EIA - Energy Information Administration

10/06/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/06/2026 10:06

EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 6, 2026

EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year

In the 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook, released alongside the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. households that primarily heat with natural gas or propane - about half of households - will spend less on energy expenses this winter than last winter. By contrast, households that primarily use electricity or heating oil for space heating are expected to spend more.

Winter energy expenditures are expected to increase the most for homes that primarily use heating oil, which make up about 3% of U.S. households and are located mostly in the Northeast. EIA forecasts homes using heating oil will pay about 21% more for the fuel than last winter; some of the forecast 30% increase in heating oil prices is offset by milder Northeast weather.

"Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand, while households that rely on heating oil face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.

Other key takeaways from the October STEO are below.

U.S. energy market indicators 2025 2026 2027
Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) $69 $96 $84
Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) $3.10 $3.91 $3.56
U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) 13.7 13.9 14.3
Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) $3.53 $3.48 $3.16
U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) 15 18 19
Shares of U.S. electricity generation
Natural gas 40% 40% 39%
Coal 17% 16% 15%
Nuclear 18% 18% 18%
Conventional hydropower 6% 6% 6%
Wind 11% 11% 12%
Solar 7% 8% 9%
Other energy sources 1% 1% 1%
U.S. GDP (percentage change) 2.1% 2.1% 2.6%
U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) 4.9 4.8 4.8
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report.
  • Winter Fuels Outlook. EIA expects national winter temperatures to be about the same as last winter and the previous 10-winter average. A strong El Niño could lead to different weather outcomes, which would affect household heating demand and expenditures.
  • Global oil market assumptions. EIA expects oil production and exports out of the Middle East to gradually increase with facilitated transits through the Strait of Hormuz and as producers use alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. As those workarounds expand, EIA forecasts crude oil production shut-ins will fall from 4.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 4Q26 to 2.7 million b/d in 1Q27.
  • Global oil prices. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $114 per barrel (b) in September, $23/b higher than in August. EIA forecasts Brent will average $105/b in 4Q26, $14/b higher than in last month's forecast, as Middle East disruptions contribute to falling global inventories and tight diesel markets keep prices high. EIA estimates global inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 3Q26 and expects another 0.7 million b/d decline in 4Q26. As oil flows recover and inventories rebuild, EIA expects Brent to average $84/b in 2027.
  • Petroleum prices. U.S. retail gasoline and diesel prices rose in September, averaging $4.35 per gallon (gal) and $6.29/gal, respectively. EIA expects retail diesel prices to remain above $6/gal in October before gradually declining to an average of about $4.50/gal in 2027.
  • Distillate inventories. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to remain between 20% and 30% below average through the winter.
  • Natural gas. EIA expects natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average. Strong production growth and relatively high inventories are expected to limit price increases even as liquefied natural gas exports rise. EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.16 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2027, down 9% from 2026.
  • Wholesale electricity prices and demand. EIA forecasts wholesale electricity prices will average $52 per megawatthour (MWh) in 2026, 11% higher than in 2025, driven largely by weather-related increases in a few regions. Most hubs remain near 2025 levels, while wholesale PJM prices rise 41%, and Northwest Mid-Columbia prices fall 23%. Record-breaking summer temperatures increased electricity consumption by 4% in 3Q26 compared with the same quarter last year, led by residential and commercial demand. In 2027, EIA expects commercial and industrial sector demand to grow close to 3%, while residential demand falls slightly.

The full October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.

The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, [email protected]
EIA Press Contact: [email protected]

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