Market Briefs | October 29, 2025

Rice
Rice futures are finally showing technical signs that a potential bottom has been found. After falling to a new 6-year low of $9.89 for November and $10.25 for January on Monday, the market charted a bullish key reversal, signaling that the bottom of the market has finally been found. Rice is benefiting from carryover strength from corn and soybeans and optimism about a potential trade agreement with the U.K. that would boost the market for U.S. rice. However, the upside likely remains limited with burdensome world and U.S. stocks weighing down the market. November futures have downtrending resistance currently near $10.30.

Corn
December corn futures continue to trend higher, trading above all key moving averages and closing the price gap left after the post-July Fourth selloff. Optimism in the market stems from four recently announced trade agreements and anticipation surrounding the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China's President Xi. Although China remains unlikely to purchase U.S. corn directly, the new trade deals with Southeast Asian countries are expected to bolster corn and ethanol demand. With no new crop progress or export sales data available since late September due to the government shutdown, traders have been relying on private estimates. A recent Reuters poll pegs the U.S. corn harvest at around 72% complete. Technically, December corn is nearing overbought territory, but a sustained move and close above the mid-September double top near $4.31 could trigger additional buying momentum.

Soybeans
November soybean futures have extended their rally following encouraging developments from recent U.S.-China trade discussions. The November contract traded within three cents of the 2025 calendar year high, while January futures set a new high on Monday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported that a framework agreement was reached over the weekend, with Presidents Trump and Xi expected to finalize details in their upcoming meeting. The proposed deal is said to include a pause on export controls for rare-earth minerals and an increase in China's purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The latter has been a key driver behind the soybean market's sharp gap higher to start the week.

Wheat
Wheat futures extended gains early in the week, with the December Kansas City contract reaching a two-month high before meeting resistance near $5.20. That level prompted some profit-taking among speculative longs. A potential near-term correction could test support around the 50-day moving average near $5.05. While fundamental news remains limited, sentiment has improved following several trade announcements. The newly reached trade deal with Japan, one of the top five buyers of U.S. wheat, adds to recent agreements with Thailand and Vietnam, providing fresh demand optimism for the export market. Despite the recent pullback, wheat continues to show signs of a short-term recovery supported by improving technical structure and stronger export prospects.

Cotton
Cotton futures opened the week on a positive note, with December gapping higher on Monday. The market is building support on the recent low of 62.71 cents and this week's action suggests that will be the bottom of the market. Optimism about a potential trade agreement with China is underpinning the market. China has moved to purchasing their cotton from Brazil in recent years, with Vietnam and other South Asian countries becoming important buyers for the U.S. in China's absence. However, any demand from China is seen as a positive in the cotton market. December futures need to close above resistance at 65 cents to suggest another leg up, but harvest pressure could limit the upside in the near-term.

Cattle
The cattle charts have taken on a bearish appearance, although prices are still at historically high levels. The President's announcement that he plans to import beef from Argentina to bring U.S. prices down sparked a selloff last week that has accelerated in recent days. Then on Friday, it was announced that USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will meet with Mexico's agriculture minister to discuss opening the southern border to cattle from Mexico. With New World Screwworm concerns, even the discussion of reopening the border was enough to send the market lower. December live cattle have now violated uptrending support and are now in position to test support near $222. November feeders have also gapped lower several days in a row, also violating uptrending support and testing support near $325.

Hogs
Hog futures continue to trend lower after setting new highs in September. The December contract is now testing resistance near $80.25. Pressure from cash fundamentals is a factor, as cash hog and wholesale pork prices continue to decline seasonally. More deferred contracts are finding support from expectations for tighter supplies in 2026. As holiday buying begins, high beef prices could be supportive for pork prices.