Amo, Casar Demand Explanation from CFTC Over Suspiciously Precise, Massively Profitable Prediction Market Bets on Trump’s War in Iran

WASHINGTON, DC - TODAY, Congressman Gabe Amo (D-RI-01) and Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX-35) demanded answers from Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig over his reluctance to crack down on extremely accurate, tremendously profitable prediction market trades on Trump's war of choice in Iran.

A 60 Minutesinvestigation identified nine anonymous accounts that collectively made more than $2.4 million through prediction market event contracts on the Iran War, with a stunning 98% success rate.

The Members write:

"Recent reporting has identified accounts that placed highly accurate, high-volume bets tied to war in Iran that appear unusually well-timed and highly profitable.

Given the weak safeguards, opaque governance, and minimal accountability on these platforms, the public has a right to know whether participants may have used their access to nonpublic or privileged information to profit.

Markets tied to war and government action create a perverse incentive structure for those with the most sensitive information to profit the most.

That risk is unacceptable, which is why I urge you to conduct further scrutiny of these platforms to protect against corruption, address platform governance vulnerabilities, and strengthen safeguards against market manipulation."

The full text of the letter can be found here.

Background

In March, Congressman Amo and Congressman Casar co-led the introduction of the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, a bicameral bill to ban bets on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.

The CFTC is responsible for overseeing and regulating derivatives and event contract markets.

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