The South African pecan industry is export-oriented, with over 97 percent of in-shell pecan exports destined for China. In Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26 (starting April 2026), South Africa is expected to increase in-shell pecan exports to China, benefiting from a zero-duty policy implemented May 1, 2026. Additionally, China has imposed anti-dumping duties on the United States and Mexico; therefore, South Africa is likely to capture the market share these two countries are likely to lose. Shelled pecan exports, destined mainly for the European Union, are estimated to drop in MY 2025/26 due to a new maximum permissible nickel level requirement for pecans, implemented on July 1, 2025.