KOF Tourism Forecast: winter tourism remains stable despite geopolitical risks

• KOF Tourism Forecast
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The summer of 2026 is likely to go down statistically as the second-best summer season after the record-breaking summer of 2025. This is remarkable, as long-haul markets have slumped significantly owing to the war in the Middle East. Visitors from Switzerland and Europe have made up for much of this shortfall. A very strong September was the main driver of this encouraging result.

However, the relevant risks remain high. Above all, it remains to be seen how the war in Iran pans out, as the price of oil, airfares and, consequently, long-haul travel depend on this. Added to this are economic risks in Europe and the US. Snowfall is also a key factor for the winter: it could determine whether this season sets a new record or falls short of last year's figures (see specialist analysis). Given the prevailing circumstances, the outlook for the coming winter and summer 2027 is generally encouraging. This picture is also reflected in the KOF Business Tendency Surveys: forecasts for international visitors remain lower than those for domestic ones but have improved recently. Businesses in the major towns and cities, which rely more heavily on visitors from overseas, are the most cautious.

Macroeconomic outlook

The economy in the eurozone is performing better than expected, and growth forecasts for Germany have been revised sharply upwards. Private consumption in the US has so far proved robust. However, subdued consumer sentiment and persistent inflation suggest that this spending could lose momentum after a protracted period of strength. The economy in China is growing mainly thanks to exports, while households remain cautious.

The war in the Middle East is an additional factor for the tourism sector. It is keeping oil prices high, which in turn makes kerosene - and therefore airfares - expensive, a burden that weighs particularly heavily on long-haul travel. Although the Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the euro in October, it remains weaker than it was in the spring. This provides modest relief for European visitors. The overall outlook is therefore mixed: the climate is fairly favourable for guests from nearby countries, whilst conditions remain challenging for long-haul markets.

Interim review of the 2026 summer season

The summer season runs until the end of October. The months up to August have already been analysed; a preliminary estimate from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) is available for September, while the figures for October are still a forecast. Recording around 25.0 million overnight stays, the summer of 2026 is likely to be only slightly below the record-breaking summer of 2025 (down 0.5 per cent). The period from May to August unfolded roughly as the KOF Institute had anticipated in the spring, i.e. slightly below last year's figures. It was the hottest summer since records began, and Swiss guests in particular took advantage of the 'cool summer' in the mountains. This was followed by an excellent September, which was dry and sunny.

According to the FSO's initial estimates, overnight stays in September were around 5.5 per cent higher than they were in the same month last year. A breakdown by country of origin will not be available until early November. The increase is likely to have been driven primarily by visitors from other European countries, but also by those from Switzerland. Those travelling from nearby countries can react swiftly to good weather. September is thus continuing to gain in importance: since 2019, overnight stays in September have grown much more sharply than those in July and August. The hotter the height of summer becomes, the more attractive the mild late summer is likely to become as a travel season. Thanks mainly to September, the entire summer season has turned out better than the KOF Institute had expected back in the spring.

The picture is mixed when broken down by origin. Domestic guests are expected to underpin the season with an increase of around 0.9 per cent. Guests from other European countries are also likely to grow - mainly thanks to September. In contrast, a sharp downturn is looming in the long-haul markets. Over the season as a whole they are expected to record around 5 per cent fewer overnight stays than they did last year, falling below the 2019 level. Demand from Asia in general and the Gulf states in particular fell up to August, as the war has made flights more expensive and disrupted key hubs. Fewer guests came from China. Although the numbers of American guests remained high, they were no longer growing.

Forecast for the 2026/27 winter season

The KOF Institute expects there to be around 18.7 million overnight stays (down 0.1 per cent) during the 2026/27 winter season. That is around 15,000 fewer than in the record-breaking winter of 2025/26. These numbers therefore remain very high and exceed those of 2024/25. The corresponding forecast has hardly changed since the spring. Modestly rising demand from Europe is largely offsetting the weaker long-haul markets, whilst domestic demand remains stable.

