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Good Morning,

Citadel Securities says bull market drivers are 'firmly intact,' Robinhood is launching a VC fund to invest in YC-backed startups, Amazon hit a $3T market cap, DeepSeek's latest AI model is 100x cheaper than Claude, and Anthropic's CEO is concerned that new talent is only joining the firm for money.

Alumni Ventures is offering investors a chance to join their syndicate to invest in leading startups like Groq, Replit, and others. Learn more below.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks rallied yesterday after Trump called off Iran strikes to allow for talks (and for markets to rally)

  • Dow hit a fresh ATH

  • S&P is inches away from ATHs

• Europe's Stoxx 600 is inches away from ATHs

• Korea's stock market volatility is now exceeding the 2008 financial crisis

Earnings

• Palantir beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as government and commercial contracts surged 90% and 150% respectively (CNBC)

• Snap posted a Q2 loss but issued a strong sales forecast on improving momentum in their advertising business (CNBC)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: SpaceX, AMD, Spotify, McDonald's

  • Wednesday: Sandisk, Shopify, Uber, Eli Lilly, Circle, Walt Disney

  • Thursday: DraftKings, Airbnb

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Much easier to produce LLMs 5x cheaper than US peers if you simply distill them

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• Citadel Securities says bull market drivers are 'firmly intact' (BBG)

• Trump blasted Big Oil for 'making too much money' (WSJ)

• US manufacturing activity hit a four-year high (RT)

• Biggest firms report 'rock solid' profits as consumers face higher costs (FT)

• Bond traders flying blind on Fed see risk yields spiral (BBG)

• Bessent seen rebuffing Wall Street on US debt sale guidance (WSJ)

• Dip buyers need to heed the market's warning signs (BBG)

• Sponsors pushed for a bigger slice of continuation fund profits in H1 (PB)

• Stock-loving Korean president under fire over wild market swings (BBG)

• Korean firms expanded short-term debt funding before market rout (BBG)

• UK launches new push to revive London share trading (FT)

• India's IPO boom is fading (BBG)

• BlackRock is competing with megafunds in bid for Mexican projects (BBG)

• Amodei is concerned that new talent is joining Anthropic only for money (AX)

• Coatue's hedge fund sunk 8% in its worst month in a year (BBG)

• Catastrophe bond sales are set to break records on wildfire risks (BBG)

• Amazon hit a $3T market cap (CNBC)

• JPMorgan will invest $750B to Boost US housing and homeownership (WSJ)

• DeepSeek's latest AI model is 100x cheaper than Claude (RT)

• TikTok settled three teen social media lawsuits ahead of trial (RT)

• UBS will settle anti-money laundering violations with SEC for $125M (BBG)

• Treasury sued over lawsuit settlement payouts to Trump allies (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Hedge fund Yakira is pushing for Barry Diller's People Inc. to abandon its full takeover of $11B-listed MGM Resorts and instead pursue share buybacks

• Capvest Partners-backed radiopharma firm Curium will acquire peer Lantheus in an up to $8B deal at a 20% premium

• KKR will LBO ​medical device outsourcing company Integer Holdings in a $5.7B cash deal at a 50% premium

• Williams Cos. agreed to buy Momentum Midstream from PE firm EnCap Flatrock Midstream in a $5.5B cash and stock deal, including debt

• $2.67B-listed Supernus Pharmaceuticals and $4.5B-listed Indivior Pharmaceuticals agreed to an all-stock merger

• Italian electrical manufacturing firm Prysmian will acquire smaller US peer Atkore in a $3.8B cash deal at a 30% premium

• Visa will buy fraud intelligence provider BioCatch for $2.4B cash

• KKR will acquire a 50% stake in a $2.1B portfolio of renewables assets from TotalEnergies

• Mexico's largest meat exporter SuKarne is exploring a $2B sale

• Japanese trading house Itochu will buy 50% of US aircraft ​leasing business Aviation Capital Group from ‌Tokyo Century for $1.95B

• Malaysia's Malayan Banking agreed to buy out Belgian insurer Ageas' 31% stake in regional insurer Etiqa for $1.2B

