11/07/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/07/2025 14:32
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the financial statements and the notes thereto of the United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") included elsewhere in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Forward-Looking Information
This quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including this "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations," contains "forward-looking statements" which generally relate to future events or future performance. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as "may," "will," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "predict," "potential" or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All statements (other than statements of historical fact) included in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q that address activities, events or developments that will or may occur in the future, including such matters as changes in inflation in the United States, movements in the stock market, movements in U.S. and foreign currencies, and market volatility in the commodities markets and futures markets and indexes that track such movements, the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, USO's operations, USCF's plans and references to USO's future success and other similar matters, are forward-looking statements. These statements are only predictions. Actual events or results may differ materially. These statements are based upon certain assumptions and analyses USCF has made based on its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors appropriate in the circumstances. Whether or not actual results and developments will conform to USCF's expectations and predictions, however, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including the special considerations discussed in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, general economic, market and business conditions, changes in laws or regulations, including those concerning taxes, made by governmental authorities or regulatory bodies, and other world economic and political developments. Consequently, all the forward-looking statements made in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q are qualified by these cautionary statements, and there can be no assurance that the actual results or developments USCF anticipates will be realized or, even if substantially realized, that they will result in the expected consequences to, or have the expected effects on, USO's operations or the value of its shares.
USO has based the forward-looking statements included in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q on information available to it on the date of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, and USO assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Although USO undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, investors are advised to consult any additional disclosures that USO may make directly to them or through reports that USO files in the future with the SEC, including annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.
Introduction
USO, a Delaware limited partnership, is a commodity pool that issues shares that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca. The investment objective of USO is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares' per share NAV to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the price of the futures contract for light, sweet crude oil traded on the NYMEX that is the near month contract to expire and changes, over a ten-day period, into the NYMEX futures contract that is the next month to expire (the "Benchmark Oil Futures Contract"), plus interest earned on USO's collateral holdings, less USO's expenses. The change from the near month contract to the next month contract occurs at the beginning of each month and will be approximately proportional, relative to total net assets, over each day of the ten-day roll period. "Near month contract" means the next contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire. "Next month contract" means the first contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire after the near month contract. USO seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing so that the average daily percentage change in USO's NAV for any period of 30 successive valuation days will be within plus/minus ten percent (10%) of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period. As a result, investors should be aware that USO would meet its investment objective even if there are significant deviations between changes in its daily NAV and changes in the daily price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract provided that the average daily percentage change in USO's NAV over 30 successive valuation days is within plus/minus ten percent (10%) of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.
USO invests primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, "Oil Futures Contracts") and to a lesser extent, in order to comply with regulatory requirements, risk mitigation measures (including those that may be taken by USO, USO's FCMs, counterparties or other market participants), liquidity requirements, or in view of market conditions, other oil-related investments such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward contracts for oil, cleared swap contracts and OTC swaps that are based on the price of oil, other petroleum-based fuels, Oil Futures Contracts and indices based on the foregoing (collectively, "Other Oil-Related Investments"). For convenience and unless otherwise specified, Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments collectively are referred to as "Oil Interests" in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
USO's investment objective is not for its NAV or market price of shares to equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of light, sweet crude oil or any particular futures contract based on light, sweet crude oil, nor is USO's investment objective for the percentage change in its NAV to reflect the percentage change of the price of any particular futures contract as measured over a time period greater than one day. The general partner of USO, United States Commodity Funds, LLC ("USCF"), believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments.
In addition, USCF believes that market arbitrage opportunities will cause daily changes in USO's share price on the NYSE Arca on a percentage basis to closely track daily changes in USO's per share NAV. USCF further believes that the daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract have historically closely tracked the daily changes in spot prices of light, sweet crude oil. USCF believes that the net effect of these relationships will be that the daily changes in the price of USO's shares on the NYSE Arca on a percentage basis will closely track the daily changes in the spot price of a barrel of light, sweet crude oil on a percentage basis, plus interest earned on USO's collateral holdings, less USO's expenses.
The following chart shows, for the period ending September 30, 2025, the rolling 30-day average difference between USO's NAV and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. This is measured by subtracting the return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract from the return on USO's NAV for each of the last thirty business days, and then averaging those thirty differences. The calculation is repeated daily.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Prior to the Spring of 2020, USO achieved its investment objective by primarily investing in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and Oil Futures Contracts for light, sweet crude oil traded on NYMEX and ICE Futures with the same maturity month as the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. In the Spring of 2020, significant market volatility occurred in the crude oil markets and the oil futures markets. Such volatility was attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, related supply chain disruptions and disputes among oil-producing countries over the potential limits on the production of crude oil, and a corresponding collapse in demand for crude oil and a lack of on-land storage for crude oil. Certain circumstances, including the market conditions, regulatory requirements, and risk mitigation measures imposed by its FCMs, resulting from such volatility caused, as discussed below, USO to invest in Oil Futures Contracts other than the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and to invest in Other Oil-Related Investments, such as swap transactions based on the price of oil.
Accordingly, USO invested in other permitted Oil Futures Contracts with expirations in later months than the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. USO also invested in other permitted investments, including Other Oil-Related Investments, including OTC swaps. In addition, during the Spring of 2020, USO had to rebalance and adjust the types of holdings in its portfolio more frequently than it had in the past.
Beginning with the monthly roll in September 2023 and ending with the monthly roll in January 2024, USO transitioned its investment portfolio to primarily invest in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, consistent with USO's investment strategy prior to the Spring of 2020. However, USO has had, and will continue to have, the ability to invest in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and Other Oil-Related Investments, such as OTC swaps, and USO may make such investments if market conditions (including but not limited to those allowing USO to obtain greater liquidity (i.e., liquidity requirements) or to execute transactions with more favorable pricing), regulatory requirements (including, but not limited to, exchange accountability levels and position limits imposed by NYMEX as well as statutory or regulatory limits), risk mitigation measures (including those that may be taken by USO, USO's FCMs, counterparties or other market participants), liquidity requirements, or other factors require USO to do so in order to meet its investment objective. USO may invest in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and/or Other Oil-Related Investments, as a result of, or in response to, any of the foregoing factors. In addition, USO may need to hold significant portions of its portfolio in cash beyond what it has historically held for reasons including (but not limited to) the need to address changes in market conditions, regulatory requirements or risk mitigation measures or the need to satisfy potential margin requirements.
Investments in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and Other Oil-Related Investments could result in wider deviations between the performance of USO's investments and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract than if USO's investments primarily consisted of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and changes in USO's share price may not be able to track changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract within as narrow a percentage change difference for any period of 30 successive valuation days as it would if USO's investments primarily consisted of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
Although permitted to do so under its LP Agreement, USO has not leveraged, and does not intend to leverage, its assets through borrowings or otherwise, and USO makes its investments accordingly. Consistent with the foregoing, USO's investments will take into account the need for USO to maintain adequate liquidity to meet its margin and collateral requirements and to avoid, to the extent reasonably possible, USO becoming leveraged. If market conditions require it, these risk reduction procedures, including changes to USO's investments, may occur on short notice.
Regulatory Disclosure
The regulation of commodity interest trading in the United States and other countries is an evolving area of the law. Below are certain key regulatory requirements that are, or may be, relevant to USO. The various statements made in this summary are subject to modification by legislative action and changes in the rules and regulations of the SEC, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"), CFTC, NFA, the futures exchanges, clearing organizations and other regulatory bodies. Pending final resolution of all applicable regulatory requirements, some examples of how new rules and regulations could impact USO are discussed in "Item 1. Business" in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Exchange Accountability Levels, Position Limits and Price Fluctuation Limits. Designated contract markets ("DCMs"), such as the NYMEX and ICE Futures, have established accountability levels and position limits on the maximum net long or net short futures contracts in commodity interests that any person or group of persons under common trading control (other than as a hedge, which an investment by USO is not) may hold, own or control. These levels and position limits apply to the futures contracts that USO invests in to meet its investment objective. In addition to accountability levels and position limits, the NYMEX and ICE Futures may also set daily price fluctuation limits on futures contracts. The daily price fluctuation limit establishes the maximum amount that the price of a futures contract may vary either up or down from the previous day's settlement price. Once the daily price fluctuation limit has been reached in a particular futures contract, no trades may be made at a price beyond that limit.
