1. Melinda Roth Quoted on Prediction Markets

Melinda Roth Quoted on Prediction Markets In recent articles in the Financial Times and Front Office Sports, Roth discussed sports betting and the rise of prediction markets.

By Law Communications
September 18, 2025

Washington and Lee law professor Melinda Roth was quoted recently in press articles examining the rise of prediction markets, which offer event contracts on elections as well as cultural, financial, and economic issues, but now also offer sports too.

In traditional sports betting, now legal in 39 states following the 2018 Supreme Court decision that struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), odds on the outcomes of sporting events are established by a bookmaker. But in prediction markets, bettors buy "shares" to trade against each other on the outcomes of events, with the prices fluctuating as more predictions are made.

Traditional sportsbooks are subject to fees and guidelines and are regulated on a state-by-state basis, including regulators from states where Native American tribes have a sports betting interest. Prediction markets, such as those run by Kalshi and Polymarket, argue that they are under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal agency that has thus far taken a hands-off approach. Multiple states and tribes have sued as prediction markets seek to take a bite out of the $14 billion gambling industry.

Speaking to the Financial Times (available with subscription), Professor Roth said these court disputes were likely to end in a circuit split, leaving it to the U.S. Supreme Court to determine how prediction exchanges can operate. She says the controversy boils down to whether sports event contracts should be legally considered gaming.

"The issue is whether or not the tribes can successfully argue these are under the gaming umbrella, or whether Kalshi can argue they should be considered derivatives," Roth told Front Office Sports.

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