Blockchain partners with Polymarket

Big news.

We've partnered with Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, so you can now explore and trade on real-world outcomes without ever leaving the app. This means you can take a view on pretty much anything: Elections, interest rates, award season, and football. Of course football.

Want to see for yourself? Dive into the app today and find out more.

Explore prediction markets

But wait, what's a prediction market, actually?

A prediction market is a marketplace where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Instead of buying a share of a company, you're buying a share of an outcome: a simple "Yes" or "No" on a question like Will this team lift the trophy? or Will rates be cut before September?

Every share resolves at either $1 (if you were right) or $0 (if you weren't). In between, shares trade anywhere from a cent to ninety-nine cents, with prices floating up and down as people buy and sell, just like a stock.

The price is the probability

Here's the idea that makes prediction markets genuinely fascinating. If "Yes" shares on a question are trading at 62¢, the market is collectively saying there's roughly a 62% chance it happens. Price and probability are the same number in different outfits.

A quick example. Say a market asks whether a certain team wins a certain final, and "Yes" is trading at 62¢. You buy 100 shares for $62. If they win, each share resolves at $1: you collect $100, a $38 profit. If they lose, the shares resolve at $0, and your $62 is gone.

Why the crowd is worth listening to

Prediction markets are set directly by thousands of people putting real money behind what they actually believe. It's this 'skin in the game' that filters out cheap talk. When news breaks (a red card, a surprise poll, a central-bank hint), prices react in seconds, because traders update their positions much faster than headlines do.

That's why prediction markets have earned a reputation as some of the sharpest forecasting tools around. They're not crystal balls, upsets happen, and that's rather the point, but as a live snapshot of what the world collectively expects, they're hard to beat.

Okay, but how is this different from betting?

Fair question, and there are three big differences. First, there's no house setting odds against you. Prices come from other traders, and they move with the market. Second, you're never locked in: you can sell your position at any point before the event resolves, whether that's to lock in a profit early or cut a loss. Third, the price itself is useful information. Even if you never trade a cent, a prediction market tells you what thousands of people genuinely expect to happen, which can help everyone from politicians to

How to get started

Open the app and head to the new Predictions section. You'll find markets on politics, sport, crypto, culture: pretty much anything with an outcome and a date. Browse until you find a question where you think the crowd has it wrong, decide how confident you are, and take a position. Start small while you get a feel for how prices move, first.

Ready?

The world's largest prediction market now lives where your crypto does. Explore the markets, watch the odds move in real time, and - if you're feeling confident about a certain match this month - well, you know what to do.

Important Note:

This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to substitute for obtaining accounting, tax or financial advice from a professional advisor. The purchase of crypto entails risk. The value of crypto can fluctuate and capital involved in a crypto transaction is subject to market volatility and loss. Digital currencies are not bank deposits, are not legal tender, and are not backed by the government. Blockchain.com's products and services are not subject to any governmental or government-backed deposit protection schemes. Legislative and regulatory changes or actions in any jurisdiction in which Blockchain.com's customers are located may adversely affect the use, transfer, exchange, and value of digital currencies.