Jackdaw field consent is correct for UK climate targets and the economy, Wood Mackenzie analysis shows

The UK government has granted fresh consent for the Jackdaw gas/condensate field in the North Sea. OPRED and the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero confirmed the decision on 21 October 2026, with first gas possible within weeks.

The decision ends a process dating back to January 2025, when a judicial review suspended the original 2022 development consent on the grounds that scope 3 emissions had not been fully considered. The regulator accepted Adura's submission that Jackdaw's climate impact is not significant and will not materially affect the UK's climate change commitments. Wood Mackenzie's P50 estimate puts total greenhouse gas emissions over the field's nine-year life at 24 MtCO2e, equivalent to 1.8% of remaining UKCS emissions.

Jackdaw is a 68 mmboe gas/condensate field 225 kilometres east of Aberdeen, the third largest pre-production asset on the UKCS after Rosebank and Cambo. It is 100% owned by Adura, a 50/50 joint venture between Shell UK and Equinor UK, with £1.2 billion invested to date. We forecast production in 2027 to average 140 million cubic feet per day, or 6% of UKCS gas supply.

The emissions case rests on what domestic production displaces. The UK's gas demand is more than double UKCS supply, and the country will remain a net gas importer across all future scenarios, including net zero. Replacing Jackdaw's output with an equivalent volume of US LNG would have resulted in a net increase of 3.5 MtCO2e in scope 1 and 2 emissions. The UK Climate Change Committee is clear that meeting carbon budgets requires reducing fossil fuel demand through accelerating the uptake of EVs, heat pumps, and wider electrification. Blocking domestic gas supply would not have advanced that objective.

The decision arrives as energy prices have moved sharply higher. NBP gas prices have climbed to over 200 pence per therm, the highest since 2022, while Brent has again surged past US$100 per barrel. Under our Q4 2026 base price assumptions, Wood Mackenzie estimates that government tax receipts from Jackdaw could total £1.5 billion (nominal), representing a 69% share of the remaining undiscounted pre-tax cash flow. Eighty per cent of this sum could accrue in this parliament.

For Adura, we estimate Jackdaw will generate £430 million of post-tax cash flow in 2027 alone, while the higher prices help lift the project IRR from 9% to over 14%.

The stakes extended well beyond a single field. Had approval been withheld, Wood Mackenzie assessed that over £20 billion (real terms) of future UKCS greenfield investment would very likely have been lost, along with the industry's confidence in the consent process. Jackdaw and Rosebank together are expected to support over 800 jobs and deliver a combined 20-year gross value add of over £25 billion to the UK economy. Jackdaw alone will account for 11% of Adura's net production over the project's lifetime.

Gail Anderson, Research Director, North Sea Upstream at Wood Mackenzie, said: "Blocking Jackdaw would require the UK to import more emissions-intensive LNG to meet UK gas demand. We estimate that would have increased net emissions by 3.5 MtCO2e, not reduced them. The correct way to tackle the climate crisis is to reduce demand for oil and gas.

At current prices, Jackdaw could generate £1.5 billion in vital tax receipts for the Treasury. Blocking it would have seen these revenues go elsewhere, while over £20 billion of future greenfield UKCS investment would very likely be lost. These are compelling reasons why North Sea production should remain a vital part of the UK's energy mix."