A Decade of Changes in State Fertility Rates for Women Age 30 and Older: United States, 2015–2024

Summary

During 2015 to 2024, fertility rates decreased for women ages 30-34 in 37 states and D.C., while rates increased for women 35-39 in 35 states and for women 40-49 in 46 states.

Fertility rates for women 30 and older varied widely by state in 2024. Among women ages 30-34, rates ranged from 60.1 to 122.5 per 1,000, and among those 35-39, from 35.0 to 74.5-more than a twofold difference in both groups. For women 40 and older, rates ranged from 3.3 to 13.6, representing a more than fourfold difference.

The trends shown in this report for the decade 2015 to 2024 are consistent with longer historical increases in fertility rates among women 35 and older. Longer-term trends have been more variable for women 30-34 (2 -4,6). Provisional birth data for 2025 suggest that declines in births to women younger than 35 and increases in births to women 35 and older continue (7).

Definitions

Fertility rate for women ages 30-34: Number of births to women 30-34 per 1,000 women 30-34.

Fertility rate for women ages 35-39: Number of births to women 35-39 per 1,000 women 35-39.

Fertility rate for women age 40 and older: Number of births to women 40 and older per 1,000 women 40-49.

Data source and methods

This report uses data from the 2015 and 2024 natality file of the National Vital Statistics System. The vital statistics natality file is based on information from U.S. birth certificates and includes information for all births occurring in the United States.

Fertility rates shown for women ages 30-39 in this report are presented by 5-year age groups, 30-34 and 35-39. The fertility rate for women 40 and older is presented for the 10-year age group 40-49, which combines 40-44 and 45 and older because of the comparatively smaller number of births to women in the older age group. Most births occurring to women 40 and older were to women 40-49, totaling more than 99% in 2015 and 2024 (2,4).

Rates for 2024 will be published in "Births: Final Data for 2024" and are available through CDC WONDER (2,7,8). Rates for 2015 have been revised using the intercensal population estimates for 2015, developed from a base that integrates the 2010 Census, 2020 Census, Vintage 2020 estimates, and 2020 Demographic Analysis estimates. These revised rates may differ from those published in "Births: Final Data for 2015," which were based on postcensal population estimates derived from the 2010 Census (4,9).

For consistency, rates for 2015 are presented using the new National Center for Health Statistics criteria for showing rates that were adopted beginning with 2023 data (10).

References to percent changes (increases or decreases in rates) are based on pairwise comparisons of rates tested using a two-tailed z test at p < 0.05. All changes are statistically significant unless otherwise noted.

About the author

Brady E. Hamilton is with the National Center for Health Statistics, Division of Vital Statistics.

References

1. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK. Births in the United States, 2024. NCHS Data Brief. 2025 Jul;(535):1-8. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/174613 .
2. Osterman MJK, Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Driscoll AK, Valenzuela CP. Births: Final data for 2024. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2026. [Forthcoming].
3. Osterman MJK, Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Driscoll AK, Valenzuela CP. Births: Final data for 2023. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2025 Mar;74(1):1-87. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/175204 .
4. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJ, Driscoll AK, Mathews TJ. Births: Final data for 2015. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2017 Jan;66(1):1-70. PMID: 28135188.
5. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital statistics of the United States, 2003, volume I, natality. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/vsus/vsus_1980_2003.htm.
6. Driscoll AK, Hamilton BE. Effects of age-specific fertility trends on overall fertility trends: United States, 1990-2023. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2025 Mar;74(3):1-11. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/174576 .
7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC WONDER. Natality information: Live births. Available from: https://wonder.cdc.gov/natality.html.
8. U.S. Census Bureau. State population by characteristics: 2020-2024. Datasets: Annual state resident population estimates for 6 race groups (5 race alone groups and two or more races) by age, sex, and Hispanic origin: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2024 (SC-EST2024-ALLDATA6). 2025. Available from: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-detail.html .
9. U.S. Census Bureau. Annual intercensal state resident population estimates for 6 race groups (5 race alone groups and two or more races) by age, sex, and Hispanic origin: April 1, 2010 to April 1, 2020 (SC-EST2020INT-ALLDATA6). Available from: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2020/intercensal/state/asrh/sc-est2020int-alldata6.csv .
10. National Center for Health Statistics. User guide to the 2024 natality public use file. Available from: https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Dataset_Documentation/DVS/natality/UserG uide2024.pdf .

Suggested citation

Hamilton BE. A decade of changes in state fertility rates for women age 30 and older: United States, 2015-2024. NCHS Data Brief. 2026 Apr;(556):1─11. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/252435 .

Copyright information

All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

National Center for Health Statistics

Carolyn M. Greene, M.D., Acting Director
Amy M. Branum, Ph.D., Associate Director for Science

Division of Vital Statistics

Paul D. Sutton, Ph.D., Director
Andrés A. Berruti, Ph.D., M.A., Associate Director for Science