What Will Decide Johnson & Johnson Stock Over The Next Six Months

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock returned 41.5% over the past twelve months, compared with 15.3% for the S&P 500. Management said on the October 13 call that the company will finish 2026 strong and that 2027 will be an even better year. For that to happen, 2027 earnings must absorb the cost of two recent deals, and MedTech sales have to grow faster again. Below are the events most likely to move Johnson & Johnson stock over the next six months.

Johnson & Johnson's Outlook For 2027

Johnson & Johnson will give more detail on its 2027 outlook at its enterprise business review on December 8, 2026. The sales side holds so far: management raised the midpoint of its 2026 operational sales guidance on October 13 and narrowed the range.

Earnings are less settled. Management expects the Firefly Bio acquisition and the Cell BioMedicines collaboration to lower adjusted earnings by $1.36 a share in 2027, more than double the $0.64 a share they cost in 2026. Johnson & Johnson has to make up that difference elsewhere in the business for adjusted earnings to grow in 2027.

Johnson & Johnson's comments on 2027 adjusted earnings at the December review are the thing to watch.

MedTech Sales Growth In January

Johnson & Johnson is expected to report fiscal Q4 2026 results in January 2027, and MedTech is the business that lagged in the latest quarter. MedTech sales rose 2.5% in fiscal Q3 2026, against 7.9% for Innovative Medicine, and management said the segment fell short of its own expectations.

MedTech is no side business. It brought in $33.8 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025. Management pointed to tougher competition in electrophysiology, most of all in Asia-Pacific, and to lower patient volume at Abiomed. On the October 13 call, management also said its most urgent task is to fix what it already has.

MedTech's sales growth in the fiscal Q4 2026 report is the figure to watch.

The Ovarian Talc Settlement

Johnson & Johnson announced an agreement in July 2026 to resolve the ovarian talc litigation, and its cost is already in the company's fiscal Q3 2026 reported results. Claimants still have to sign on: the agreement holds only if at least 95% of them take part.

The settlement is $5.5 billion, representing about a fifth of the $25.5 billion of operating income the company earned over the past twelve months. The share of claimants who sign on is the measure to watch in the company's updates.

Can You Hold Johnson & Johnson Through These Dates?

You can if you are ready for a fall like the one from March 2 to May 8, 2026. The share price dropped 11.0% during that period, marking its largest fall from a high over the past year. The shares also fell 3.7% over the sessions around the October 13 call.

Johnson & Johnson expects U.S. approval of RYBREVANT FASPRO in advanced head and neck cancer by the end of 2026. It gives its 2027 outlook, deal costs included, in December. MedTech has already fallen short once, so its sales growth in the January 2027 report is the more telling result.

You could keep a position through these dates if it is small enough that a repeat of the March to May fall would not make you sell.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

The next six months hold several dates that could move Johnson & Johnson sharply. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

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