SASC Hearing Reviews New START Treaty Ahead of Expiration, Calls for Strengthened Nuclear Deterrence

WASHINGTON, D.C. - With the last remaining guardrails on U.S.-Russian nuclear arms set to expire, Senate defense leaders warned this week the United States is entering an era of strategic competition with no formal limits on Russian deployed intercontinental-range nuclear weapons. The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) convened national security experts to confront a post-New START world, as the treaty, which was signed in 2010, nears its Feb. 5 expiration. Russia's decision to halt U.S. inspections in 2022 effectively ended verification years early, undercutting President Ronald Reagan's enduring maxim to "trust, but verify."

"We've heard the empty promises before and Russia's record during the war in Ukraine is clear," said U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND), chair of the SASC Airland Subcommittee. "Commitments to de-escalation were followed by major strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets. Vladimir Putin says Russia will remain within New START limits for another year but refuses inspections, data sharing, or accountability. Compliance without verification isn't compliance, its theater, and Russia has shown us exactly how it treats rules it doesn't like."

China's rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal was never covered by the agreement.

"Russia signaled it will selectively follow arms control agreements, while at the same time China expands its nuclear forces without constraint," continued Cramer. "The U.S. can't afford to play by the rules alone and letting the New START Treaty expire isn't escalation, it's realism. It means we stop tying our hands while others cheat. It means rebuilding leverage, modernizing America's deterrent, and making sure future negotiations start from strength."

Under the New START Treaty, the United States and Russia agreed to:

• No more than 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments
• 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments
• 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments
• On-site inspections and data exchanges to verify compliance

Citing war-related travel restrictions and U.S. sanctions, Russia blocked inspections in 2022 and then suspended its participation in the treaty, undercutting confidence in compliance. The U.S., meanwhile, continued to observe treaty limits. Russia's incompliance invalidated the treaty, but the rapid growth of China's nuclear arsenal also made the treaty functionally ineffective. The New START numbers were based on deterring one adversary, the Russians, but as Retired Admiral Charles Richard, former Commander of United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) said, the United States needs to be postured to deter against multiple adversaries' combined forces.

"I didn't have the luxury when I was at STRATCOM of deterring our opponents one at a time, I had to look at the collective," said Admiral Richard. "The simple numerical comparisons don't completely capture the complexity of what the U.S. has to have in order to deter two peers at the same time."

The New START Treaty was originally effective, and the U.S. should not stop looking for ways to responsibly limit the numbers and proliferation of nuclear weapons. Having a credible, modern nuclear capability not only deters America's adversaries, but it also deters allies from needing nuclear weapons programs of their own.

"In my conversation with the allies, the issue was less about treaties and more about capability and will," added Admiral Richard. "We have recently demonstrated will, […] but it's the capabilities we have or don't have that is a much bigger concern to our allies in terms of our ability to honor our extended deterrence commitments."

The hearing underscored that while treaties matter, they are only one tool in keeping America and its allies safe and adversaries deterred.

"President Trump has the skills to negotiate a treaty that better fits today's strategic environment," said Cramer. "Congress, the Pentagon, and our defense industrial base need to make sure he has the modernized nuclear deterrent needed to give him the greatest leverage."