Insight Guru Inc.
10/16/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/16/2026 21:06
Steel Dynamics Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, October 19, 2026. The company has a market value of about $34.7 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $20.5 billion in revenue and $2.2 billion in operating profit, with net income of $1.6 billion.
How the stock moves after the release will depend on how the results and outlook compare with expectations. What history can offer is the base rate: how often, and how far, the stock has moved after past reports.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Steel Dynamics Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 50% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 58%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 10 positive 1D returns is 4.2%, and the median of the 10 negative ones is -1.8%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 10.0% and -4.1%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/21/2026 | 1.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% |
| 4/21/2026 | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% |
| 1/27/2026 | 1.3% | 7.6% | 10.5% |
| 10/21/2025 | 5.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.7% | -3.2% | -4.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | 4.3% | 10.1% | 12.6% |
| 1/23/2025 | -0.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% |
| 10/17/2024 | 4.0% | -0.9% | 6.1% |
| 7/18/2024 | -0.7% | -5.2% | -9.2% |
| 4/24/2024 | -3.2% | -3.0% | -1.1% |
| 1/24/2024 | 0.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% |
| 10/19/2023 | -4.1% | -3.5% | 6.3% |
| 7/20/2023 | -3.0% | -1.5% | 0.1% |
| 4/21/2023 | -1.3% | -6.4% | -12.9% |
| 1/26/2023 | 10.0% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
| 10/20/2022 | 6.2% | 21.5% | 25.2% |
| 7/21/2022 | 3.9% | 6.9% | 24.0% |
| 4/22/2022 | -0.3% | -4.3% | -12.8% |
| 1/26/2022 | -1.8% | 6.4% | 16.9% |
| 10/21/2021 | -3.1% | -0.8% | -2.2% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -3.2% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.0% | 21.5% | 25.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.1% | -6.4% | -12.9% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| 3 Years | 0.20 | -0.03 | -0.12 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Commercial Metals (CMC) usually reports a few weeks before Steel Dynamics, and has already reported this season: its stock rose 0.1% the day after its October 15 report. The table compares each peer's one-day reaction to its own earnings with Steel Dynamics' one-day reaction to the report that followed, for the 14 quarters in which CMC reported first. The correlation is -0.14; the closer to 1, the more the peer's reaction has foreshadowed Steel Dynamics', and a negative value means it has tended to point the other way.
| STLD Earnings Date | STLD 1D | CMC 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/21/2026 | 1.3% | 3.9% |
| 4/21/2026 | 5.2% | -4.7% |
| 1/27/2026 | 1.3% | -3.6% |
| 10/21/2025 | 5.2% | -7.3% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.7% | 1.2% |
| 1/23/2025 | -0.4% | 3.1% |
| 7/18/2024 | -0.7% | 3.8% |
| 1/24/2024 | 0.3% | 7.5% |
| 10/19/2023 | -4.1% | -9.6% |
| 7/20/2023 | -3.0% | 8.8% |
| 4/21/2023 | -1.3% | 3.1% |
| 1/26/2023 | 10.0% | -0.6% |
| 10/20/2022 | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| 1/26/2022 | -1.8% | 0.6% |
| Correlation | - | -0.14 |
An earnings release can move one stock sharply in either direction. A diversified portfolio spreads that risk. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds about 30 quality businesses, rebalanced with rules, and has a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.
Insight Guru Inc. published this content on October 16, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on October 17, 2026 at 03:06 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]