Unprecedented Amazon fires in 2024 fuel record CO₂ emissions

The Amazon rainforest in 2024 suffered its most devastating forest fire season in over two decades, triggering roughly the annual emissions of Germany, a new JRC study finds. The estimated 791 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released into the atmosphere mark a sevenfold increase from the average of the previous two years.

The study, published today in Biogeosciences, finds that 3.3 million hectares of Amazon forest was impacted by fires last yearalone. This area was larger than Belgium and represents 0.7% of Amazon's remaining intact forest. It is the largest share of Amazon forest hit by fires since 2021 and nine times bigger than the average in more than 20 years.

This extraordinary surge in wildfires is likely driven by a combination of extreme drought stress due to global warming, forest fragmentation, and unsustainable land management leading to significant forest degradation. The unprecedented amount of both burned forest and the resulting carbon emissions expose the region's growing ecological fragility despite a slowing deforestation.

The escalating frequency and extent of fires threaten to push the Amazon rainforest closer to a catastrophic tipping point. The study highlights the urgency of taking coordinated action to mitigate these drivers and prevent irreversible ecosystem damage.

It lists actions such as reducing fire use, strengthening law enforcement, and supporting local and Indigenous stewardship efforts. In addition, the authors highlight the need for enhanced international climate mitigation finance mechanisms that recognise and address forest degradation, not just deforestation.

The work carried out by JRC scientists is part of a wider cooperation between the EU and Latin America countries in the scope of the EU Amazonia+ program and a contribution to EU efforts in the fight against climate change, including the development of methods to benchmark the monitoring of forest resources and carbon emissions globally. The results of the study can help national authorities in the pan-Amazon region to improve national capacities to prevent, reduce and manage forest fires from a regional perspective, relying on EU best practices.

The analysis relied on combining data from two JRC-developed tools: the Global Wildfire Information System and the Tropical Moist Forest monitoring system. The latter pinpoints forest areas affected by fires and leaves out land areas used in deforestation activity or already deforested land.

To assess emissions and the related uncertainties across variables such as above-ground biomass density, combustion completeness, and the percentage of forest cover affected by fire, the authors applied a Monte Carlo simulation framework, an approach using computer modelling to obtain numerical results from random sampling.

Geographical spread of the wildfires

Most of the forests affected by the fires are in Brazil (50%) and Bolivia (42%), followed by Venezuela (4.9%) and Peru (1.5%). In Brazil, 2024 marked the highest level of emissions from forest degradation on record. In Bolivia, fires affected over 9% of the country's remaining intact forest cover, which is a dramatic blow to a region that has historically served as a vital biodiversity reservoir and carbon sink.

"Invisible" forest degradation

While past studies have highlighted the dangers of deforestation, this work sheds light on a more insidious threat: fire-driven degradation that erodes forest integrity without necessarily resulting in the complete clearing of the forest. Degraded forests may look intact from above, but they lose a significant portion of their biomass and ecological function. Unlike clear-cut areas, these degraded forests often are missed by national accounting systems and international policy frameworks.

Background

The EU has a long-standing cooperation with the countries of Latin America through association and trade agreements, political and cooperation dialogues. Support to wildfire management in the region aims to reduce the impact of wildfires in the Amazon and neighbouring countries in cooperation with national authorities and international organisations.

Specifically, the Amazonia + programme - led by the Commission's Directorate-General for International Partnerships - aims to improve the capacity of the countries of the Amazon basin to mitigate carbon emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change, significantly reduce deforestation and forest degradation and improve their biodiversity.

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Extensive fire-driven degradation in 2024 marks worst Amazon forest disturbance in over two decades

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