabetical order:

• Afghanistan
• Cameroon
• Chad
• Colombia
• Niger
• Nigeria
• Somalia
• Syria
• Ukraine
• Yemen