U.S. Cement Industry's Economic Forecast Reflects Uncertainty of War's Future; Recession Still Unlikely

(April 30, 2026) Washington, D.C. - The American Cement Association's (ACA) Market Intelligence team has released its Spring Forecast for the industry, revising its growth rate expectations for 2026, and projecting that cement consumption will decline by 2.5%.

The forecast was presented yesterday at the industry's 2026 IEEE-IAS/ACA annual cement conference, held this year in Fort Lauderdale, FL. More than 1,300 industry stakeholders from 32 countries registered for this year's event, which is a new record for the technical conference.

In their Fall Forecast shared last November, ACA's market analysts determined the economy was on an increasingly tenuous footing, but there was not a clear stimulus for the U.S. to enter a recession. However, with the added, unpredicted start of the U.S.- Iran War in February, forecasters made a slight downward revision in their numbers. Despite this, the baseline forecast still does not expect the conflict to push the economy into a recession.

"A black swan event has come in the form of the conflict with Iran, and it's clear the longer hostilities in the Middle East continue, the weaker the cement forecast becomes," said Brian Schmidt, ACA's Senior Director of Economic Policy and Analytics.

The war has produced a restive bond market, which has pushed up borrowing costs; the prevailing mortgage rate is roughly equivalent to what it was before the Fed began cutting rates last September. All of this implies another weak year for private construction. Yet, ACA's expectations for the trajectory of cement consumption remain broadly unchanged for this year, while forecasters predict consumption will turn positive In 2027, despite growth being subdued by residual effects of 2026.

For more information on ACA's Spring Forecast, click here.

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The American Cement Association, (formerly the Portland Cement Association) founded in 1916, is the premier policy, research, education, and market intelligence organization serving America's cement manufacturers. ACA supports sustainability, innovation, and safety while fostering continuous improvement in cement manufacturing, distribution, infrastructure, and economic growth. For more information, visit www.cement.org.