ANRPC releases Monthly NR Statistical Report, May 2026

Foreword by Secretary-General

It is my honor to present the ANRPC Monthly Natural Rubber Market Report for May 2026. This report captures a phase marked by enduring price resilience and robust underlying conditions throughout the worldwide natural rubber market. The decline of Brent crude oil prices, which averaged USD 107.14 per barrel in May -a month­on-month slight decrease of 8.65%-driven by ease in geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, lent further upward impetus to rubber price. The following figures and analysis highlight the principal market developments shaping the natural rubber sector in May 2026:

World natural rubber production is projected to reach 15.337 million tons in 2026, up 2.4% from 14.971 million tons in 2025, led by gains in Thailand, China, India and Malaysia even as Indonesia and Viet Nam ease (Figure 2a). Monthly output fell to 997,000 tons in May (-4.7% y-o-y) on the wintering period and dry weather across Southeast and South Asia, while Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia advanced new incentive, export-governance

and investment measures to strengthen their rubber sectors. Global consumption is forecast to grow 1.3% to 15.550 million tons in 2026, led by China, India, Malaysia and Cambodia (Figure 2b). May consumption rose to 1.310 million tons (+4.6% y-o-y), led by China (617,000 tons) and India (118,000 tons), supported by steady tyre and EV-linked demand, resilient manufacturing PMls in China (50.0) and India (55.0), and record auto retail sales in India. Physical prices posted broad-based gains across all grades in May, as detailed in Figure 1 above: SMR-20 (+7.37%), STR-20 (+9.56%), RSS-3 (+6.25%), RSS-4 (+7.17%) and latex (+1.88%), with each grade trending higher through mid-month before easing into the close. Imports fell m-o-m for China (-12.88%) and India (-11.76%) but rose for Malaysia (+26.46%) and Viet Nam (+21.32%). On exports, Cambodia (+81.13%), Viet Nam (+19.58%) and Thailand (+1.49%) gained while Indonesia (-9.75%) and Malaysia (-10.81%) declined.

The Malaysian ringgit slipped 0.25% to close at RM3.97 /USO, while the Thai baht traded between 32.21 and 32.70, averaging 32.52. Malaysia's and Thailand's Ql 2026 GDP grew 5.4% and 2.8% respectively, both decelerating from the prior quarter. The SHFE September 2026 contract averaged 17,659.29 CNY/ton (+3.82% m-o-m) and the SGX July 2026 contract averaged USO 2.20/kg (+ 7.26% m-o-m), both reflecting tightening supply and firm downstream demand.

Elevated US-China trade tensions, the Iran-Israel-US conflict and a steady US Fed rate (3.50-3.75%) pose headwinds, while accelerating EV adoption and tight feedstock supply from adverse weather continue to support prices; the EU's lower anti-dumping duties on Chinese tyres add a note of positive sentiment.

ANRPC remains committed to providing timely, authoritative, and objective analysis of the global natural rubber market in fulfilment of its mandate as an inter-governmental organization dedicated to the sustainable development of the natural rubber sector. I encourage member governments, industry partners, and all stakeholders to engage closely with the analysis presented in this report and to draw upon these findings in the formulation of evidence-based policies and strategic decisions.

For subscription enquiries or to renew an existing subscription, please contact the ANRPC Secretariat at [email protected].

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Suttipong Angthong

Secretary-General