Drought predictions return as conditions worsen

Sept. 14, 2026 - What will lakes look like in two months if they don't get rain and our late summer heat continues to cause high water supply losses due to evaporation?

Or, how will the lake levels change in the 11 reservoirs in the Brazos River Authority's Water Supply System if a normal amount of rain falls?

The reservoirs are feeling the impact of drought, so the BRA has created graphic illustrations as a way to help show potential changes over the next two months and what that might mean for local watering restrictions.

As a wholesale water provider, the BRA relies on its system of 11 reservoirs to keep the water flowing to faucets even during the worst droughts. Keeping a close eye on reservoir levels and staying ahead of potential shortages during dry spells is absolutely critical.

As of late, inflows (any water flowing in in the rivers and streams) into these reservoirs are virtually nonexistent, said BRA Lead Hydrologist Chris Higgins. This prompted the return of the projection graphics, which were last used in April 2026.

"We're making an assumption on what the future could be based on past hydrology. It's a statistical methodology we use based on historical hydrology. These aren't projections in your normal sense," Higgins said. "These aren't really where we think the reservoirs are going to be. They are 'what if' analyses of what happens if these reservoirs experience these conditions. Where the reservoirs are going to end up is probably somewhere in between what's on these two graphics."

At this time, six of the 11 reservoirs in the BRA's system are under a Stage 1 - Drought Watch: lakes Possum Kingdom, Granbury, Whitney, Aquilla, Proctor, and Limestone. While lakes Possum Kingdom and Proctor have been under the Stage 1 Drought Watch since March 27, 2026, due to the lack of rainfall and persistent drought conditions, the other four reached this status in August. (Learn more about this here.)

A Stage 1 - Drought Watch is a response to trigger levels set by the BRA's Drought Contingency Plan. The goal of the drought watch (which is one of four stages) is to ask water users to voluntarily reduce their water use by 5% by implementing their own drought contingency plans. Water users can reach that 5% target in whatever way works for them. For example, cities may alter water schedules or launch water conservation campaigns. Should Stage 2 triggering criteria be met, BRA customers will be asked to reduce water consumption by a mandatory 10% or more depending on conditions at that time.

This makes it even more important to know what's on the horizon.

The BRA will update the two-month reservoir projection graphics at the beginning of each month until conditions improve. These are in addition to the weekly reservoir and drought status graphics the BRA produces and issues every Thursday, which can be viewed here.

Currently, the BRA's Water Supply System is 91% full, and 100% of the basin is experiencing some level of drought, as it has been since Aug. 27. That was the first time 100% of the basin was experiencing some level of drought since March 31, 2026.

The two graphics that are part of the recent projections illustrate:

Projected Reservoir Status for Oct. 31, 2026, based on normal inflows and normal evaporation

• The BRA's Water Supply System will be 92% full, and three reservoirs will be under a Stage 1 - Drought Watch: lakes Aquilla, Proctor and Limestone. Lake levels for all 11 reservoirs will vary from 5.2 feet low to 0.1 feet low.

Projected Reservoir Status based on minimum inflows and high evaporation

• The BRA's Water Supply System will be 82% full, and all 11 reservoirs will be under a Stage 1 - Drought Watch. Lake levels for all 11 reservoirs will vary from more than 7 feet low to 1.6 feet low.

"Drought conditions have deteriorated rapidly across North and Central Texas since early summer as prolonged hot, dry weather has erased much of the improvement realized during the exceptionally wet late spring and early summer," states a National Weather Service September update. "A comparison of the U.S. Drought Monitor from late June and early September highlights the dramatic expansion of drought across nearly the entire 46-county forecast area, with Moderate Drought (D1) now widespread and pockets of Severe Drought (D2) redeveloping across portions of North Texas."

Despite some improving conditions, drought continued to expand across Texas this week, with 74% of the state experiencing drought conditions, according to the Office of the Texas State Climatologist. A few exceptions include southeast Texas, where former Tropical Storm Edouard dropped more than 10 inches of rain.

View the projected available storage and reservoir drawdown maps here.

The BRA's Drought Contingency Plan is required by the state and is intended to help preserve and extend water supplies during drought conditions. A copy of the plan can be found here.