Cruel summer: March heat wave’s reminder to the West

A record-breaking heat wave scorched the West in March, and the potent mix of climate change plus a potential El Niño have set the stage for another scorching summer. This Earth Month, UCLA experts weigh in with their concerns about the summer heat outlook, from the increased risk of longer, more severe heat waves to the possibility of needing climate interventions like injecting sulfur into the atmosphere.

El Niño or not, the warmer climate already spikes the heat

Alex Hall

Hall is a climate scientist, professor and director of both the Sustainable LA Grand Challenge and Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. Hall notes that El Niño conditions exacerbate heat, but emphasizes that the ongoing climate crisis brings more than enough trouble on its own.

Email: [email protected]

"What we're seeing reflects a warmer baseline climate. Even without a strong El Niño in place, temperatures are higher than they would have been a few decades ago, and that increases the likelihood of unusually warm events. As we move toward summer, natural variability will continue to play a role, but it will be acting on top of a warmer climate. That means higher odds of persistent and widespread heat."

"If an El Niño does develop later this year, it could further increase the chances of heat extremes, but the underlying warming trend is already doing a lot of the work. The climate system has warmed enough that some heat events that would have been very unlikely in the past are now much more plausible. That shift in the baseline is the key story."