• American Family Mutual will buy the remaining stake it does not already ​own in Bowhead Specialty in an all-cash deal at $1.2B valuation at a 10% premium

• Japanese asset manager Orix agreed to buy UK airplane parts company AerFin in a $640M deal, including debt

• Pacific Equity Partners ‌offered to acquire Aussie vehicle-leasing firm FleetPartners for $535M at a 27% premium

• TotalEnergies will acquire Shell's European onshore renewables assets

• UAE lender Emirates NBD agreed to acquire HSBC's Egypt retail banking unit

• French broadcaster TF1 is weighing a sale of its production and distribution arm Studio TF1

• Investment firm Klesch Group acquired a Gelsenkirchen, Germany refinery from BP

• Italy's state lender CDP is studying two takeovers after clinching a deal for high-tech security firm T-Defence

VC

• Base Power, a backyard energy storage startup of Michael Dell's son, raised a $1B Series D at a $13B valuation led by Ribbit Capital, Addition, Valor Equity Partners, and JPMorgan's Strategic Investment Group

• Nuclear startup Valar Atomics raised a $1B Series B at a $6B post-money valuation led by Sequoia

• UK AI chip start-up Olix raised a $312M Series B at a $3.3B post-money valuation led by Fundomo

• Horizon3.ai, a cybersecurity startup, raised a $250M Series E at an over $2B valuation co-led by NightDragon and NEA

• June, an enterprise AI deployment startup, raised a $20M pre-seed round led by Marc Benioff's Time Ventures

• Andromeda Surgical, an autonomous surgery platform startup, raised a $15M Series A led by Standard Capital

• Actualyze AI, an enterprise AI governance and operations platform, raised a $7M seed round from Storm Ventures, Canaan Partners, and others

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• India is looking to list another 2.5% in Life Insurance Corp. to raise $1.3B, with an offer to offload an additional 4%

• China Mobile is considering selling its 7.8% stake in Thailand telecoms firm True Corp. worth $1.1B

• Nigerian financial services group First HoldCo plans to raise $1B in a share sale

• Eugenie Patri Sebastien, a family office linked to brewer AB InBev, sold $843M worth of shares

• ESG-focused pet food firm Open Farm plans to raise $285M at a $1.4B valuation in a Canada IPO

• The Blue Owl-backed non-opioid pain medicines developer Latigo Biotherapeutics is seeking to raise $290M at a $1.1B valuation in an IPO

• Janus Hnederson-backed cancer biotech BlossomHill Therapeutics is seeking to raise about $133M at a $500M valuation in an IPO

Debt

• Public Storage plans to lean on $2B in CMBSs to help fund its purchase of rival National Storage Affiliates

• Aston Martin creditors threatened legal action over plan to sell branding rights as part of a $740M debt financing deal led by BlackRock-owned HPS Investment Partners

• Laos state-owned power producer EDL-Generation sold $300M of junk dollar bonds

• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is looking to sell $230M of packaged insured loans in an initial deal

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• EchoStar's satellite internet unit Hughes Satellite Systems filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Funds / Secondaries

• KKR raised a record $19.2B for its fifth infrastructure fund

• FOF Adams Street Partners raised over $5B eighth secondaries fund and related vehicles

• Index Ventures raised $2B across a new seed-focused fund, a flagship VC fund, and a growth fund

• Insurance giant MetLife raises $1.2B for a third PE fund

• Robinhood is seeking to raise $200M its second listed VC fund which will invest in Y Combinator-backed

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Jim Cramer plans to sell all his Bitcoin on quantum computing fears

• An FBI agent was arrested for stealing $1M in crypto

• Michael Saylor says he's never sold his personal Bitcoin after Strategy dumps more

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• Bloomberg published an interesting deep dive on how AQR grew to become the world's biggest and preeminent quant hedge fund by helping rich people avoid taxes.

• WSJ published a profile on Indiana University's student-run real estate investment business, Sample Gates Management. A group that is not only raising it's own independent capital but also posting stellar returns. The non-targets are on the rise.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.