The accountability levels for the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and other Oil Futures Contracts traded on U.S.-based futures exchanges, such as the NYMEX, are not a fixed ceiling, but rather a threshold above which the NYMEX may exercise greater scrutiny and control over an investor's positions. The current accountability level for investments for any one month in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract is 10,000 contracts. In addition, the NYMEX imposes an accountability level for all months of 20,000 net futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil. In addition, the ICE Futures maintains the same accountability levels, position limits and monitoring authority for its futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil contract as the NYMEX. If USO and the Related Public Funds exceed these accountability levels for investments in the futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, the NYMEX and ICE Futures will monitor such exposure and may ask for further information on USO's and the Related Public Funds' activities including the total size of all positions, investment and trading strategy, and the extent of liquidity resources of USO and the Related Public Funds. If deemed necessary by the NYMEX and/or ICE Futures, USO could be required to reduce its aggregate position in Crude Oil Futures CL contracts back to the 10,000 single month and/or 20,000 all month accountability level. As of September 30, 2025, USO held 11,962 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures CL contracts and did not hold any ICE WTI Crude Oil Futures contracts. USO exceeded accountability levels of the NYMEX during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, including when it held a maximum of 16,232 Crude Oil Futures CL contracts on the NYMEX, exceeding the "any" month limit. No action was taken by the NYMEX and USO did not have to reduce the number of positions held.
Position limits differ from accountability levels in that they represent fixed limits on the maximum number of futures contracts that any person may hold and cannot allow such limits to be exceeded without express CFTC authority to do so. In addition to accountability levels and position limits that may apply at any time, the NYMEX and ICE Futures impose position limits on contracts held in the last few days of trading in the near month contract to expire. Investors should note that the foregoing accountability levels and position limits are subject to change, which in turn could change the amount and type of permitted investments in which USO invests. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USO did not exceed any position limits imposed by the NYMEX and ICE Futures. The foregoing accountability levels and position limits are subject to change. Due to evolving market conditions, remaining within relevant accountability levels and position limits, and, any additional or different risk mitigation measures taken by USO's FCMs in the future with respect to USO acquiring additional Oil Futures contracts, USO has invested and intends to invest in other permitted investments, beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
Federal Position Limits
Part 150 of the CFTC's regulations (the "Position Limits Rule") establishes federal position limits for 25 core referenced futures contracts (comprised of agricultural, energy and metals futures contracts), futures and options linked to the core referenced futures contracts, and swaps that are economically equivalent to the core referenced futures contracts that all market participants must comply with, with certain exemptions. The Benchmark Oil Futures Contract is subject to position limits under the Position Limits Rule, and USO's trading does not qualify for an exemption therefrom. Accordingly, the Position Limits Rule could inhibit USO's ability to invest in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and thereby could negatively impact the ability of USO to meet its investment objective.
Position limits may potentially cause a tracking error between the price of USO's shares and the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. This may in turn prevent investors from being able to effectively use USO as a way to hedge against crude oil related losses or as a way to indirectly invest in crude oil.
USO has not limited the size of its offering and intends to utilize substantially all of its proceeds to purchase Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments to the extent possible. If USO encounters accountability levels, position limits (including those set by the Position Limits Rule), or price fluctuation limits for Oil Futures Contracts on the NYMEX or ICE Futures, it may then, if permitted under applicable regulatory requirements, purchase Oil Futures Contracts on other exchanges that trade listed crude oil futures or enter into swaps or other permitted investments to meet its investment objective. In addition, if USO exceeds accountability levels on either the NYMEX or ICE Futures and is required by such exchanges to reduce its holdings, such reduction could potentially cause a tracking error between the price of USO's shares and the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
Margin for OTC Swaps
Rules put in place by U.S. federal banking regulators, the CFTC and the SEC require the daily exchange of variation margin and initial margin for swaps between swap dealers, major swap participants, security-based swap dealers, and major security-based swap participants ("Swap Entities") and swaps between Swap Entities and their counterparties that are "financial end-users" (such rules, the "Margin Rules"). The Margin Rules require Swap Entities to exchange variation margin with all of their counterparties who are financial end-users. The minimum variation margin amount is the daily mark-to-market change in the value of the swap, taking into account the
amount of variation margin previously posted or collected. Swap Entities are required to exchange initial margin with their financial end-users who have "material swaps exposure" (i.e., an average daily aggregate notional of $8 billion or more in non-cleared swaps calculated in accordance with the Margin Rules). The Margin Rules specify the types of collateral that may be posted or collected as initial margin or variation margin (generally cash, certain government, government-sponsored enterprise securities, certain liquid debt, certain equity securities, certain eligible publicly traded debt, and gold) and sets forth haircuts for certain collateral asset classes.
USO is not a Swap Entity under the Margin Rules, but it is a financial end-user. Accordingly, USO will be subject to the variation margin requirements of the Margin Rules for any swaps that it enters into. However, USO does not have material swaps exposure under the Margin Rules and, accordingly, USO will not be subject to the initial margin requirements of the Margin Rules.
Mandatory Trading and Clearing of Swaps
CFTC regulations require that certain swap transactions be executed on organized exchanges or "swap execution facilities" and cleared through regulated clearing organizations ("derivative clearing organizations" ("DCOs")), if the CFTC mandates the central clearing of a particular class of swap and such swap is "made available to trade" on a swap execution facility. Currently, swap dealers, major swap participants, commodity pools, certain private funds and entities predominantly engaged in activities that are financial in nature are required to execute on a swap execution facility, and clear, certain interest rate swaps and index-based credit default swaps. As a result, if USO enters into an interest rate or index-based credit default swap that is subject to these requirements, such swap will be required to be executed on a swap execution facility and centrally cleared. Mandatory clearing and "made available to trade" determinations with respect to additional types of swaps may be issued in the future, and, when finalized, could require USO to electronically execute and centrally clear certain OTC instruments presently entered into and settled on a bi-lateral basis. If a swap is required to be cleared, initial and variation margin requirements are set by the relevant clearing organization, subject to certain regulatory requirements and guidelines. Additional margin may be required and held by USO's FCMs.
Other Requirements for Swaps
In addition to the margin requirements described above, swaps that are not required to be cleared and executed on a SEF but that are executed bilaterally are also subject to various requirements pursuant to CFTC regulations, including, among other things, reporting and recordkeeping requirements and, depending on the status of the counterparties, trading documentation requirements and dispute resolution requirements.
Derivatives Regulations in Non-U.S. Jurisdictions
In addition to U.S. laws and regulations, USO may be subject to non-U.S. derivatives laws and regulations if it engages in futures and/or swap transactions with non-U.S. persons. For example, USO may be impacted by European laws and regulations to the extent that it engages in futures transactions on European exchanges or derivatives transactions with European entities. Other jurisdictions impose requirements applicable to futures and derivatives that are similar to those imposed by the U.S., including position limits, margin, clearing and trade execution requirements.
The CFTC is generally prohibited by statute from regulating trading on non-U.S. futures exchanges and markets. The CFTC, however, has adopted regulations relating to the marketing of non-U.S. futures contracts in the United States. These regulations permit certain contracts on non-U.S. exchanges to be offered and sold in the United States.
Natural disasters, public health disruptions (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), and international armed conflicts could impact the price of commodities and/or the value, pricing and liquidity of USO's investments or assets which, in turn, could cause the loss of your investment in USO.
