Trump’s War on Drug Cartels: Interdiction in the Caribbean or Invasion of Venezuela

Analysis by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park

Published October 3, 2025

President Trump's notification to Congress determining an "armed conflict" with drug cartels marks the latest escalation in ongoing U.S. operations in the Caribbean against Venezuelan drug boats. While raising concerns of potential military intervention in Venezuela, assets currently deployed fall short of what an invasion or raid would require.

1. The Trump administration "determined that the United States is in a non-international armed conflict" with drug cartels, according to a notificationto Congress sent on October 2-just as the U.S. military strucka fourth suspected Venezuelan drug boat a day later. Air and naval assets have been used for counter-drug missions before. Missile strikes on boats without warning and with the crew onboard, however, raise legal questions and mark a departure from traditional Coast Guard interdiction methods of warning, disabling, and (if necessary) boarding.
2. The current U.S. military operations against cartel boats resemble swatting flies with golden hammers: effective, yet inefficient. The Coast Guard offers more cost-effective alternatives. At the same time, the current deployed assets are inadequate for larger and riskier operations, such as a ground invasion or raids against drug cartels or the Maduro regime. Doctrinal guidelines and past campaigns suggest that nearly 50,000 troops, at a minimum, would be required for an invasion.
   
3. The Trump administration's war determination, ongoing strikes, and the positioning of warships and aircraft near Venezuela, even if insufficient for ground operations, puts the Maduro regime on notice about potential U.S. military capacity and political resolve. With the assets in place today, U.S. forces could conduct air or missile strikes against Venezuela from a sanctuary offshore-albeit diverting resources from the Indo-Pacific.

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