“Golden Age of Capital”

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Good Morning,

ECB hiked rates, Polymarket named its first CFO, DeepSeek dealt another blow to OpenAI, bond markets are getting cooked, Texas is already winning primary market listings from NYSE, and an Apollo executive is seeing a 'golden age of capital' as firms spend on capex.

Today's letter is brought to you by F2, the agentic operating system for private markets. F2 runs the best models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google inside a system built for credit work. See for yourself. Book a demo.

Before we dive in, I wanted to take a short moment to pause and honor the lives lost in New York City 25 years ago. For however it impacted each of us, let us never forget

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks sid yesterday as a hot wholesale inflation data reading and surging oil prices sent yields soaring

• The global bond sell-off reignited

  • US 30Y yield jumped 8 bps to 5.37% to the highest since 2004

  • US 10Y yield surged to its highest since October 2023 to near 5%

  • US 2Y rose to 4.58% for the first time since 2024

  • Munis yields soared 15 bps, with long-dated yields hitting the highest since 2011

  • US-China 10Y spread widened to a record 317 bps

• WTI rose past $100 / bbl

Earnings

• Oracle beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as booming cloud infrastructure demand dampened fears of its cash burn (CNBC)

• Adobe issued a Q3 beat-and-raise as its focus on 'freemium' AI offerings led to MAU hitting 1B (WSJ)

• Macy's issued a Q2 beat-and-raise as its turnaround begins to take hold (CNBC)

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Odds of a Fed rate hike next week surged after a hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation reading

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• PPI inflation rose 4.5% YoY (CNBC)

• ECB hiked rates to 2.5% (CNBC)

• Saudi tells OPEC that output slumped again to the lowest since 1990 (BBG)

• Bessent's upsized buybacks get hit by bond market reality (BBG)

• Druck says US borrowing costs still 'little low' despite yields surging (FT)

• Texas Stock Exchange captures first primary market listings from NYSE (RT)

• Apollo sees 'golden age of capital' as firms spend (BBG)

• LPs push megafunds for details on AI infrastructure investments (BBG)

• Bank of Korea warns of destabilizing impact of high-risk AI trades (WSJ)

• OpenAI launched ChatGPT for financial services industry (RT)

• DeepSeek's low-cost model deals a fresh blow to OpenAI (BBG)

• EU says prediction markets are 'rife with insider trading' (FT)

• Polymarket named Warren Jenson as its first CFO (WSJ)

• Visa, Mastercard and Ant team up on AI agent trust framework (RT)

• British man admits to inventing fake takeover bid for Canadian oil explorer (FT)

• Latham & Watkins buys Nvidia servers to set up in-house AI systems (FT)

A Message from F2

Every lender has the same models now. The harness decides how quickly you can arrive at a defensible IC decision.

Top frontier models are available to every firm, so the models alone no longer separate one lender from another. Underwriting quality depends on the system running them, and F2 built that system for credit:

• Model-agnostic: each task runs on whichever model handles it best, and new models are incorporated as they are released

• Excel-native engine: F2 builds and evaluates real formulas in your models

• Deep research: reads a full data room and carries the analysis end to end

• Institutional Knowledge: every output grounded in your firm's own deal history

22,532 deals underwritten on F2 this year.

Any firm can rent frontier models. The harness is what makes their work hold up at IC.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Saudi's PIF is considering combining Electronic Arts with Savvy Games to create one of the world's biggest gaming firms worth over $75B

• Italian lender Intesa Sanpaolo approved the issuance of new shares to finance its $41.2B takeover bid for peer BMPS

• US is investigating Nvidia's $20B licensing deal with AI chip startup Groq

• Centerbridge-backed real estate lender Aareal Bank is considering a bid for Cerberus-backed Hamburg Commercial Bank, which is seeking over $3.8B

• Activist Barington Capital took another stake in $3.5B-listed retailer Bath & Body Works and is pushing for a sale

• Owner Clearlake Capital is nearing a deal to acquire Billionaire financiers Mark Walter and Todd Boehly's stakes in UK soccer club Chelsea FC for well over $3.5B

• Vauban Infrastructure Partners emerged as the lead bidder for EQT-backed GlobalConnect's fiber business in Sweden, which could fetch over $2.3B

• Southeast Asia biggest ride-hailing group Grab Holdings is in talks to buy a majority stake in Singapore-based BNPL platform Atome Financial from Advance Intelligence Group at an over $2B valuation

• Online vehicle auctioneer Copart agreed to acquire car digital marketplace ACV Auctions for $1.9B cash at a 45% premium

• Italian app investor Bending Spoons agreed to acquire workplace-collaboration platform Miro in a $1.8B cash deal, including cash

• Abu Dhabi SWF Mubadala backed China's biggest coffee chain Luckin Coffee following a $1B deal with PE owner Centurium Capital