Natural or environmental disasters, such as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis and other severe weather-related phenomena generally, and widespread disease, including public health disruptions, pandemics and epidemics (for example, the COVID-19 pandemic), can be highly disruptive to economies and markets. Such events can, directly or indirectly, negatively impact, and/or cause volatility in, the price of commodities such as crude oil and the value, pricing, and liquidity of the investments or other assets held by USO.
Geopolitical conflict, including war and armed conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and the expansion of such conflicts in surrounding areas), sanctions, the introduction of or changes in tariffs or trade barriers, global or local recessions,
and acts of terrorism, can also, directly or indirectly, negatively impact, and/or cause volatility in, the price of commodities such as crude oil and the value, pricing, and liquidity of the investments or other assets held by USO. A negative impact on, or volatility in, the price of crude oil or the value, pricing and liquidity of USO's investments or other assets resulting from the occurrence of any of the aforementioned events, or similar events, could cause you to lose all, or substantially all, of your investment in USO.
USO may be subject to interest rate risk, which may prevent USO from investing fully at prevailing rates until any current investments in Treasuries mature in order to avoid selling those investments at a loss.
Interest rate risk is the risk that fixed income securities and other investments in USO's portfolio will fluctuate in value because of a change in interest rates. Interest rate changes can be sudden and unpredictable, and USO may lose money because of movements in interest rates. When interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities typically falls. In a rising interest rate environment, USO may not be able to fully invest at prevailing rates until any current investments in Treasuries mature in order to avoid selling those investments at a loss. Interest rate risk is generally lower for shorter term investments and higher for longer term investments. In addition, in rising interest rate environments, it is possible that the Treasuries held by USO will decline in value. When interest rates fall, USO may be required to reinvest the proceeds from the sale, redemption or early prepayment of a Treasury Bill or money market security at a lower interest rate.
As inflation increases, the present value of USO's assets may decline.
Inflation is a general increase in the overall price level of goods and services in the economy. The United States Federal Reserve has a stated goal of maintaining a two percent increase in inflation over the long run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States experienced inflation above the Federal Reserve's stated two percent goal. Other world economies similarly experienced elevated inflation rates. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates and successfully reduced inflation so that it is close to the stated two percent goal. As a result, in 2024, the Federal Reserve began reducing interest rates. However, the rate of inflation in the United States is still above the stated two percent goal. Inflation has the effect of eroding the value of cash or bonds. In a high inflation environment, the value of USO's cash and Treasury investments may decline.
USO may potentially lose money by investing in government money market funds.
USO invests in government money market funds. Although such government money market funds seek to preserve the value of an investment at $1.00 per share, there is no guarantee that they will be able to do so and USO may lose money by investing in a government money market fund. An investment in a government money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the "FDIC") or any other government agency. The share price of a government money market fund can fall below the $1.00 share price. USO cannot rely on or expect a government money market fund's adviser or its affiliates to enter into support agreements or take other actions to maintain the government money market fund's $1.00 share price. The credit quality of a government money market fund's holdings can change rapidly in certain markets, and the default of a single holding could have an adverse impact on the government money market fund's share price. Due to fluctuations in interest rates, the market value of securities held by a government money market fund may vary. A government money market fund's share price can also be negatively affected during periods of high redemption pressures and/or illiquid markets.
Price Movements
Crude oil futures prices were volatile during the nine months ended September 30, 2025. The price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract started the period at $71.72 per barrel. The high of the period was on January 15, 2025 when the price reached $78.84 per barrel. The low of the period was on May 5, 2025 when the price dropped to $57.05 per barrel. The period ended with the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract at $62.37 per barrel, a decrease of approximately (13.04)% over the period. USO's per share NAV began the period at $75.45 and ended the period at $73.58 on September 30, 2025, a decrease of approximately (2.48)% over the period. The Benchmark Oil Futures Contract prices listed above began with the February 2025 contracts and ended with the November 2025 contracts. The decrease of approximately (13.04)% on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract listed above is a hypothetical return only and would not actually be realized by an investor holding Oil Futures Contracts. An investment in Oil Futures Contracts would need to be rolled forward during the time period described in order to simulate such a result. Furthermore, the change in the nominal price of these differing Oil Futures Contracts, measured from the start of the year to the end of the year, does not represent the actual benchmark results that USO seeks to track, which are more fully described below in the section titled "Tracking USO's Benchmark."
During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the crude oil futures market experienced states of mild contango. On days when the market was in contango the price of the near month crude Oil Futures Contract was lower than the price of the next month crude Oil Futures Contract, or contracts further away from expiration. On days when the market was in backwardation, the price of the near month crude Oil Futures Contract was higher than the price of the next month crude Oil Futures Contract or contracts further away from expiration. For a discussion of the impact of backwardation and contango on total returns, see "Term Structure of Crude Oil Prices and the Impact on Total Returns" below.
Valuation of Oil Futures Contracts and the Computation of the Per Share NAV
The per share NAV of USO's shares is calculated once each NYSE Arca trading day. The per share NAV for a particular trading day is released after 4:00 p.m. New York time. Trading during the core trading session on the NYSE Arca typically closes at 4:00 p.m. New York time. USO's Administrator uses the settlement price determined by NYMEX at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time for the Oil Futures Contracts held on the NYMEX and the settlement price determined by ICE Futures at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time for the Oil Futures Contracts held on ICE Futures, but calculates or determines the value of all other USO investments, other futures contracts, as of the earlier of the close of the NYSE Arca or 4:00 p.m. New York time.
Results of Operations and the Crude Oil Market
Results of Operations.
As of September 30, 2025, USO had 12,023,603 shares outstanding. On August 29, 2023, the SEC declared effective a registration statement filed by USO that registered an unlimited number of shares. As a result, USO has an unlimited number of shares that can be issued in the form of Creation Baskets. More shares may have been issued by USO than are outstanding due to the redemption of shares.
On April 28, 2020, after the close of trading on the NYSE Arca, USO effected a 1-for-8 reverse share split and post-split shares of USO began trading on April 29, 2020. As a result of the reverse share split, every eight pre-split shares of USO were automatically exchanged for one post-split share. Immediately prior to the reverse split, there were 1,482,900,000 shares of USO issued and outstanding, representing a per share NAV of $2.04. Immediately after the effect of the reverse share split, the number of issued and outstanding shares of USO decreased to 185,362,500, not accounting for fractional shares, and the per share NAV increased to $16.35. In connection with the reverse share split, the CUSIP number for USO's shares changed to 91232N207. USO's ticker symbol, "USO," remained the same. The accompanying unaudited financial statements have been adjusted to reflect the effect of the reverse share split on a retroactive basis.
As of September 30, 2025, USO had the following Authorized Participants: ABN AMRO Clearing USA LLC, BNP Paribas Securities Corp., Citadel Securities LLC, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs & Company, Jane Street Capital LLC, JP Morgan Securities LLC, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Company Inc., RBC Capital Markets LLC, SG Americas Securities LLC, UBS Securities LLC and Virtu Americas LLC.
For the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 Compared to the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nine months |
Nine months |
|||||
|
|
|
ended |
|
ended |
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||
|
|
|
September 30, 2025 |
|
September 30, 2024 |
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||
|
Average daily total net assets |
|
$ |
995,903,360 |
|
$ |
1,338,957,900 |
|
|
Dividend and interest income earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents |
|
$ |
29,843,893 |
|
$ |
48,992,199 |
|
|
Annualized yield based on average daily total net assets |
|
4.01 |
% |
4.89 |
% |
||
|
Management fee |
|
$ |
3,351,100 |
|
$ |
4,506,030 |
|
|
Total fees and other expenses excluding management fees |
|
$ |
2,981,740 |
|
$ |
3,760,997 |
|
|
Total commissions accrued to brokers |
|
$ |
1,133,961 |
|
$ |
1,110,080 |
|
|
Total commissions as annualized percentage of average total net assets |
|
|
0.15 |
% |
|
0.11 |
% |
Portfolio Expenses. USO's expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees, registration fees, the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and expenses relating to tax accounting and reporting requirements. The management fee that USO pays to USCF is calculated as a percentage of the total net assets of USO. The fee is accrued daily and paid monthly.
