Council briefing: New study examines factors behind trends in Pacific Northwest, national retail electricity prices

A recent study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Brattle Group, a consulting firm, finds that while retail electricity prices in the U.S. have increased in the past several years, these trends have tracked with inflation, on average. Electricity costs as a share of personal expenditures have also been declining in recent years, the study found.

A Brattle Group analyst presented the results of this study to the Council at its March meeting in Portland (read presentation | watch video). Principal Ryan Hledik also provided context for retail electricity rates in the Pacific Northwest, explained factors driving price changes, and discussed tools that can mitigate price increases.

Among the four Northwest states, retail rates are also still competitive, Hledik noted. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2024 the total average prices were the following:

• In Oregon it was 11.11 cents/kWh, which ranked as the 30^th lowest among U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
• In Montana it was 10.83 cents/kWh, which ranked 37^th.
• In Washington it was 10.13 cents/kWh, which ranked 39^th.
• In Idaho it was 9.51 cents/kWh, which ranked 44^th.

Yet, many electricity customers in the Northwest have undoubtedly noticed an increase in their monthly bills, mirroring a national trend in retail prices. The study provides insights into this trend, and was published in the Electricity Journal in October 2025.

Hledik explained that at the national level, the average nominal price of electricity has grown from 9.8 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to 12.9 cents/kWh in 2024. However, this does not account for inflation. The inflation-adjusted price in 2010 was 14.1 cents/kWH, and it has declined to 12.9 cents/kWh in 2024. The study relied on EIA data, and represents the "all-in" price, equivalent to total customer bills (including volumetric, demand, and fixed charges) divided by total retail electricity sales, and covers all costs associated with the provision of retail service (generation, transmission, and distribution).

Hledik delved deeper into the trend among U.S. states. Using the inflation-adjusted average retail electricity price from 2019-2024, he noted that the increase in Washington and Oregon has been between less than 1 cent/kWh, while in Idaho and Montana it has decreased by 1 cent/kWh.

While this places the region above the national average, Northwest states are still well below the much larger increases that California, New York, and New England states have experienced.

In explaining factors beyond inflation that are driving this trend, Hledik noted that extreme weather and wildfire mitigation have had a large impact on price increases, particularly in California. Northwest states such as Oregon are also experiencing this impact, but to a lesser extent than in California. Net energy metered solar has also had a large impact in California.

Investing in distribution and transmission system replacements and upgrades has had a medium impact in driving increases, along with state renewable energy portfolio standards. Customer load growth and market-based utility wind and solar generation have created medium-sized downward pressure on prices. Natural gas price volatility has created a mixed bag set of large impacts, both upward and downward, depending on prices, Hledik noted.

Comparing the West to other U.S. regions, investor-owned utilities had second-highest growth in expenditures related to the transmission and distribution system between 2019-2024. They had by far the highest growth in transmission system capital expenditure, reflecting significant investment made by PacifiCorp.

Hledik also discussed a series of recommendations that the Brattle Group and others have put forth to mitigate further electricity cost increases in the U.S., tailored to regulators, utilities, grid planners and operators, policymakers and elected officials, and others.

One of the principal recommendations is to improve system utilization so it adds load when there is spare capacity at times of the day to do so, or to add load in locations where there is spare headroom. Through demand response products and programs, utilities can also incentive technological and behavioral shifts in energy consumption, which can reduce peak demands and make loads more flexible.

Other recommendations include:

• Getting more value from the existing system by taking advantage of transmission up-sizing opportunities, facilitating inter-regional power transfers, and utilizing grid-enhancing technologies and advanced transmission technologies.
• Cost-effectively accelerating new load connections by streamlining processes or co-locating new generation and load.
• Accelerating necessary investment through proactive planning and procurement processes. This includes reforming procurement processes, improving load interconnection processes, and proactively planning for generation, distribution, and transmission system needs.
• Targeting affordability measures such as through energy conservation and bill assistance programs, exploring alternative financing, or implementing special rate structures for new large loads.