Import Cargo Volumes Face Headwinds From Tariffs and Increasing Fuel Prices

WASHINGTON - Import volume at major U.S. container ports is not being significantly affected by the conflict in Iran but ocean carriers are seeing a related increase in fuel costs that could eventually affect retailers and their customers, according to the Global Port Trackerreport released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"Just because retailers don't import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn't mean the U.S. supply chain isn't affected by the turmoil there," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it's rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers' pockets. Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact. In the meantime, retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices."

President Donald Trump last month announced a temporary 10% global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court ruled that the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal. Last week, he adjusted Section 232 tariffs that were imposed last year on imported steel, aluminum and copper and announced new Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceutical products and ingredients..

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said volume at U.S. container imports has been slowed by tariffs but is not being significantly affected by the situation in Iran because little U.S. container cargo comes from the region. Nonetheless, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up the price of fuel for container ships worldwide at the same time consumers are paying more for gasoline, he said. In addition, ports in Asia depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf and could see shortages if the conflict is not resolved soon. It is too soon to assess the impact of the two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday, he said.

"The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at U.S. ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing," Hackett said. "Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users."

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units - one 20-foot container or its equivalent - in February, although the Port of New York/New Jersey has not yet reported its data. That was down 7.5% from January and down 4.2% year over year. February is traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia.

Ports have not reported March numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% year over year. April is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6 year over year; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7.3%; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9%; July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%, and August at 2.18 million TEU, down 6%.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.3 million TEU, down 1.8% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The year-over-year increases in May and June are largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced in April 2025.

Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTrackeror by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation's largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs - 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com

About Hackett Associates
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com