Average interest rates earned on short-term investments held by USO, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were lower during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2024. As a result, the amount of income earned by USO as a percentage of average daily total net assets was lower during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2024. To the degree that the aggregate yield is lower, the net expense ratio, inclusive of income, will be higher.
The decrease in total fees and other expenses excluding management fees for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was due primarily to a decrease in tax reporting and professional fees.
The increase in total commissions accrued to brokers for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was due primarily to a higher number of Oil Futures Contracts being held and traded.
For the Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 Compared to the Three Months Ended September 30, 2024
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Three months |
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Three months |
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ended |
|
ended |
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September 30, 2025 |
September 30, 2024 |
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||||
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Average daily total net assets |
|
$ |
977,565,617 |
|
$ |
1,267,096,635 |
|
|
Dividend and interest income earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents |
|
$ |
9,834,523 |
|
$ |
15,834,884 |
|
|
Annualized yield based on average daily total net assets |
|
3.99 |
% |
4.97 |
% |
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Management fee |
|
$ |
1,108,653 |
|
$ |
1,431,839 |
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|
Total fees and other expenses excluding management fees |
|
$ |
988,846 |
|
$ |
1,243,350 |
|
|
Total commissions accrued to brokers |
|
$ |
352,575 |
|
$ |
368,938 |
|
|
Total commissions as annualized percentage of average total net assets |
|
0.14 |
% |
0.12 |
% |
||
Portfolio Expenses. USO's expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees, registration fees, the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and expenses relating to tax accounting and reporting requirements. The management fee that USO pays to USCF is calculated as a percentage of the total net assets of USO. The fee is accrued daily and paid monthly.
Average interest rates earned on short-term investments held by USO, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were lower during the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended September 30, 2024. As a result, the amount of income earned by USO as a percentage of average daily total net assets was lower during the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended September 30, 2024. To the degree that the aggregate yield is lower, the net expense ratio, inclusive of income, will be higher.
The decrease in total fees and other expenses excluding management fees for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended September 30, 2024, was due primarily to a decrease in tax reporting and professional fees.
The decrease in total commissions accrued to brokers for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended September 30, 2024, was due primarily to a lower number of Oil Futures Contracts being held and traded.
Tracking USO's Benchmark
USCF seeks to manage USO's portfolio such that changes in its average daily per share NAV, on a percentage basis, closely track the daily changes in the average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, also on a percentage basis. Specifically, USCF seeks to manage the portfolio such that over any rolling period of 30-valuation days, the average daily change in USO's per share NAV is within a range of 90% to 110% (0.9 to 1.1) of the average daily change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. As an example, if the average daily movement of the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for a particular 30-valuation day time period was 0.50% per day, USCF would attempt to manage the portfolio such that the average daily movement of the per share NAV during that same time period fell between 0.45% and 0.55% (i.e., between 0.9 and 1.1 of the benchmark's results). USO's portfolio management goals do not include trying to make the nominal price of USO's per share NAV equal to the nominal price of the current Benchmark Oil Futures Contract or the spot price for light, sweet crude oil. USCF believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments.
For the 30-valuation days ended September 30, 2025, the average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.015%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of USO over the same time period was 0.027%. The average daily difference was 0.012% (or 1.2 basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%), meaning that over this time period USO's NAV performed within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.
Since the commencement of the offering of USO's shares to the public on April 10, 2006 to September 30, 2025, the average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.002%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of USO over the same time period was (0.009)%. The average daily difference was (0.011)% (or (1.1) basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%), meaning that over this time period USO's NAV performed within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.
The following two charts demonstrate the correlation between the changes in USO's NAV and the changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. The first chart below shows the daily movement of USO's per share NAV versus the daily movement of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for the 30 valuation day period ended September 30, 2025. The second chart below shows the monthly total returns of USO as compared to the monthly value of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for the five years ended September 30, 2025.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An alternative tracking measurement of the return performance of USO versus the return of its Benchmark Oil Futures Contract can be calculated by comparing the actual return of USO, measured by changes in its per share NAV, versus the expected changes in its per share NAV under the assumption that USO's returns had been exactly the same as the daily changes in its Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the actual total return of USO as measured by changes in its per share NAV was (2.48)%. This is based on an initial per share NAV of $75.45 as of December 31, 2024 and an ending per share NAV as of September 30, 2025 of $73.58. During this time period, USO made no distributions to its shareholders. However, if USO's daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, USO would have had an estimated per share NAV of $71.34 as of September 30, 2025, for a total return over the relevant time period of (5.44)%. The difference between the actual per share NAV total return of USO of (2.48)% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract of (5.44)% was a difference over the time period of 2.96%, which is to say that USO's actual total return outperformed its benchmark by that percentage. USO incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses. The impact of these expenses, offset by interest and dividend income, and net of positive or negative execution, and net the difference in returns between USO's current holdings and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract tend to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly higher than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
By comparison, for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the actual total return of USO as measured by changes in its per share NAV was 4.41%. This is based on an initial per share NAV of $66.91 as of December 31, 2023 and an ending per share NAV as of September 30, 2024 of $69.86. During this time period, USO made no distributions to its shareholders. However, if USO's daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, USO would have had an estimated per share NAV of $67.81 as of September 30, 2024, for a total return over the relevant time period of 1.35%. The difference between the actual per share NAV total return of USO of 4.41% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract of 1.35% was a difference over the time period of 3.06%, which is to say that USO's actual total return outperformed its benchmark by that percentage. USO incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses. The impact of these expenses, offset by interest and dividend income, and net of positive or negative execution, and net the difference in returns between USO's current holdings and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract tend to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly higher or lower than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
As a result of market conditions and the regulatory response that occurred in March 2020 and thereafter, large numbers of USO shares that were purchased during a short period of time, and regulatory accountability levels and position limits on oil futures contracts that were imposed on USO, and risk mitigation measures imposed by its FCMs, USO invested in Oil Futures Contracts in months other than the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
Beginning with the monthly roll in September 2023 and ending with the monthly roll in January 2024, USO transitioned its investment portfolio to primarily invest in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, consistent with USO's investment strategy prior to the Spring of 2020. However, USO has had, and will continue to have, the ability to invest in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and Other Oil-Related Investments, such as OTC swaps, and USO may make such investments if market conditions (including but not limited to those allowing USO to obtain greater liquidity (i.e., liquidity requirements) or to execute transactions with more favorable pricing), regulatory requirements (including, but not limited to, exchange accountability levels and position limits imposed by NYMEX as well as statutory or regulatory limits), risk mitigation measures (including those that may be taken by USO, USO's FCMs, counterparties or other market participants), liquidity requirements, or other factors require USO to do so in order to meet its investment objective. USO may invest in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and/or Other Oil-Related Investments, as a result of, or in response to, any of the foregoing factors. In addition, USO may need to hold significant portions of its portfolio in cash beyond what it has historically held for reasons including (but not limited to) the need to address the changes in market conditions, regulatory requirements or risk mitigation measures or the need to satisfy potential margin requirements.
During the third quarter of 2025 the rolling 30 day average daily difference between the return of USO's NAV and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was (0.01)% or (1.0) basis points).
There are three factors that typically have impacted or are most likely to impact USO's ability to accurately track Benchmark Oil Futures Contract in addition to the foregoing.
