India: Sugar Semi-annual

FAS New Delhi maintains India's centrifugal sugar production for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 at 35 million metric tons (MMT) (raw value basis), equivalent to 33 MMT of crystal sugar. This is supported by favorable rainfall during the 2024 southwest monsoon, which facilitated planting, and the 2025 monsoon which facilitated enhanced yields. Post's MY2025/26 sugar consumption also remains unchanged at 31 MMT (raw value), driven by steady strong demand during the festival season and sustained growth in both organized and informal food service sectors. Post revised upward MY 2025/26 projections for raw sugar exports to 2 MMT, reflecting expectations of a robust sugarcane production year and an improved sugar recovery rate of 9.5 percent. Post maintains the forecast for MY 2025/26 ending stocks at 8.5 MMT, while revising the current year's ending stock estimate higher to 6 MMT, reflecting adjustments in production and export dynamics.