How Much Upside Does PayPal Stock Have Without A Buyer

PayPal (PYPL) stock has gained about 24% over the past three months (as of Sept. 24, 2026), but it is still down 21% over the past year. In late August, the shares fell 13% in premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported that a consortium of Advent International and Stripe had abandoned its pursuit of PayPal.

With that pursuit reportedly over, the stock has to earn its gain on its own. So how much could the business still deliver over three years?

What Would Carry PayPal Stock Higher?

Revenue does a little more of the work than the multiple, and margin does none. The scenario grows revenue 5.1% a year, a light haircut to the 5.7% of the past twelve months. Net margin barely moves, holding at its three-year average of 14.3%, so earnings rise 15% by year three.

Payment volume at Venmo and Braintree grew in the mid-teens in the second quarter of 2026. CFO Jamie Miller also said the financial services portfolio, which includes credit and buy now pay later, is on pace to grow revenue at least twice as fast as the whole company in 2026.

PayPal trades at 9.4 times trailing earnings, against a three-year average of 13.8. The scenario lets that multiple recover only part of the gap, to 10.5. On those assumptions, the stock would be worth about $68 in three years, roughly 29% above today. Any further buybacks would add to that, since the share count is held flat.

Does PayPal's Own Outlook Back That Pace?

Management gives no full-year revenue guide. Its only company-wide revenue outlook covers the third quarter of 2026: low single-digit growth on a currency-neutral basis. Because that outlook covers a single quarter and excludes currency moves, it does not settle the scenario's annual pace either way. In the second quarter, revenue grew 5% as reported but 3% on a currency-neutral basis, so a low single-digit currency-neutral outlook can still mean faster reported growth.

On its July call, management said PayPal is on track for at least $1.5 billion of gross run-rate cost savings over the next two to three years. That is more than 4% of trailing revenue. Management intends to reinvest a significant portion of those savings in growth while improving operating leverage over time, so the scenario's flat margin does not count on that leverage.

Management expects momentum from its growth investments to build in the second half of 2027 and through 2028. PayPal next reports around late October.

Where Could PayPal Owners Lose That Gain?

The multiple is the biggest swing: if the P/E stays at 9.4, the upside falls to 15%. The weak spot is branded checkout, the company's core checkout business. Online branded checkout volume grew just 2% on a currency-neutral basis in the second quarter of 2026. Asked about markets outside the US, CFO Jamie Miller acknowledged greater competitive intensity.

Growth is the smaller risk. At 3.1% a year instead of 5.1%, the upside shrinks to 22%.

So the case rests on modest growth plus a partial recovery in the multiple. Owning PayPal also means sitting through big swings: over the past three years, the stock fell about 57% from peak to trough. Our forward valuation discount ranking lets you weigh this upside against what other stocks offer.

So Is PayPal Worth Holding Without A Buyer In Sight?

PayPal can still be worth holding, but the full gain depends on the multiple recovering part of its gap. Feeling torn is fair with a case this modest. Own a full position only if you could sit through another deep fall without selling, and own less if you could not. If you would rather not bet on one turnaround, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio spreads your money across quality businesses, sized and re-balanced with discipline. That portfolio has a track record of outpacing the three major indices.