Senators Marshall Introduces Legislation to Bring Accuracy to CBO Budget Baselines

Washington - On Wednesday, U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, M.D. (R-Kansas) introduced theNo Bias in the Baseline Act, legislation that reforms the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) annual baseline to eliminate built-in fiscal distortions that have long skewed federal budget projections toward higher spending.

The CBO's annual baseline projects federal spending and revenues over a ten-year window and serves as the benchmark against which the cost of all legislative proposals in the House and Senate is measured. Currently, CBO is required to incorporate a series of assumptions that distort the baseline.

For example, CBO assumes that discretionary spending will automatically grow with inflation and that expiring programs will always be renewed, resulting in an inflated baseline that gives an unrealistic picture of the country's fiscal state. Senator Marshall's bill will require CBO to no longer make assumptions in its process, giving Congress the accurate information necessary to make well-informed decisions.

"Kansas families don't assume last year's budget automatically carries over to this year. They make tough choices when the numbers don't add up," said Senator Marshall.Congress should be held to the same standard. With our national debt exceeding $39 trillion, this bill brings accountability and honest budgeting back to Washington."

The No Bias in the Baseline Act would:

• Restore Decision-Making Back to Congress:
  • CBO should be providing Members of Congress with the resources necessary to make well-informed decisions, rather than assume lawmakers will choose the most expensive option as the starting point. This bill returns those financial decisions to where they Constitutionally belong: Congress
• Remove Spending Biases from the Baseline:
  • By restoring the baseline to accurately reflect current law, this bill ensures future budget negotiations will no longer start at an already-inflated starting point
• Realistically Score Legislation:
  • The current law baseline must remove distortions that automatically price in expensive programs beyond their expiration date. This bill ensures that cost estimates reflect reality

Background:

The assumptions that CBO makes, which they acknowledge lead to discrepancies, are statutorily required to be incorporated into the baseline and deviate from current law. In fact, about 25% of federal spending is simply assumed, for example:

• $18 trillion in discretionary outlays for appropriations that have not yet been enacted
• $1 trillion in outlays for trust fund programs that will be exhausted
• $1.8 trillion in outlays for mandatory spending programs that expire under current law
• $386 billion in revenues from excise taxes that expire under current law
• $3.2 trillion in net interest costs resulting from the above assumptions

Full text of the bill is available here.

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