Import Cargo Volume to See Year-Over-Year Gain Again in June, Then Remain Below 2025 Levels Into Fall

WASHINGTON - Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to see a skewed year-over-year bump again this month in anticipation of more tariffs and rising fuel prices but then remain below last year's levels into the fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that's partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty."

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the year-over-year gain expected in June is partly because of the comparison against import levels that dropped sharply after President Donald Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025. But higher shipping costs and worries about additional tariffs imposed after those tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court are also a concern.

"We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs," Hackett said. "The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll."

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units - one 20-foot container or its equivalent - in April, although the Port of New York and New Jersey has not yet reported its numbers. That was down 5.1% from March and down 7.3% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported May numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year's "Liberation Day" tariffs. June is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3%, with the increase also because of low imports a year earlier. July is forecast at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% year over year; August at 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6%; and September at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2%. October is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1%.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6% from the same period in 2025 thanks, in part, to the May-June increases.

Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation's largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs - 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com

About Hackett Associates
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com