Deportations may loom but the future is still Latino as their GDP hits fourth largest in the world

Latinos are and will continue to be key to America's future, according to the latest Latino GDP report from UCLA and California Lutheran University researchers. The economic contribution of U.S. Latinos in 2024 surpassed Japan's, generating the equivalent of the world's fourth largest GDP.

"Our data shows that the U.S. Latino GDP reached $4.4 trillion in 2024," said David Hayes-Bautista, distinguished professor of medicine at UCLA, professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, and co-author of the report. "It grew so much that it shattered records for economic vibrancy."

"The U.S. Latino GDP illustrates just how vital Latino strength and resilience are for our nation's economy," said Matthew Fienup, executive director of the Center for Economic Research & Forecasting at Cal Lutheran and a co-author of the report. "It's quite incredible - nearly 9% larger than the economy of Japan."

This finding echoes past releases as Latino educational attainment grew faster than non-Latinos, and Latinos demonstrated a higher labor force participation rate. Last year's report found that the Latino GDP crossed $4 trillion for the first time.

How the current moment affects the Latino GDP

Even in today's political climate, as immigrants, particularly Latinos, are targeted by deportations and arrests, the researchers emphasize that the importance and impact of Latinos to the economy cannot be tossed aside.

"The resiliency of the Latino economy has proven itself time and time again," Cal Lutheran economist Dan Hamilton said. "The country has been challenged, especially by the Great Recession of 2007-09 and the COVID-19 pandemic. But Latinos shook off the effects and continued a historic pattern of growth."

COVID-19 hit Latinos harder than almost any other group, with their age-adjusted death rate being twice as high as non-Hispanic whites for 2020. Even their GDP growth rate slowed. But within a year, even in the wake of COVID-19's aftereffects, the U.S. Latino GDP staged a remarkable recovery. Between 2019 -24, the U.S. Latino GDP has grown faster than India's and China's, with the fastest growth rate compared to the top 10 economies.

The researchers acknowledge that the recent deportation surges will take a toll on the Latino immigrant population. However, Latino labor force growth is driven by births rather than by immigration and will continue to grow by natural population increase.

"The number of babies in a year born minus the number of deaths is called natural population increase," Hayes-Bautista said. "Between 2018 and 2024, Latinos added an average of over 657,000 per year to that population, while the non-Hispanic white population increase has been negative, removing around 471,000 per year from that population."

In total, between 2018 and 2024, Latinos added 4.6 million to their population while the non-Hispanic white population reduced by 3.3 million.

With immigration at almost a standstill for 2025 and 2026, population growth in the U.S. will depend largely on this natural increase.

"The major economies that our nation competes with­ - China, Germany, Japan - all have negative labor force growth," said Paul Hsu, an epidemiologist at UCLA. "Only the U.S. sees positive labor force growth, and that growth comes primarily from the Latino population."

The researchers found that the Latino labor force grew 5.5% in 2024, the single strongest growth on record and 4.2 percentage points stronger than the non-Latino population.

"We expect that the deportation and immigration policies will have some effect on the Latino GDP," Fienup said. "But as with the Great Recession and COVID-19, Latinos will press through these challenges and continue to drive economic growth, benefitting all Americans."

Looking forward, the team emphasized that the national economy needs the contributions of the Latino population and it is imperative that Latinos be supported amid current challenges, especially the youth.

"The future is Latino," Hayes-Bautista said.

Additional key findings

• In 2024, U.S. Latinos' consumption hit $3 trillion, 25% larger than the entire economy of Italy and 32% larger than Canada.
• Finance and real estate is the top industry sector for the Latino GDP, amounting to $766 billion in economic activity by Latinos.
• The number of Latinos with a bachelor's degree or higher more than doubled between 2010 and 2024, increasing by 144.5% while non-Latinos only rose by 44.8%. Latino educational attainment grew 3.2 times faster than non-Latinos.
• From 2007 to 2023, the number of Latino-owned businesses, including both employer and non-employer businesses, increased nearly seven times faster than non-Latino.
• Within that same period, Latino-owned businesses which employ one or more workers grew nearly 20 times faster than non-Latino employer businesses.