Professor Works To Strengthen Global Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

Dr. Megan Lickley, Assistant Professor at Georgetown University's Earth Commons Institute for Environment & Sustainability and the Science, Technology and International Affairs (STIA) Program, has been awarded $4 million from the UK-based Quadrature Climate Foundation (QFC) to advance global monitoring of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are regulated under the Montreal Protocol.

The Montreal Protocol, adopted in 1987, is a landmark international treaty designed to phase out substances that deplete the Earth's ozone layer, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). It is widely regarded as one of the most successful international environmental agreements in history, with every nation in the world committing to its goals. More recently, the Kigali Amendment expanded its scope to include HFCs-potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.

A central challenge of the Kigali Amendment is verification. While countries self-report annual HFC production and consumption, "there isn't a formal verification process for this," explains Lickley. "One way of verifying HFC consumption is to study the emissions at the country level… but the problem is, we have a limited network of observations of HFCs in the atmosphere." Her three-year initiative aims to close that gap.

Under Lickley's leadership, the project will establish 5-10 new atmospheric flask sampling sites in under-monitored regions including South Asia, Africa, South America, and potentially the Persian Gulf, areas where consumption is rising but emissions data is extremely limited. "We predominantly measure them in the U.S. and Europe, and increasingly so in China and some other neighboring countries. But elsewhere we have very few measurements."

The goal, she says, is twofold: "to increase our measurements of HFCs in under-sampled regions… and then to use these measurements to evaluate emissions and verify whether or not emissions match what we would expect given countries'reporting under the Montreal Protocol."

Collaboration is Key

Lickley is partnering with atmospheric scientist Dr. Taylor Jones from Georgetown University's Earth Commons, as well as researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's (MIT) AGAGE monitoring network; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which will analyze collected air flasks; and the University of Bristol, which brings decades of experience monitoring these gases in the atmosphere. The project also includes a growing network of regional academic partners in under-monitored regions.

As part of the grant, Lickley's lab will grow significantly-bringing on postdocs, a research scientist, a site manager, and engaging regional collaborators. "Our hope is that we can find some collaborators who are not only able to collect flasks for us, but also interested in the bigger scientific questions," she says. "I'm really excited about growing the network of people who are working on these gases, both at Georgetown and abroad."

Informing Policy

Beyond the data, Lickley sees potential for real policy implications. "One could better understand feedstock emissions," she says, referring to the often-overlooked intermediate chemicals used in gas production. "Another potential policy outcome could be new efforts to recover the gases contained in old equipment before they're leaked out into the atmosphere. These are banks of gases and if we have a better sense of where they are, we may better recover them before they're emitted."

She is hopeful that improved emissions data will directly inform policy efforts, especially as countries look to strengthen enforcement and maximize the impact of global climate agreements. "With better observations, there's an opportunity to better verify whether or not countries are complying with their agreements to phase down these potent greenhouse gases," she says.

Ultimately, Lickley believes that combining scientific data with effective policy is essential for meaningful change. "It's about creating a feedback loop between measurement and enforcement," she says. "Without this kind of independent verification, we don't really know how effective our international agreements are in practice."

A Bold Step Forward

The research also marks a new direction for Lickley's lab. "I haven't been a measurement person previously," she notes. "Most of my work has been on building models to monitor compliance with the Montreal Protocol, looking at an array of these gases…So this is somewhat new, building directly off of my previous work while also expanding the measurement network with these collaborators."

Though the funding is for three years, Lickley hopes it's just the beginning. "If this is successful in the next few years, if we're able to establish these sites and get worthwhile data, my hope is that this is just the beginning of a longer study."

"I Want the Best for Them"

The motivation behind the work is both professional and personal. "The Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987, the year I was born and not far from where I grew up," she explained. "This treaty has endured 4 decades and as a result our world has avoided catastrophic ozone loss. In 2022, the US Senate voted 69-27 in favor of ratifying the Kigali Amendment, the year my son was born. Now within sight of the US Capitol, scientists at Georgetown will be working to monitor the implementation of this treaty with collaborators around the world. It feels meaningful to be working on a scientific problem of global importance and thinking that one day my children might see some benefit from this work, just as I have from those who worked on the ozone problem for decades." With this funding, she sees an opportunity to build a global data infrastructure that will empower climate policy, shape international agreements, and help limit global warming for decades to come.