First, USO may buy or sell its holdings in the then current Benchmark Oil Futures Contract at a price other than the settlement price of that contract on the day during which USO executes the trade. In that case, USO may pay a price that is higher or lower, than the closing settlement price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, which could cause the changes in the daily per share NAV of USO to either be higher or lower relative to the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USCF attempted to minimize the effect of these transactions by seeking to execute its purchase or sale of Oil Futures Contracts at, or as close as possible to, the end of the day settlement price. However, it may not always be possible for USO to obtain the settlement price and there is no assurance that failure to obtain the closing settlement price in the future will not adversely impact USO's attempt to track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.
Second, USO incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses. The impact of these expenses tends to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly lower than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. At the same time, USO earns dividend and interest income on its cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries. USO is not required to distribute any portion of its income to its shareholders and did not make any distributions to shareholders during the nine months ended September 30, 2025. Interest payments, and any other income, were retained within the portfolio and added to USO's NAV. When this income exceeds the level of USO's expenses for its management fee, brokerage commissions and other expenses (including ongoing registration fees, licensing fees and the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF), USO will realize a net yield that will tend to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly higher than daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. If short-term interest rates rise above these levels, the level of deviation created by the yield would increase. Conversely, if short-term interest rates were to decline, the amount of error created by the yield would decrease. When short-term yields drop to a level lower than the combined expenses of the management fee and the brokerage commissions, then the tracking error becomes a negative number and would tend to cause the daily returns of the per share NAV to underperform the daily returns of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. USCF anticipates that interest rates may continue to stagnate over the near future. It is anticipated that fees and expenses paid by USO may continue to be lower than interest earned by USO. As such, USCF anticipates that USO could possibly outperform its benchmark so long as interest earned is greater than the fees and expenses paid by USO.
Third, USO may hold Other Oil-Related Investments in its portfolio that may fail to closely track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract's total return movements. In that case, the error in tracking the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract could result in daily changes in the per share NAV of USO that are either too high, or too low, relative to the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USO held OTC swaps, which are considered Other Oil-Related Investments. If USO increases in size, and due to its obligations to comply with market conditions, regulatory limits, and risk mitigation measures imposed by its
FCMs, USO may invest in additional Other Oil-Related Investments, such as OTC swaps, which may have the effect of increasing transaction related expenses and may result in increased tracking error. OTC swaps increase transaction-related expenses due to the fact that USO must pay to the swap counterparty certain fees that USO does not have to pay for transactions executed on an exchange.
Term Structure of Crude Oil Futures Prices and the Impact on Total Returns. Several factors determine the total return from investing in futures contracts. One factor arises from "rolling" futures contracts that will expire at the end of the current month (the "near" or "front" month contract) forward each month prior to expiration. For a strategy that entails holding the near month contract, the price relationship between that futures contract and the next month futures contract will impact returns. For example, if the price of the near month futures contract is higher than the next futures month contract (a situation referred to as "backwardation"), then absent any other change, the price of a next month futures contract tends to rise in value as it becomes the near month futures contract and approaches expiration. Conversely, if the price of a near month futures contract is lower than the next month futures contract (a situation referred to as "contango"), then absent any other change, the price of a next month futures contract tends to decline in value as it becomes the near month futures contract and approaches expiration.
As an example, assume that the price of crude oil for immediate delivery, is $50 per barrel, and the value of a position in the near month futures contract is also $50. Over time, the price of crude oil will fluctuate based on a number of market factors, including demand for oil relative to supply. The value of the near month futures contract will likewise fluctuate in reaction to a number of market factors. If an investor seeks to maintain a position in a near month futures contract and not take delivery of physical barrels of crude oil, the investor must sell the current near month futures contract as it approaches expiration and invest in the next month futures contract. In order to continue holding a position in the current near month futures contract, this "roll" forward of the futures contract must be executed every month.
Contango and backwardation are natural market forces that have impacted the total return on an investment in USO's shares during the past year relative to a hypothetical direct investment in crude oil. In the future, it is likely that the relationship between the market price of USO's shares and changes in the spot prices of light, sweet crude oil will continue to be impacted by contango and backwardation. It is important to note that this comparison ignores the potential costs associated with physically owning and storing crude oil, which could be substantial.
If the futures market is in backwardation, e.g., when the price of the near month futures contract is higher than the price of the next month futures contract, the investor would buy a next month futures contract for a lower price than the current near month futures contract. Assuming the price of the next month futures contract was $49 per barrel, or 2% cheaper than the $50 near month futures contract, then, hypothetically, and assuming no other changes (e.g., to either prevailing crude oil prices or the price relationship between the spot price, the near month contract and the next month contract, and, ignoring the impact of commission costs and the income earned on cash and/or cash equivalents), the value of the $49 next month futures contract would rise to $50 as it approaches expiration. In this example, the value of an investment in the next month futures contract would tend to outperform the spot price of crude oil. As a result, it would be possible for the new near month futures contract to rise 12% while the spot price of crude oil may have risen a lower amount, e.g., only 10%. Similarly, the spot price of crude oil could have fallen 10% while the value of an investment in the futures contract might have fallen another amount, e.g., only 8%. Over time, if backwardation remained constant, this difference between the spot price and the futures contract price would continue to increase.
If the futures market is in contango, an investor would be buying a next month futures contract for a higher price than the current near month futures contract. Again, assuming the near month futures contract is $50 per barrel, the price of the next month futures contract might be $51 per barrel, or 2% more expensive than the front month futures contract. Hypothetically, and assuming no other changes, the value of the $51 next month futures contract would fall to $50 as it approaches expiration. In this example, the value of an investment in the second month would tend to underperform the spot price of crude oil. As a result, it would be possible for the new near month futures contract to rise only 10% while the spot price of crude oil may have risen a higher amount, e.g., 12%. Similarly, the spot price of crude oil could have fallen 10% while the value of an investment in the second month futures contract might have fallen another amount, e.g., 12%. Over time, if contango remained constant, this difference between the spot price and the futures contract price would continue to increase.
The chart below compares the daily price of the near month crude oil futures contract to the price of the 13th month crude oil futures contract (i.e., a contract one year forward) over the last 10 years. When the price of the near month futures contract is higher than the price of the 13th month futures contract, the market would be described as being in backwardation. When the price of the near month futures contract is lower than the 13th month futures contract, the market would be described as being in contango. Although the price of the near month futures contract and the price of the 13th month futures contract tend to move together, it can be seen that at times the
near month futures contract prices are higher than the 13th month futures contract prices (backwardation) and, at other times, the near month futures contract prices are lower than the 13th month futures contract prices (contango).
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An alternative way to view the same data is to subtract the dollar price of the 13th month crude oil futures contract from the dollar price of the near month crude oil futures contract, as shown in the chart below. When the difference is positive, the market is in backwardation. When the difference is negative, the market is in contango. The crude oil market spent time in both backwardation and contango during the last ten years.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An investment in a portfolio that owned only the near month crude oil futures contract would likely produce a different result than an investment in a portfolio that owned an equal number of each of the near 12 months of crude oil futures contracts. Generally speaking, when the crude oil futures market is in backwardation, a portfolio of only the near month crude oil futures contract may tend to have a higher total return than a portfolio of 12 months of the crude oil futures contract. Conversely, if the crude oil futures market was in contango, the portfolio containing only 12 months of crude oil futures contracts may tend to outperform the portfolio holding only the near month crude oil futures contract.
Historically, the crude oil futures markets have experienced periods of contango and backwardation, with backwardation being in place somewhat less often than contango since oil futures trading started in 1983. Following the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008, the crude oil market moved into contango and remained primarily in contango until 2013. In 2014, global crude oil inventories grew rapidly after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ("OPEC") voted to defend its market share against U.S. shale-oil producers, resulting in another period during which the crude oil market remained primarily in contango. This period of contango continued through December 31, 2017. Declining global crude oil inventories caused the market to flip into backwardation at the beginning of 2018 through late October 2018, at which point ongoing supply growth in the U.S., combined with increased OPEC production, once again led market participants to fear another global glut of crude oil. The crude oil market was primarily in contango the first half of 2019 and in backwardation during the second half of 2019. Crude oil flipped back into contango in January 2020 and remained predominantly in contango throughout 2020.