• ‌Constellation Energy will acquire a Rhode Island gas-fired power plant from Shell for $715M

• Australia's Macquarie is in advanced talks to acquire energy infrastructure services provider SI Solutions from MidOcean Partners for $600M, including debt

• Rob Arnott, the founder of smart-beta pioneer Research Affiliates, sold RAFI Indices to TMX Group for $490M and will use the remaining $30B investment manager Syzygy to push deeper into active investing

• Hong Kong-based luxury goods dealer New Sparkle Roll International is considering selling its 10% stake in $225M-listed Danish audio brand Bang & Olufsen A/S, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Asian investment firm Boyu Capital agreed to acquire Xiamen Aircraft Leasing

• UK sports-focused consumer brand THG is attracting bid interest for some of its non-core non-sports nutrition brands, which could sell of over $150M

• US-backed tin company Nathan Trotter agreed to buy 100% of the metal concentrates produced by Australian mining firm Huntore in a multiyear offtake agreement financed by STG Metals

• Brazilian ID verification company Unico agreed to acquire Argentine rival Valida

• Saudi Aramco is considering a sale of its specialty chemicals business Arlanxeo

• Shell will acquire 100% ​equity in Hunlock Creek Generating, which owns 169 ​MW of natural gas-fired generation capacity in Pennsylvania

• Apollo Sports Capital is interested in investing in an NFL team

• Africa's most valuable bank FirstRand is pushing to wrap up the sale of its Aldermore Group UK unit by year end.

• France's TotalEnergies signed agreements to ​buy a 40% operated interest ​in two new exploration blocks in ⁠Angola

VC

• Musk's The Boring Company raised a $3B Series D at a $23B valuation led by UAE

• Chip startup Positron AI raised $875M at a $5B valuation

• AMD-backed South Korean AI startup Upstage is considering a pre-IPO funding round

• Motive, the AI platform for physical operations, raised $1.3B in growth financing from General Catalyst's Customer Value Fund

• Positron, an AI inference hardware company, raised a $875M Series C at a $5B post-money valuation co-led by NEA, Atreides Management, Valor Equity Partners, Andra Capital, SemiAnalysis Capital, and Jim Clark

• Mach Industries, a defense tech startup, raised a $600M Series C extension at a $3.7B valuation from Ribbit Capital, Infinite Capital, Bedrock Capital, and Sequoia

• UniPat AI, a startup focused on training and benchmarking AI models in real-world scenarios, raised a $300M funding round at a $2.5B valuation led by Alibaba

• TAR, an off-grid power systems provider for AI data centers, raised a $120M Series A at a $1B post-money valuation led by Spark Capital

• Crypto exchange Kraken raised $100M from Nasdaq to fund ‌development tokenized equities trading

• Maven Robotics, an industrial robotics startup, raised $100M from RoboStrategy, LocalGlobe, Vine Ventures, and XTX Markets Ventures

• Highstock, a startup addressing brands' unproductive inventory, raised a $30M Series A led by a16z

• Luminary, an AI-native wealth transfer and administration platform, raised a $22M Series A led by Ten Coves Capital

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Silver Lake and Intel-backed chipmaker Altera is preparing to file confidentially for a potential $2B IPO

• Amman Mineral Internasional, one of Indonesia's biggest copper and gold producers, picked banks for a $1B Hong Kong listing

• THL-owned semiconductor automation company Brooks Automation confidentially filed for an IPO

• Chinese robotics startup Galaxea AI is facing regulatory uncertainty over its Hong Kong IPO plans

Debt

• Pharma CDMO Catalent sold $4.7B of debt for a refinancing

• Indian telecom Vodafone Idea raised $3.5B from lenders led by State Bank of India to rebuild its business

• Vantage Data Centers is in talks to raise $2B in debt from PIMCO and PGIM

• Blackstone and CPPIB-owned UK leisure-park operator Merlin Entertainments is seeking a $890M loan backed by the London Eye, Shrek's Adventure! London, and a portfolio of other UK attractions

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• The largest creditors to French real estate services provider Emeria signed NDAs barring them from trading the firm's debt as they step up talks with owners over $410M cash injection

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Coinbase CEO says clearer US crypto rules are coming with or without Senate approval

• Coinbase co-founder emerges as surprise contender for Trump's Venezuela's oil deals after high-agency Venezuela trip

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• AI for Finance - Online Program. Starts November 9: Earn your certificate from Columbia Business School Exec Ed. Learn to use AI in business decisions without losing your judgment. Live office hours + an MBA-level network. Get the syllabus.

• CNBC published a short but interesting profile on how one hedge fund manager built his firm to be powered entirely by AI agents.

• Mentioned in our Crypto Sum Snapshot above but check out WSJ's profile on Fred Ehrsam, the co-founder of Coinbase who lived in a hotel for months to pursue Venezuela oil deals despite zero O&G experience.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.