Domestic guests: Swiss guests are by far the most important group in winter. Accounting for around 9.5 million overnight stays, they are expected to maintain last year's record levels. The robust economy in Switzerland is underpinning demand. Furthermore, the weaker Swiss franc makes holidays abroad more expensive, which keeps winter holidays at home attractive.

European visitors: Slightly more visitors are expected from other European countries. The KOF Institute is forecasting around 5.6 million overnight stays (up 0.8 per cent). For many Europeans, Switzerland is a nearby destination that can be reached without the need for an expensive flight. Moreover, the Swiss franc has become slightly more affordable for them. However, subdued consumer sentiment is limiting growth here.

Long-haul travellers: Long-haul markets remain subdued: around 3.6 million overnight stays are expected from here (down 1.7 per cent). Demand from Asia and the Gulf states is likely to remain below pre-war levels owing to high airfares. American visitors are expected to travel more cautiously in view of the gloomy consumer sentiment. Fewer visitors are also expected from other long-haul markets.

Forecast for the 2027 summer season

The KOF Institute expects there to be around 25.1 million overnight stays (up 0.4 per cent) during the summer of 2027. That is around 110,000 more than in 2026. Next summer is therefore forecast to be slightly above this year's level but just below the record-breaking summer of 2025. This increase is likely to be driven primarily by the nascent recovery of long-haul markets from Asia. Uncertainty therefore remains high.

Domestic guests: Accounting for around 11.8 million overnight stays (up 0.1 per cent), domestic demand will remain stable and high. Following the strong summer of 2026, which benefited from a warm September, no significant growth is expected.

European visitors: Given subdued consumer sentiment and the high cost of living in Switzerland, this trend would normally tend to be downward. As a nearby holiday destination, however, Switzerland is holding its own, as many visitors from other European countries make last-minute trips, particularly when the weather is fine. On balance, growth is likely to level off at a slight increase of 0.3 per cent.

Long-haul travellers: Long-haul markets are expected to recover gradually. Demand from China and the rest of Asia is likely to pick up again but will only offset just under half of the shortfall. However, the KOF Institute is anticipating a decline in American visitors. Consumer sentiment in the US is subdued, and consumption could slow. Growth of 1.2 per cent is thus forecast for long-haul markets as a whole. The strength of this recovery will depend primarily on the course of the war in Iran and on airfares.

Special analysis: snow as a risk for the winter

The recent sunny September has demonstrated just how much the weather affects demand. Snow is the key factor in winter. This forecast assumes that the amount of snow in the mountains will be similar to last winter - which was already slightly less than usual. Whether this proves to be the case will only become clear as the season progresses. The KOF Institute has therefore calculated how much the number of overnight stays would differ from its forecast in a poor winter compared with a good one.

In a poor winter there would be less snow than usual in December and as much as last winter in January. In February and March there will be fewer days with sufficient snow - similar to late winter 2022/23. In that case there are likely to be around 120,000 fewer overnight stays than forecast (down 0.6 per cent). Even in this scenario, however, there will be enough snow to ski almost anywhere in the higher-altitude ski resorts in February and March. In a good winter there will be as much snow as usual in January and more in February and March - as in the winter of 2014/15. This is likely to result in around 100,000 additional overnight stays (up 0.5 per cent). This would mean the season would exceed the record-breaking winter of 2025/26.

Swiss guests are the most responsive. They often decide at short notice whether to head for the mountains. They account for around four-fifths of the change. The Swiss franc is the main factor for guests from other European countries. They are less responsive to snow conditions.

Methodology: The KOF Institute counts the days with at least 30 cm of snow at 108 monitoring sites operated by the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) at altitudes of around 1,600 to 3,000 metres above sea level and assigns a score of 1 to 4 for each month. The extent to which overnight stays respond to this has been estimated based on winters since 2010/11; this estimate lies roughly in the middle of the model variants tested. These figures are not a weather forecast and should be interpreted with caution, particularly for February and March. There is almost always sufficient snow at these altitudes, so the effect is less precisely determined.