In March 2020, contango dramatically increased and reached historic levels during the economic crisis arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, related supply chain disruptions and ongoing disputes among oil producing countries. This level of contango was due to significant market volatility that occurred in crude oil markets as well as oil futures markets. Crude oil prices collapsed in the wake of
the COVID-19 demand shock, which reduced global petroleum consumption, and the price war launched by Saudi Arabia at the beginning of March 2020 in response to Russia's unwillingness to participate in extending previously agreed upon supply cuts. An estimated twenty million barrels a day of crude demand evaporated as a result of quarantines and massive drops in industrial and manufacturing activity. Eventually, the United States, OPEC, Russia, and other oil producers around the world agreed to a historic 9.7 million barrel per day cut to crude supply. The supply cut along with the partial reopening of economies during the third quarter of 2020 reduced some of the unprecedented volatility that oil markets experienced in the Spring of 2020.
During the twelve months ended December 31, 2020, the crude oil futures market spent time in both a state of contango and backwardation as measured by the difference between the front month and the second month contract, whereas the crude oil futures market has primarily been in a state of backwardation since 2021 as measured by the difference between the front month and the second month contract.
As a result of market and regulatory conditions, including significant market volatility, large numbers of USO shares purchased during a short period of time, applicable regulatory accountability levels and position limits on oil futures contracts and risk mitigation measures that were taken by USO and USO's FCM in 2020, USO invested in Oil Futures Contracts with expiration dates for months later than that of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Holdings in later month contracts will typically cause USO to experience lesser effects from contango and backwardation than would be the case if USO's holdings were primarily in oil futures contracts in the first month or second month. Beginning with the monthly roll in September 2023 and ending with the monthly roll in January 2024, USO transitioned its investment portfolio to primarily invest in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, consistent with USO's investment strategy prior to the Spring of 2020. However, USO has had, and will continue to have, the ability to invest in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and Other Oil-Related Investments, such as OTC swaps, and USO may make such investments if market conditions (including but not limited to those allowing USO to obtain greater liquidity (i.e., liquidity requirements) or to execute transactions with more favorable pricing), regulatory requirements (including, but not limited to, exchange accountability levels and position limits imposed by NYMEX as well as statutory or regulatory limits), risk mitigation measures (including those that may be taken by USO, USO's FCMs, counterparties or other market participants), liquidity requirements, or other factors require USO to do so in order to meet its investment objective. USO may invest in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and/or Other Oil-Related Investments, as a result of, or in response to, any of the foregoing factors. In addition, USO may need to hold significant portions of its portfolio in cash beyond what it has historically held for reasons including (but not limited to) the need to address the changes in market conditions, regulatory requirements or risk mitigation measures or the need to satisfy potential margin requirements.
Crude Oil Market. During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the price of the front month WTI crude oil futures contract traded in a range between $57.13 to $80.04. Prices decreased (13.04)% from December 31, 2024 through September 30, 2025, finishing the quarter at $62.37.
The early 2020's witnessed extraordinary events in global financial markets, and crude oil offered no exception. During the first half of 2020, simultaneous demand and supply shocks led to unparalleled risk and volatility in oil futures markets. The oil demand shock was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil supply shock was caused by a Saudi-Russia price war. These twin shocks, which had never occurred at the same time before, caused several unprecedented effects. First, the front month WTI Oil Futures Contract traded at negative prices for the first and only time in history. Crude oil hit an all-time closing low of $(37.63) on April 20, 2020. Second, annualized volatility of front month WTI crude oil futures prices reached 984% in May 2020 after averaging 25% in the first two months of 2020 and 35% in 2019. The volatility includes several record-breaking returns that occurred between March and May of 2020. Third, WTI Oil Futures Contracts, which typically move together (i.e., increase or decrease) about 99% of the time, often moved in opposite directions, with daily correlation dropping to (24%). Fourth, futures curves, which can exhibit conditions known as "contango" and "backwardation" (as discussed above), moved into an extreme formation that some market experts referred to as "super contango." This was a result of extreme bearishness in spot prices, which saw the front month WTI Oil Futures Contract detach from the rest of the futures curve and fall to an extreme position relative to later dated futures contracts. USO, among other market participants, diversified its portfolio away from the front of the futures curve in favor of deferred contract months.
As economies reopened and OPEC+ supply cuts were absorbed by the market, WTI crude oil prices rose from all-time lows and conditions for a new bull market emerged. Bullish fundamentals for crude oil prices were already in place when Russia invaded Ukraine in February of 2022. The war led to another round of heightened volatility and higher prices. Crude oil peaked in May 2022, then declined for the remainder of the year. Since early 2023, crude oil prices have traded mostly between approximately $65 to $80, with several prominent price reversals.
In the third quarter of 2025, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.4 mbd. U.S. production rose significantly over the last five years. OPEC crude production declined from late 2022 through the third quarter of 2024 as the cartel supported prices with overall quotas and voluntary output cuts by certain countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. OPEC output rose during the nine months ending September 30, 2025, but remained below pre- and post-pandemic highs. OPEC fiercely supported prices with voluntary cuts and production quotas from mid-2022 to late 2024. The cartel announced plans to begin unwinding voluntary cuts and increasing quotas in 2024 and has begun to do so after delaying and adjusting these plans several times. While OPEC has steadily increased output several times in 2025, it has also reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining oil market stability and retains the flexibility to change plans as market conditions warrant. Nevertheless, the long-expected and repeatedly delayed reduction of quotas and voluntary cuts is finally underway. While not a complete policy reversal, the "OPEC put" which kept a floor on prices over the last several years has likely moved lower . Russia and OPEC have still not returned to pre-pandemic production levels, while the U.S. has become the world's largest crude oil producing nation and other oil producing nations have also increased their output. In the U.S., the Trump administration has aggressively called for increased domestic production and its actions have and will make more drilling possible. However, U.S. drillers have shown restraint in recent years, and production may not rise as much in the future as it has in the recent past. Technology, geology, and economics tend to be larger determinants of U.S. production levels than political policy.
In April of 2025, the Trump administration announced large and widespread tariffs on trading partners. While no tariffs on crude oil itself were announced, and the administration later paused tariff implementation and announced changing tariff levels on a country-by-country basis, the overall impact of the administration's actions may increase the risk of a global economic slowdown or recession, which would reduce demand for crude oil. As negotiations with trading partners continue, final trade policy remains elusive and crude oil prices may be volatile as a result.
The current geopolitical situation adds complexity to the supply-demand equation. In June of 2025, Israel and the United States attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, raising speculation that Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. As approximately 20% of global petroleum consumption transits the Strait daily, this could have a significant effect on prices. As it stands, Iran did not close the Strait, and prices fell back to the mid-$65 range after briefly topping $75. Global tensions, with existing and potential conflicts in various regions, remain a flash point for risk to crude oil supply, which could raise prices. Conversely, any resolution of geopolitical conflicts could ease supply disruptions, sanctions, and price volatility, which could lower prices.
Crude Oil Price Movements in Comparison to Other Energy Commodities and Investment Categories. USCF believes that investors frequently measure the degree to which prices or total returns of one investment or asset class move up or down in value in concert with another investment or asset class. Statistically, such a measure is usually done by measuring the correlation of the price movements of the two different investments or asset classes over some period of time. The correlation is scaled between 1 and -1, where 1 indicates that the two investment options move up or down in price or value together, known as "positive correlation," and -1 indicates that they move in completely opposite directions, known as "negative correlation." A correlation of 0 would mean that the movements of the two are neither positively nor negatively correlated, known as "non-correlation." That is, the investment options sometimes move up and down together and other times move in opposite directions.
