Tulane researcher receives $3.7 million National Institutes of Health grant to study links between heat, wildfire smoke and autism risk

Tulane University climate and health scientist Mostafijur Rahman and Southern California researchers have secured a $3.7 million R01 grant from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, a unit of the National Institutes of Health, to study whether exposure to extreme heat and wildfire smoke during pregnancy may affect autism risk in children.

Rahman and other researchers will develop a "hyperlocal heat model" that can show heat patterns in areas as small as 30 meters across. It will employ satellite, meteorological and empirical data to develop models of exposure to wildfire-related fine and ultrafine particles, including emissions from forest fires and the combustion of buildings in populated areas nearby. These models will be cross-referenced with health data to assess risk factors for prenatal and early-life exposure.

Rahman, an assistant professor at the Celia Scott Weatherhead School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine at Tulane University, will work with co-principal investigators at the University of Southern California (USC) and Kaiser Permanente Southern California Department of Research & Evaluation.

Kaiser Permanente Southern California researchers are providing research expertise and information on more than 425,000 mother-child pairs, yielding real-world de-identified health data that apply broadly to various U.S. communities. More than 8,000 of those pregnancies resulted in children later diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder.

In early 2026, Rahman published preliminary findings examining heat and wildfire smoke separately in relation to autism risk.

Rahman will use the new funding to expand that study by distinguishing emissions from forest fires and urban building fires. The team will examine their combined effects with heat. They will also assess exposure to the catastrophic 2025 Los Angeles wildfires and subsequent autism risks.

The de-identified data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California will provide information about factors across the mother's life course, including residential history, socioeconomic conditions, other health conditions and related factors that may influence outcomes. California is an ideal setting for the study because both extreme heat and wildfire exposure are common in the region.

In addition to looking at wildfire and heat more broadly, Rahman also plans to drill down on the type of fire, whether forest fire or urban building fire, to determine which might be more toxic to the developing fetus. In addition, the research will look at possible mitigation factors, like greenspace, tree canopy and air conditioning. Trees and green spaces can reduce urban heat, while air conditioning reduces exposure to both heat and wildfire particles.

Early etiological studies on autism have largely focused on the genetic causes of the disorder, but there is a growing recognition in the scientific community that "autism is a multifactorial condition, with both genetic and environmental factors potentially contributing to risk," Rahman said.

Rahman's research could also have policy implications, calling for improved greenspace and canopy infrastructure and increased access to air conditioning. The results could also impact regional disaster planning.