10 things to know about the property market: September 2026

IRVINE, Calif., September 24, 2026 - Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest list on the 10 things to know about the property market for September 2026.

National headlines conceal growing fractures within the housing market. Equity-rich homeowners are tempering market distress signals. However, Cotality data shows that contract cancellations are rising alongside fewer pending contracts as affordability strains the market. Price momentum remains split by region, and elevated interest rates are keeping refinance opportunities scarce, pushing some borrowers toward ARMs for payment relief.

Housing Market Trends

1. National price momentum appears stable, but is fracturing at the metro level. U.S. home prices increased just 1.4% year over year in July, but 46 of the 100 largest metros posted monthly declines. Meanwhile, 19 metros recorded negative three-month momentum -nearly double June's count. Higher mortgage rates have hit the brakes on supply-rich and affordability-stretched markets, while inventory-constrained areas in the Northeast and Midwest maintain momentum.

1. High-cost coastal markets reverse course. San Francisco still posted a 7% annual home-price gain in July, yet prices fell 2.6% over the past three months, including a 1.4% drop in July. Similar weakness in San Jose signals that buyer fatigue, high ownership costs, and shifting tech wealth expectations are cooling these hubs.

1. Inventory shortages fuel gains in the Northeast and Midwest. Low inventory and newcomers to these more affordable markets are keeping demand strong across northeastern and midwestern metros despite national headwinds. Bridgeport, CT led the 100 largest metros with a 9.0% year-over-year gain and 3.9% growth over the latest three months, followed by Albany, NY at 6.8% growth annually and 3.9% growth over three months; Chicago came in at 6.3% and 2.8%; Hartford, CT at 5.4% and 2.3%; Camden, NJ at 5.4% and 1.9%; and Newark, NJ at 5.4% and 1.3%.

1. Homebuyers are running out of steam. After seven consecutive months of outperforming 2025 levels, closed sales dipped 5% year-over-year in August. Lower mortgage rates earlier this year spurred buying, but July's rate spike quickly chilled activity. Pending contracts dropped 1% year-over-year in July and 3% in August, signaling further contraction ahead.

1. Major metros see sharp sales drops. Sales were down 16% in Houston and 9% in Dallas. Tech layoffs contributed to a 12% year-over-year decline in Seattle. Only three out of the top 25 metros saw year-over-year gains in closed sales: San Antonio (+6%), Orlando (+1.5%), and New York City ( 1%).

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Sales drops hit major metros

Data source: Cotality, 2026

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1. Canceled contracts hit 5-year high. Nearly 12% of June's contracts hadn't closed by the 60-day mark in August, marking the highest cancellation rate in the last five years, which was 1.3 percentage points higher than August 2025. Rising mortgage rates have pushed buyers without rate locks beyond their affordability boundaries. Cancellations likely accounted for at least a third of August's closed sales declines, and rising rates may lead to elevated cancellations through autumn.

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Canceled contracts tick up

Data source: Cotality, 2026

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Mortgage Market Trends

1. Mega investors quietly return to the market. Institutional investors who own 1,000 or more homes have gradually returned after hitting a low purchase share of 1.4% in February following proposed legislative restrictions. The passage of the ROAD to 21st Century Housing Act provided the regulatory clarity needed for institutional capital to reactivate, and in August, mega-investors purchased 2.2% of single-family homes.

1. Historic home equity levels insulate borrowers. Average borrower equity reached $310,000 in Q2 2026, remaining near the historic highs first reached in Q3 2023. Only 2% of mortgage borrowers are underwater. Even if prices dipped 15%, that share would rise by only 5%. A market-altering 40% drop in prices would put 25% of homeowners underwater on their mortgage - which was the peak seen in 2010 - demonstrating how resilient household balance sheets remain.

1. Most homeowners still can't win the refinance math. With mortgage rates near 7%, less than 3% of outstanding mortgages carry rates high enough to justify a refinance. Most borrowers remain firmly locked into pandemic-era low rates, keeping rate-and-term refinance volumes virtually frozen.

1. Buyers turn to ARMs for affordability. In August, the conventional adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share rose to about 19.5% by dollar volume and 11.0% by loan count, near the highest levels since the 2022 rate shock. With the 30-year fixed rate around 6.7%, buyers - especially those with larger loans - are again turning to ARMs for payment relief.

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About Cotality

Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at  https://www.cotality.com.  

Media Contact

Charity Head 

Cotality 

[email protected]

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