For the ten-year time period between September 30, 2015 and September 30, 2025, the table below compares the monthly movements of crude oil prices versus the monthly movements of the prices of several other energy commodities, such as natural gas, diesel-heating oil, and unleaded gasoline, as well as several major non-commodity investment asset classes, such as large cap U.S. equities, U.S. government bonds and global equities.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Crude Oil - 10 Years
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Large Cap US |
|
US Gov't Bonds |
|
Global Equities |
|
Unleaded |
|
Heating |
|
Natural |
|
Crude |
|
Correlation Matrix 10 Years |
Equities (S&P 600) |
(BEUSG4 Index) |
(FTSE World Index) |
Gasoline |
Oil |
Gas |
Oil |
|||||||
|
Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500) |
|
1.000 |
|
0.148 |
|
0.979 |
|
0.414 |
|
0.189 |
|
0.097 |
|
0.360 |
|
US Gov't Bonds (BEUSG4 Index) |
|
|
|
1.000 |
|
0.169 |
|
(0.172) |
|
(0.371) |
|
(0.135) |
|
(0.247) |
|
Global Equities (FTSE World Index) |
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
0.446 |
0.219 |
0.048 |
0.392 |
|||||
|
Unleaded Gasoline |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
0.616 |
(0.001) |
0.749 |
||||
|
Heating Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
0.039 |
0.767 |
|||
|
Natural Gas |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
0.007 |
||
|
Crude Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX
The table below covers a more recent, but much shorter, range of dates than the above table.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Crude Oil - 1 Year
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Large Cap US |
|
US Gov't Bonds |
|
Global Equities |
|
Unleaded |
|
Heating |
|
Natural |
|
Crude |
|
Correlation Matrix 1 Year |
Equities (S&P 500) |
(BEUSG4 Index) |
(FTSE World Index) |
Gasoline |
Oil |
Gas |
Oil |
|||||||
|
Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500) |
|
1.000 |
|
0.164 |
|
0.962 |
|
(0.398) |
|
0.268 |
|
0.058 |
|
0.129 |
|
US Gov't Bonds (BEUSG4 Index) |
|
|
1.000 |
|
0.304 |
|
(0.340) |
|
(0.286) |
|
0.323 |
|
(0.448) |
|
|
Global Equities (FTSE World Index) |
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
(0.444) |
0.172 |
(0.045) |
(0.012) |
|||||
|
Unleaded Gasoline |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
0.392 |
(0.262) |
0.690 |
||||
|
Heating Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
(0.171) |
0.802 |
|||
|
Natural Gas |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
(0.009) |
||
|
Crude Oil |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.000 |
Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX
Investors are cautioned that the historical price relationships between crude oil and various other energy commodities, as well as other investment asset classes, as measured by correlation may not be reliable predictors of future price movements and correlation results. The results pictured above would have been different if a different range of dates had been selected. USCF believes that crude oil has historically not demonstrated a strong correlation with equities or bonds over long periods of time. However, USCF also believes that in the future it is possible that crude oil could have long term correlation results that indicate prices of crude oil more closely track the movements of equities or bonds. In addition, USCF believes that, when measured over time periods shorter than ten years, there will always be some periods where the correlation of crude oil to equities and bonds will be either more strongly positively correlated or more strongly negatively correlated than the long term historical results suggest.
The correlations between crude oil, natural gas, diesel-heating oil and gasoline are relevant because USCF endeavors to invest USO's assets in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments so that daily changes in percentage terms in USO's per share NAV correlate as closely as possible with daily changes in percentage terms in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. If certain other fuel-based commodity futures contracts do not closely correlate with the crude-oil futures contract, then their use could lead to greater tracking error. As noted above, USCF also believes that the changes in percentage terms in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract will closely correlate with changes in percentage terms in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil.
Critical Accounting Policies
Preparation of the financial statements and related disclosures in compliance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America requires the application of appropriate accounting rules and guidance, as well as the use of estimates. USO's application of these policies involves judgments and actual results may differ from the estimates used.
USCF has evaluated the nature and types of estimates that it makes in preparing USO's financial statements and related disclosures and has determined that the valuation of its investments, which are not traded on a United States or internationally recognized futures exchange (such as forward contracts and OTC swaps) involves a critical accounting policy. The values which are used by USO for its Oil Futures Contracts are provided by its commodity broker who uses market prices when available, while OTC swaps are valued based on the present value of estimated future cash flows that would be received from or paid to a third party in settlement of these derivative contracts prior to their delivery date and valued on a daily basis. In addition, USO estimates interest and dividend income on a daily basis using prevailing rates earned on its cash and cash equivalents. These estimates are adjusted to the actual amount received on a monthly basis and the difference, if any, is not considered material.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
USO has not made, and does not anticipate making, use of borrowings or other lines of credit to meet its obligations. USO has met, and it is anticipated that USO will continue to meet, its liquidity needs in the normal course of business from the proceeds of the sale of its investments, or from the Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents that it intends to hold at all times. USO's liquidity needs include: redeeming shares, providing margin deposits for its existing Oil Futures Contracts or the purchase of additional Oil Futures Contracts and posting collateral for its OTC swaps, if applicable, and payment of its expenses, summarized below under "Contractual Obligations."
USO currently generates cash primarily from: (i) the sale of baskets consisting of 100,000 shares ("Creation Baskets") and (ii) income earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents. USO has allocated substantially all of its net assets to trading in Oil Interests. USO invests in Oil Interests to the fullest extent possible without being leveraged or unable to satisfy its current or potential margin or collateral obligations with respect to its investments in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments. A significant portion of USO's NAV is held in cash and cash equivalents that are used as margin and as collateral for its trading in Oil Interests. The balance of the assets is held in USO's account at its custodian bank and in investments in money market funds and Treasuries at the FCMs. Income received from USO's investments in money market funds and Treasuries is paid to USO. During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USO's expenses did not exceed the income USO earned and the cash earned from the sale of Creation Baskets and the redemption of Redemption Baskets. During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USO did not use other assets to pay expenses. To the extent income exceeded expenses, USO's NAV will be positively impacted.
Although permitted to do so under its LP Agreement, USO has not leveraged, and does not intend to leverage, its assets through borrowings or otherwise, and USO makes its investments accordingly. Consistent with the foregoing, USO's investments will take into account the need for USO to maintain adequate liquidity to meet its margin and collateral requirements and to avoid, to the extent reasonably possible, USO becoming leveraged. If market conditions require it, these risk reduction procedures, including changes to USO's investments, may occur on short notice.
USO does not and will not borrow money or use debt to satisfy its margin or collateral obligations in respect of its investments, but it could become leveraged if USO were to hold insufficient assets that would allow it to meet not only the current, but also future, margin or collateral obligations required for such investments. Such a circumstance could occur if USO were to hold assets that have a value of less than zero.
USCF endeavors to have the value of USO's Treasuries, cash and cash equivalents, whether held by USO or posted as margin or other collateral, at all times approximate the aggregate market value of its obligations under its Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments.
USO's investments in Oil Interests may be subject to periods of illiquidity because of market conditions, regulatory considerations and other reasons. For example, most commodity exchanges limit the fluctuations in futures contracts prices during a single day by regulations referred to as "daily limits." During a single day, no trades may be executed at prices beyond the daily limit. Once the price of a futures contract has increased or decreased by an amount equal to the daily limit, positions in the contracts can neither be taken nor liquidated unless the traders are willing to effect trades at or within the specified daily limit. Such market conditions could prevent USO from promptly liquidating its positions in Futures Contracts. During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USO did not purchase or liquidate any of its positions while daily limits were in effect; however, USO cannot predict whether such an event may occur in the future.
