Bolivia turns to the center

By Barbara Gutierrez [email protected] 11-17-2025

On Oct. 19, Bolivians chose political centrist Rodrigo Paz as president, ending nearly two decades of dominance from the left-wing Movement Toward Socialism party, or MAS, led by Evo Morales.

The vote signaled a shift to the right by the electorate, a move that was sparked by economic turmoil, which included fuel shortages, inflation, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

"This is the end of 20 years of governance of the MAS movement and socialism in Bolivia," said Callan Hummel, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia. "Bolivia is in the midst of a severe economic crisis, which is the largest since the mid-1980s, when there was record hyperinflation, and so Bolivians voted for a government that would get them out of the crisis."

Hummel sees this change as less of an ideological shift but more of a vote to "remove the incumbent who, for many good reasons, they blame for the economic crisis."

Hummel spoke during a seminar held Nov. 11 called "Bolivia at a Crossroads: Analyzing Election Outcomes." The seminar was co-sponsored by the University of Miami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas (UMIA) along with the College of Arts and Sciences, the Latin American Studies Program, and the Hanley Democracy Center.

Lillian Manzor, director of UMIA and professor in the Michele Bowman Underwood Department of Modern Languages and Literatures, welcomed the attendees to the event.

Eduardo Gamarra, professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Florida International University, also took part in the seminar. He spoke via Zoom from La Paz, Bolivia, where he attended the inauguration of Paz. John Twichell, senior lecturer and director of Latin American Studies at the College of Arts and Sciences, moderated the discussion.

Gamarra said that at the beginning of the early MAS administration under Evo Morales, who first became president in 2006, the government benefited from the exports of natural gas that enriched its coffers. Since then, the government has used most of that revenue to fund public services. These revenues were misused, and eventually this led to debt.

"The collapse that we see in the last five years is not only because of the mismanagement of the economy, but it occurs because there was no attempt to reproduce the refinery sector, and they did not invest in exploration of natural gas and other hydrocarbons," said Gamarra.

Paz, of the Christian Democratic Party, comes from a prestigious political family and was previously senator of Tarija. He has promised gradual market reforms while preserving social protections, or what he refers to as "capitalism for all."

One factor that helped him was running with a charismatic vice presidential candidate, ex-police Captain Edman Lara, who became popular among the working class and young with his use of social media.

"There are several reasons for Paz's success, but one is that he ran with Lara," said Hummel. "Lara is a young ex-cop that has a large social media following, and he does a lot of work around corruption and chasing out corruption among the police force."

Police institutions in Bolivia are among the least trusted institutions in the country, said Hummel.

Asked by Twichell what the likelihood is that Paz and the Christian Democrats can build an effective governing coalition in Congress, Hummel pointed out that there is "very little policy space to build coalitions in the short term," given dire economic conditions, combined with the long-term institutional trend of political party weakness in Bolivia and the broader region of Latin America. The likelihood that the Christian Democrats will become a "party vehicle" akin to the MAS is uncertain, said Hummel.

The challenges that the country faces are many, but Gamarra said that Paz has already shown what path he will take.

After his second-round runoff victory, Paz travelled to Washington, D.C., where he met with members of the Inter-American Development Bank as well as with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, among others. He has a pending meeting with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

As a result, Paz was able to secure enough promised funds to alleviate the fuel crisis affecting the country, said Gamarra.

"Bolivia will have to borrow from the IMF and accept pretty stringent conditions in order to maintain this honeymoon period," he said.

As noted by Twichell, with just over $100 million in foreign exchange reserves now on hand and inflation to tame, the new government faces foreign debt payments of nearly $400 million due next March-giving Paz just a few months to stabilize Bolivia's economy and arrange terms with lenders for debt repayment or risk a painful default.

Another challenge the government has is Lara, whom Gamarra called "a loose cannon." Lara wants to participate in all cabinet meetings-a role usually not given to the vice president-and he has travelled to different provinces speaking on behalf of the government.

"The biggest challenge this government will have to face is the absolute need to stabilize the economy, and secondly, how to give Lara a role that will keep him happy and useful and out of the way," said Gamarra.