NAR’s Yun: Significant Pent-Up Housing Demand Could Be Released as Supply, Affordability and Confidence Improve

NEW ORLEANS (November 6, 2026) - The U.S. housing market has significant potential demand that could be released once housing supply and affordability improve and consumer confidence picks up, according to National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Yun delivered his economic and housing outlook today during the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at NAR NXT in New Orleans.

Yun compared today's economy with the year 2000. Since then, the U.S. population has grown from 281 million to 350 million, and payroll jobs have risen from 132 million to 159 million. Housing wealth has grown from $7 trillion to $35 trillion. Yet existing-home sales are running near 4 million this year, below the 5.2 million homes sold in 2000.

"Affordability is tough, but people's incomes are rising, and if somehow mortgage rates go down, think about the potential housing demand that could be released to the marketplace," Yun said.

On supply, Yun noted that inventory has risen as sales have slowed. Months' supply is at its highest level since 2015, and the median home took 33 days to go from listing to contract in September.

"Homes are staying on the market a little longer than before," Yun said. "With longer days on market, you have to be realistic to the market condition. Otherwise, buyers will reject the homes on the market."

Yun said a rebound in consumer confidence would also be key. Consumer sentiment has fallen to roughly half its 2000 level and is now worse than during the Great Recession, even as the economy has added jobs.

"If we can boost confidence levels, maybe that can also change the dynamics," Yun said.

Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, presented highlights from the newly released 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. First-time buyers made up 22% of all buyers, near the historic low, and the median age of first-time buyers held at a record-high 40.

"First-time home buyers are struggling," Lautz said. "They're not struggling just with housing affordability. They're also struggling with rent. They're struggling with student loan debt, and a rising issue for first-time home buyers is childcare costs."

Sellers stayed in their homes for a median of 12 years before selling, the longest on record.

"The golden handcuffs of low interest rate mortgages is true. People are holding on to those properties for longer periods of time," said Lautz. "It's why we need to build more housing inventory-especially affordable housing inventory-for the potential first-time home buyers who are out there."

Use of real estate professionals remained strong: 90% of buyers purchased through an agent, the highest share in four decades, and a record 92% of sellers used an agent.

"Sellers want agents to price that home competitively, find that qualified buyer, help with marketing, and make sure they get to the closing table in a time frame that they need to do so," Lautz said.

About the National Association of REALTORS®

The National Association of REALTORS® is involved in all aspects of residential and commercial real estate. The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. For free consumer guides about navigating the homebuying and selling transaction processes-from written buyer agreements to negotiating compensation-visit facts.realtor.

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Information about NAR is available at nar.realtor. This and other news releases are posted in the newsroom at nar.realtor/newsroom. Statistical data in this release, as well as other tables and surveys, are posted in the "Research and Statistics" tab.