Since the March 23, 2007, USO has been responsible for expenses relating to: (i) management fees, (ii) brokerage fees and commissions, (iii) licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, (iv) ongoing registration expenses in connection with offers and sales of its shares subsequent to the initial offering, (v) other expenses, including tax reporting costs, (vi) fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and (vii) other extraordinary expenses not in the ordinary course of business.
USO may terminate at any time, regardless of whether USO has incurred losses, subject to the terms of the LP Agreement. In particular, unforeseen circumstances, including, but not limited to, (i) market conditions, regulatory requirements, risk mitigation measures (including those that may be taken by USO, USO's FCMs, counterparties or other market participants) that would lead USO to determine that it could no longer foreseeably meet its investment objective or that USO's aggregate net assets in relation to its operating expenses or its margin or collateral requirements make the continued operation of USO unreasonable or imprudent, or (ii) adjudication of incompetence, bankruptcy, dissolution, withdrawal, or removal of USCF as the general partner of USO could cause USO, to terminate unless a majority interest of the limited partners within 90 days of the event elects to continue the partnership and appoints a successor general partner, or the affirmative vote of a majority in interest of the limited partners subject to certain conditions. However, no level of losses will require USCF to terminate USO. USO's termination would cause the liquidation and potential loss of an investor's investment. Termination could also negatively affect the overall maturity and timing of an investor's investment portfolio.
Market Risk
Trading in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments, such as forwards, involves USO entering into contractual commitments to purchase or sell oil at a specified date in the future. The aggregate market value of the contracts will significantly exceed USO's future cash requirements since USO intends to close out its open positions prior to settlement. As a result, USO is generally only subject to the risk of loss arising from the change in value of the contracts. USO considers the "fair value" of its derivative instruments to be the unrealized gain or loss on the contracts. The market risk associated with USO's commitments to purchase oil is limited to the aggregate market value of the contracts held. However, should USO enter into a contractual commitment to sell oil, it would be required to make delivery of the oil at the contract price, repurchase the contract at prevailing prices or settle in cash. Since there are no limits on the future price of oil, the market risk to USO could be unlimited.
USO's exposure to market risk depends on a number of factors, including the markets for oil, the volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates, the liquidity of the Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments markets and the relationships among the contracts held by USO. Drastic market occurrences could ultimately lead to the loss of all or substantially all of an investor's capital.
Credit Risk
When USO enters into Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments, it is exposed to the credit risk that the counterparty will not be able to meet its obligations. The counterparty for the Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX and on most other futures exchanges is the clearinghouse associated with the particular exchange. In general, in addition to margin required to be posted by the clearinghouse in connection with cleared trades, clearinghouses are backed by their members who may be required to share in the financial burden resulting from the nonperformance of one of their members and, therefore, this additional member support should significantly reduce credit risk. USO is not currently a member of any clearinghouse. Some foreign exchanges are not backed by their clearinghouse members but may be backed by a consortium of banks or other financial institutions. There can be no assurance that any counterparty, clearinghouse, or their members or their financial backers will satisfy their obligations to USO in such circumstances.
USCF attempts to manage the credit risk of USO by following various trading limitations and policies. In particular, USO generally posts margin and/or holds liquid assets that are approximately equal to the market value of its obligations to counterparties under the Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments it holds. USCF has implemented procedures that include, but are not limited to, executing and clearing trades only with creditworthy parties and/or requiring the posting of collateral or margin by such parties for the benefit of USO to limit its credit exposure. An FCM, when acting on behalf of USO in accepting orders to purchase or sell Oil Futures Contracts on United States exchanges, is required by CFTC regulations to separately account for and segregate as belonging to USO, all assets of USO relating to domestic Oil Futures Contracts trading. These FCMs are not allowed to commingle USO's assets with their other assets. In addition, the CFTC requires FCMs to hold in a secure account USO's assets related to foreign Oil Futures Contracts and, in some cases, to cleared swaps executed through the FCMs. Similarly, under its current OTC agreements, USO requires that collateral it posts or receives be posted with its custodian, and under agreements among the custodian, USO and its counterparties, such collateral is segregated.
USO may purchase OTC swaps in the future periods, see "Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk" in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q for a discussion of OTC swaps.
As of September 30, 2025, USO held cash deposits and short-term investments in the amount of $901,511,887 with the custodian and FCMs. Some or all of these amounts held by a custodian or an FCM, as applicable, may be subject to loss should USO's custodian or FCMs, as applicable, cease operations.
Off Balance Sheet Financing
As of September 30, 2025, USO had no loan guarantee, credit support or other off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind other than agreements entered into in the normal course of business, which may include indemnification provisions relating to certain risks that service providers undertake in performing services which are in the best interests of USO. While USO's exposure under these indemnification provisions cannot be estimated, they are not expected to have a material impact on USO's financial position.
Redemption Basket Obligation
In order to meet its investment objective and pay its contractual obligations described below, USO requires liquidity to redeem shares, which redemptions must be in blocks of 100,000 shares called "Redemption Baskets." USO has to date satisfied this obligation by paying from the cash or cash equivalents it holds or through the sale of its Treasuries in an amount proportionate to the number of shares being redeemed.
Contractual Obligations
USO's primary contractual obligations are with USCF. In return for its services, USCF is entitled to a management fee calculated daily and paid monthly as a fixed percentage of USO's NAV, currently 0.45% of NAV on its average daily total net assets.
USCF agreed to pay the start-up costs associated with the formation of USO, primarily its legal, accounting and other costs in connection with USCF's registration with the CFTC as a CPO and the registration and listing of USO and its shares with the SEC, FINRA and NYSE Arca (formerly, AMEX), respectively. However, since USO's initial offering of shares, offering costs incurred in connection with registering and listing additional shares of USO have been directly borne on an ongoing basis by USO, and not by USCF.
USCF pays the fees of the Marketing Agent as well as BNY Mellon's fees for performing administrative, custodial, and transfer agency services. BNY Mellon's fees for performing administrative services include those in connection with the preparation of USO's financial statements and its SEC, NFA and CFTC reports. USCF and USO have also entered into a licensing agreement with the NYMEX pursuant to which USO and the Related Public Funds, other than BNO, USCI and CPER, pay a licensing fee to the NYMEX. USO also pays the fees and expenses associated with its tax accounting and reporting requirements.
In addition to USCF's management fee, USO pays its brokerage fees (including fees to FCMs), OTC dealer spreads, any licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, and, subsequent to the initial offering, registration and other fees paid to the SEC, FINRA, or other regulatory agencies in connection with the offer and sale of shares, as well as legal, printing, accounting and other expenses associated therewith, and extraordinary expenses. The latter are expenses not incurred in the ordinary course of USO's business, including expenses relating to the indemnification of any person against liabilities and obligations to the extent permitted by law and under the LP Agreement, the bringing or defending of actions in law or in equity or otherwise conducting litigation and incurring legal expenses and the settlement of claims and litigation. Commission payments to FCMs are on a contract-by-contract, or round turn, basis. USO also pays a portion of the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF. See Note 3 to the Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited) in Item 1 of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
The parties cannot anticipate the amount of payments that will be required under these arrangements for future periods, as USO's per share NAVs and trading levels to meet its investment objective will not be known until a future date. These agreements are effective for a specific term agreed upon by the parties with an option to renew, or, in some cases, are in effect for the duration of USO's existence. Either party may terminate these agreements earlier for certain reasons described in the agreements.
As of September 30, 2025, USO's portfolio held 11,962 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX. As of September 30, 2025, USO did not hold any Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures. For a list of USO's current holdings, please see USO's website at www.uscfinvestments.com.
The end of day portfolio disclosed on USO's website would reflect any investments in Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and/or Other Oil-Related Investments, including any made in light of market conditions, regulatory requirements, risk mitigation measures (including those that may be taken by USO, USO's FCMs, counterparties or other market participants), liquidity requirements, or other factors. Independent of the USO website, USO may make available portfolio holdings information to Authorized Participants that reflects USO's anticipated holdings.