EIA - Energy Information Administration
10/07/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/07/2025 10:11
EIA adjusts forecast for U.S. oil production as producers set a record in July 2025
U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 7, 2025
EIA adjusts forecast for U.S. oil production as producers set a record in July 2025
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, both slightly higher than the agency's September forecast.
EIA data show U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of more than 13.6 million barrels per day in July, which was higher than EIA's previous production estimate.
| U.S. energy market indicators | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $81 | $69 | $52 |
| Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) | $3.30 | $3.10 | $2.90 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) | $2.20 | $3.40 | $3.90 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 15 | 16 |
| Shares of U.S. electricity generation | |||
| Natural gas | 42% | 40% | 40% |
| Coal | 16% | 17% | 16% |
| Renewables | 23% | 24% | 26% |
| Nuclear | 19% | 18% | 18% |
| U.S. GDP (percentage change) | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
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Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2025 Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. |
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Highlights from the October STEO include:
- Global oil prices: EIA expects global production of crude oil and petroleum products to increase through 2026, leading to continued growth in global petroleum inventories. This inventory growth pushes oil prices down in EIA's forecast, with the Brent crude oil price declining to average $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026.
- Global oil production: EIA once again expects oil production growth to be led by countries outside of OPEC+. Although OPEC+ has announced a significant rebound in its oil production targets, EIA expects OPEC+ production will remain below announced targets, preventing inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and limiting the decrease in oil prices.
- Uncertainty: Significant uncertainties remain for both oil supply and demand, which could affect EIA's forecast for oil prices. The October STEO forecast was completed before the announcement of the fire at Chevron's El Segundo refinery, which accounts for 17% of California's refinery capacity. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil ports have raised market concerns that oil production or exports could be disrupted. In addition, uncertainty persists about how long China will continue to purchase oil to build its domestic inventories, a trend that EIA believes has propped up oil prices recently.
- U.S. crude oil production: EIA's latest data show U.S. crude oil production reached a record-high 13.6 million barrels per day in July, which was higher than previous EIA estimates and raised the starting point for EIA's October forecast. EIA continues to expect crude oil production will decline from its recent peak as oil prices fall, but it revised its forecasts upward for average 2025 and 2026 U.S. crude oil production to 13.5 million barrels per day in both years.
- Natural gas prices: EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from just under $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in September to $4.10 per MMBtu in January. The January forecast price is almost 50 cents/MMBtu lower than it was in the September STEO. Lower forecast natural gas prices largely reflect the expectation that U.S. natural gas production will be higher than previously forecast, leading to more natural gas in storage.
- LNG export capacity: The United States is expected to add 5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity in 2025 and 2026 as Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 come online. EIA expects the increased LNG export capacity will increase total U.S. LNG exports to 15 Bcf/d in 2025 and to 16 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 12 Bcf/d in 2024.
- Coal consumption: The electric power sector consumed 15% more coal in the first half of 2025 than in the first half of 2024, driven by higher electricity demand and higher natural gas prices. EIA expects increased coal consumption in the electric power sector to slow down in the second half of 2025 and to decrease in 2026 as generation from utility-scale solar facilities increases.
The full October 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.
The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.
EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, [email protected] EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, [email protected]
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